ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

I am still looking at the weak llc to possibly relocate sse in that deep persistant convective mass in the central gulf. It has been blowing up down there all afternoon and evening. The ULL in central LA looks to be playing havoc with the northern part of TD13 although it is slowly moving nw away from it. Are we even sure a llc is still around 91-92w?

The next plane departs around 12:30 AM EDT. It may have the answer to that question.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
      A. 02/0600Z ,1200Z
      B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
      C. 02/0430Z
      D. 25.5N AND 95.5W
      E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
      F. SFC TO 15,000FT



[underthwx]

Deep burst of convection to the S.E. of the current center looks like an area to watch for a new center to form?




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Vortex, your link is not working. Might want to try again.

[crimi481]

I believe you can see the ULL in LA (and its tail in central gulf) is splitting away to west, leaving low level center in S Gulf area
No?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

[northjaxpro]

Deep burst of convection to the S.E. of the current center looks like an area to watch for a new center to form?




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I have speculated on that area reforming a new center all day. So now, we will wait until Recon gets in there in about a couple of hours to confirm if that is the case.

[Stormcenter]

I don't see anything that looks like a new center is reforming in the blobs many are mentioning. Looks like just cluster of storms associated with TD13 feeder bands, JMHO.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[underthwx]

If a new center forms much further south..do the forecasted troughs still pick the system up?...or do they miss the system?



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigB0882]

If the center does relocate further SE then could this pull what the Euro saw last night in that it misses the first trough, gets shoved SW by the ridge and then explodes only to be picked up by another trough and slams into LA as a major? That was a scary run and if it misses that trough by relocating I wonder if this will be on the table. Someone mentioned it continuing NW into TX but wasn't a ridge supposed to be building that would push it SW or has that all changed?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hopefully it will cycloneye. I'm no pro but looking at the infrared loops sure seems like something is trying to get started down around 25/89. An I surely can't find any evidence of a llc where the nhc has the forecast points right now.

[Frank P]

I believe you can see the ULL in LA (and its tail in central gulf) is splitting away to west, leaving low level center in S Gulf area
No?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

looking at that loop and inserting the NHC forcast points kinda looks on track to me.. .. hard to pinpoint much on IR but I'm not sure if I can buy in with the idea of the center has relocated further south right now.. never know with these things..

[psyclone]

I don't see anything that looks like a new center is reforming in the blobs many are mentioning. Looks like just cluster of storms associated with TD13 feeder bands, JMHO.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

i can't tell what's going on other than to observe that most of the convection has been located well away from the designated center, leading me to believe that a center relocation is at least a possibility.

[crimi481]

Are any Models (think I saw one) picking up a center reforming in s - or s.e. Gulf? (then go N.E. later)
Appears the ULL in LA pulling to N.W. - and its tail is splitting away from the low level center in s. Gulf?
Just looks that way?

[ROCK]

I see a 992 in there buts its the NAM....

[crimi481]

Sorry - here is link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir2.html

[cycloneye]

I don't see anything that looks like a new center is reforming in the blobs many are mentioning. Looks like just cluster of storms associated with TD13 feeder bands, JMHO.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

i can't tell what's going on other than to observe that most of the convection has been located well away from the designated center, leading me to believe that a center relocation is at least a possibility.

In about three hours,recon will have the answer to the question of where is the LLC.

[Wx_Warrior]

From KFDM 6 Chief Met (Beaumont TX) Greg Bostwick:

System in the Gulf should become a tropical storm by daybreak Friday. Slow motion to the northwest expected with the storm likely stalling to our southeast Saturday about 150 miles offshore. Eventual landfall is expected to our east Sunday night into Monday as a possible hurricane. Locally we should be on the dry side with winds likely to not exceed 30-40 mph on the coast. Another update around sunrise Friday.

[Wx_Warrior]

From KFDM 6 Chief Met (Beaumont TX) Greg Bostwick:

System in the Gulf should become a tropical storm by daybreak Friday. Slow motion to the northwest expected with the storm likely stalling to our southeast Saturday about 150 miles offshore. Eventual landfall is expected to our east Sunday night into Monday as a possible hurricane. Locally we should be on the dry side with winds likely to not exceed 30-40 mph on the coast. Another update around sunrise Friday.

[ROCK]

Like i said LLCs like to migrate to the lowest pressure ie being under strongest convection....

I cant tell if a center reformed more south but if it has then you can throw about all the models you see tonight out the window....

[Frank P]

From KFDM 6 Chief Met (Beaumont TX) Greg Bostwick:

System in the Gulf should become a tropical storm by daybreak Friday. Slow motion to the northwest expected with the storm likely stalling to our southeast Saturday about 150 miles offshore. Eventual landfall is expected to our east Sunday night into Monday as a possible hurricane. Locally we should be on the dry side with winds likely to not exceed 30-40 mph on the coast. Another update around sunrise Friday.

Did he say where it would go inland?

[Annie Oakley]

Bring on the Recon.........real data-real time.