ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[hicksta]

24.3 inches of rain....

[South Texas Storms]

no way there is a LLC where they say it is....IMO...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html


warming cloud tops in that area....

Yeah there are only a few clouds over the LLC if it is still there. This could throw a huge wrench into the forecast if the center reformed to the SE like I think it did (agree with ya Rock on that and on throwing out all 0z models if it did relocate).

[mattpetre]

no way there is a LLC where they say it is....IMO...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html


warming cloud tops in that area....

Yeah there are only a few clouds over the LLC if it is still there. This could throw a huge wrench into the forecast if the center reformed to the SE like I think it did (agree with ya Rock on that and on throwing out all 0z models if it did relocate).

Anyone help with time on recon?

[paintplaye]

I am thinking the center is more around 25N 91W

[cycloneye]

Anyone help with time on recon?

Plane departs at 12:30 AM EDT.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

no way there is a LLC where they say it is....IMO...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html


warming cloud tops in that area....

I agree ROCK. At the least it is 1 1/2 degrees further south. See no kind of evidence of any llc. There has got to be some kind of bouys out there or links to rigs or something, right?

[South Texas Storms]

I am thinking the center is more around 25N 91W

Yeah I can see it being there or just slightly east of there. Very strong convection in that area.

[ROCK]

Anyone help with time on recon?

Plane departs at 12:30 AM EDT.

leaves in 10 minutes...should be a quick flight out...hopefully...they need to go south!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I think it was eaten by the ULL. But there was already one developing further south and east.

[mattpetre]

Do they ever run models at different times because of things like center reformations?

[Cranica]

After making landfall, what are we looking at after loss of tropical characteristics? If (probably he) lifts out to the northeast with a bunch of Gulf moisture, that'd be really bad for the northeast.

[crimi481]

It seams every storm -in Gulf - over last 2 years - which was forecast to strengthen (and NHC sais "conditions very favorable) has been basically "sheared" apart.

Atmosphere above Gulf waters has changed it seems. Is it chemicals from oil spill? Oil in the clouds? Just guessing
I have no clue, but a definate pattern last two years

This one may have chance to form, but may get entrained /absorbed into the big high (ring of fire) rotating over Texas region
Any thoughts? That is what happened to many storms near /in Gulf lately, and was not forecast - by anyone!
Was-up?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[mattpetre]

It seams every storm -in Gulf - over last 2 years - which was forecast to strengthen (and NHC sais "conditions very favorable) has been basically "sheared" apart.

Atmosphere above Gulf waters has changed it seems. Is it chemicals from oil spill? Oil in the clouds? Just guessing
I have no clue, but a definate pattern last two years

This one may have chance to form, but may get entrained /absorbed into the big high (ring of fire) rotating over Texas region
Any thoughts? That is what happened to many storms near /in Gulf lately, and was not forecast - by anyone!
Was-up?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Have to admit it still looks like shear has the best of it for now... I also must admit that I sometimes wonder how a large oil sheen might have affected our weather patterns at times. I mean hey if a butterfly can cause hurricanes, then it's pretty preposterous to think that an oil spill couldn't have any effect.

[Turtle]

Surprisingly the 0Z GFS actually brings more rain (~2") toward I-20 East Texas but drops off quickly 10 miles north.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wish they would get on the throttle. Im tired and need to go to bed. But on the other hand im very much intrigued as to what they will or will not find. Remnants of TD13=downgrade to open wave?

[psyclone]

It seams every storm -in Gulf - over last 2 years - which was forecast to strengthen (and NHC sais "conditions very favorable) has been basically "sheared" apart.

Atmosphere above Gulf waters has changed it seems. Is it chemicals from oil spill? Oil in the clouds? Just guessing
I have no clue, but a definate pattern last two years

This one may have chance to form, but may get entrained /absorbed into the big high (ring of fire) rotating over Texas region
Any thoughts? That is what happened to many storms near /in Gulf lately, and was not forecast - by anyone!
Was-up?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

i don't see anything out of the ordinary here. most storms that form directly in the gulf don't become hurricanes. the gulf gives birth to lots of sheared junk that lacks sufficient time to organize before landfall... resulting in ts landfalls. most gulf canes were already designated cyclones prior to entering the gulf. they got there via florida, the straits of fl or the northwestern caribbean sea.

[mattpetre]

Wish they would get on the throttle. Im tired and need to go to bed. But on the other hand im very much intrigued as to what they will or will not find. Remnants of TD13=downgrade to open wave?

Yeah I'm thinking 50/40/10% chances Open Wave/Center Reloc./Center still the same general area... (2mph away of course

I am tired too, not the warrior that some folks are.. although I think the overall quietness here means people are getting their sleep for the long weekend ahead.

[ROCK]

they wont run new models for this but will input them for tomorrow 06z runs...

[Rgv20]

Our favorite model the NOGAPS takes TD13 right until Houston than back until the GOM and than SW toward South Texas..

[South Texas Storms]

they wont run new models for this but will input them for tomorrow 06z runs...

So it looks like tomorrow's 12z runs could be very interesting with a possible new center and recon data probably in it.