ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Umm, Hello? Miami?


Or am I missing something?

if the xtrp model works for you then you are on to something here

[meriland23]

Look at this mess

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... _climo.gif

[KWT]

Yeah, though its fair to say history still does favour recurvers...for now!

Models still showing broadly a troughy pattern aloft down the E.coast, but as seems to often happen with these sorts of storms, the models are showing a right bias and taking this too far north too quickly.

[summersquall]

Thats the way it worked with Earl, it just kept on trucking along at nearly the exact same latitude as Katia is now and only made the turn right at the last minute.

I think this will have abit more latitude, but not sure its going to gain as much as some models are expecting right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow the NOGAPs has been so consistent I noticed. Bahamas and South Florida after that?

depends on the ridging.. I cant look at secure sites anyone have a nogaps link that is not a secure website ?

Try this one...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_atlantic&set=All

wont work.. its has https not http the s mean secure.

[meriland23]

18z model intensity update

http://icons-ecast.wunderground.com/dat ... ensity.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

What browser are you using?

[KWT]

Models still looking pretty agressive when it comes to the forecasted strength of Katia down the line, gonna depend on this shear really, given Earl had something similar seems reasonable to suggest shear probably will ease off with time...

[Aric Dunn]

ok im good now..

anyway.. looking at the 18z nogaps steering and 500mb heigts. is quite easy to see that recurve if the model continued would be after florida landfall

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[meriland23]

What browser are you using?

Me? Netscape 7 (on my old mac until my new one ships. Can't update browser) why? Can you guys see the photos?

[SouthFloridawx]

What browser are you using?

Me? Netscape 7 (on my old mac until my new one ships. Can't update browser) why? Can you guys see the photos?

We can see them, thanks. Aric was having problems with NOGAPS being it is a secure site.

[KWT]

ok im good now..

anyway.. looking at the 18z nogaps steering and 500mb heigts. is quite easy to see that recurve if the model continued would be after florida landfall

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Yeah thats pretty obvious looking at that run, good job its an outlier with regards to the strength of the upper ridge, most models show a totally different upper pattern down the east coast.

[Aric Dunn]

ok im good now..

anyway.. looking at the 18z nogaps steering and 500mb heigts. is quite easy to see that recurve if the model continued would be after florida landfall

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Yeah thats pretty obvious looking at that run, good job its an outlier with regards to the strength of the upper ridge, most models show a totally different upper pattern down the east coast.

except the cmc show something similar.. as well as the 12z euro with the east to west extensive ridge.. only problem with the euro was that it did a vanishing act with the ridging in under 24hours and replaced with a trough.. lol kind of like magic

oh and dont forget the ukmet either.. it has the strongest ridging

[bexar]

Katia looks pathetic right now on the latest visible... so much for the big fish everyone was anticipating for.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

NO DIRECT LINKING OF EMBEDDED IMAGES please. Refer to this thread for questions: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268

I have edited posts to link to the images instead.

[WeatherEmperor]

Oh boy that 18Z NOGAPS run looks soooooo similar to Floyd 99' doesn't it? Wow this is becoming interesting. Can't wait to see the GFDL and HWRF at 18Z....

[northjaxpro]

It is going to be quite an interesting Labor Day holiday weekend following the progress of Katia.

Things are still evolving constantly, but it looks like there will be enough ridging in my opinion to guide Katia westward up to at least 70 longitude. If the trend continues with the models for at least the next 36 hours or so, and if Katia has a semblence of being somewhat weaker than was anticipated , it is possible Katia may go farther west than that point before beginning a move northward. Katia is posing more and more to be a a close threat to areas along the CONUS East Coast by early next week.

This is really going to be a close call the ways things are looking right now. I hope that curve to the north will happen before Katia reaches 70 longitude to keep her away from the U.S. East Coast. So folks, we are in for some very interesting times ahead watching this system and the tropical entity in the GOM for the next week to ten days.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneWarning92]

hmm does anyone think the NHC will make drastic changes in the 11 pm update regarding the track or just noticeable changes?

[Aric Dunn]

18z Hwrf.. nice westerly bend. any models left that dont bend now ? although I still dont buy the sharp NNW turn considering the steering is still well in place.

[SouthFloridawx]

The models aren't handling that ginormous ULL very well.