NFLnut wrote:Not liking the western curve on the 11 pm!
Hope it's temporary!
Might come further westward in the short term due to its recent battles with shear/dry air but long term its should still recurve in my opinion.
ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
Might come further westward in the short term due to its recent battles with shear/dry air but long term its should still recurve in my opinion.
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meriland23
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Re:
SeminoleWind wrote:so what does the NHC see to want to make it bend back west toward the end oh their forecast period i wonder?
Quoting from nhc
"IN THE LONG RANGE...A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE KATIA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS"
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bamajammer4eva
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:mf_dolphin wrote:What's also strange is that the extrap shows NW where it should show the continuation of the present motion which at 5PM was West.
yeah I hate to say it ... microwave images and satellite all show west 280 motion its just now reaching 16N .... earlier at the 5pm they had it too far north now its even farther north.. almost like they are trying to fit it with their forecast as to not be off ? something is not right here.
Remarkably close to their advisory #1 forecast although its faster but I seriously doubt they would do that unless they are just keeping continuity until recon can get in and get a real fix
Advisory 1 forecast position for 06z Saturday
120H 03/0600Z 18.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
Current position LOCATION...16.7N 50.6W
Last edited by bamajammer4eva on Thu Sep 01, 2011 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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meriland23
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h72
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Aric Dunn
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Re: Re:
meriland23 wrote:SeminoleWind wrote:so what does the NHC see to want to make it bend back west toward the end oh their forecast period i wonder?
Quoting from nhc
"IN THE LONG RANGE...A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE KATIA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS"
except the 12z ECMWF heads straight west for more than 24hours before turning.. not "A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION" but hey technicalities.. right.. lol
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
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Aric Dunn
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well good night.. dont need to see anymore models since I know what they will say even if katia turns SW lol
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
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I believe the sky is falling...
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meriland23
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
SouthFloridawx wrote:meriland23 wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:You should cue the the theme for Monday Night Football.
Where is Hank Williams Jr. when you need him..
Just the beginning not the song...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rxwiI4aKIM
haha totally fitting.
May not be a football game, but it sure feels like someone kicked a ball really hard and it is still up in the air.
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SeminoleWind
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:meriland23 wrote:SeminoleWind wrote:so what does the NHC see to want to make it bend back west toward the end oh their forecast period i wonder?
Quoting from nhc
"IN THE LONG RANGE...A STRONG MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE
ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE KATIA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS"
except the 12z ECMWF heads straight west for more than 24hours before turning.. not "A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION" but hey technicalities.. right.. lol
AAHH guess i missed that part haven't been keeping up with Katia, first time i have been on here in like 2 days.
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meriland23
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h96
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
Crawling...she's not in a hurry to go anywhere that's for sure. High camped out overhead. A little stronger high and she is booking it west.
SFT
SFT
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
Looking at 108 hours...it's going to be a close call as to whether she gets left behind or not. Lee is once again in the picture throwing a wrench into the model machine!!!
SFT
SFT
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
At 120 hours starts moving west at around 26 north...High pressure sitting overhead of her...
I've seen this movie before somewhere!!!
SFT
I've seen this movie before somewhere!!!
SFT
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h120
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
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meriland23
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h144 looks due west
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meriland23
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h153
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meriland23
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h165
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
Looks like it may hit the field goal 
between the CONUS and Bermuda on this run. Either way you slice it this run is much further west than yesterday's 00z run. Looking forward to seeing the Euro when I get up in the AM.
SFT
between the CONUS and Bermuda on this run. Either way you slice it this run is much further west than yesterday's 00z run. Looking forward to seeing the Euro when I get up in the AM. SFT
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models
It's kinda reminding me of Andrew in '92.SouthFLTropics wrote:At 120 hours starts moving west at around 26 north...High pressure sitting overhead of her...
I've seen this movie before somewhere!!!
SFT
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