ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[mattpetre]

Wish they would get on the throttle. Im tired and need to go to bed. But on the other hand im very much intrigued as to what they will or will not find. Remnants of TD13=downgrade to open wave?

Yeah I'm thinking 50/40/10% chances Open Wave/Center Reloc./Center still the same general area... (2mph away of course

I am tired too, not the warrior that some folks are.. although I think the overall quietness here means people are getting their sleep for the long weekend ahead.

If it does go back to being an open wave if even for a short time, that is one huge Tropical Wave now. I'm heading to bed, kinda surprised how quiet it is here considering the fact that tonight through tomorrow could have big implications for long term impacts.

[ROCK]

Our favorite model the NOGAPS takes TD13 right until Houston than back until the GOM and than SW toward South Texas..

the NOGAPS is always fun to look at...especially when it divides a storm into 3 parts and developes all 3....ha

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Anyone have news on recon? Are they on the way out yet?

[BigB0882]

Do they ever run models at different times because of things like center reformations?

I don't believe so. We will just have to wait until tomorrow for the new runs to initialize this in the right place. If it has dissolved into an open wave then we really can't even rely too heavily on future runs, they are always much better with a center to work with.

I think the model thread is awfully quiet tonight because most people know something is up and staying up tonight is probably pointless. I might be up for the Euro but I don't really care, I will be much more interested in tomorrows models since we will know what we are working with by then. Either way, my area looks to be very wet whether this is a TC or not, a track change due to relocation could cause changes in rain amounts though, that is for sure.

[South Texas Storms]

Our favorite model the NOGAPS takes TD13 right until Houston than back until the GOM and than SW toward South Texas..

the NOGAPS is always fun to look at...especially when it divides a storm into 3 parts and developes all 3....ha

So Rock are you taking all of tonight's 0z models with a grain of salt?

[Rgv20]

Our favorite model the NOGAPS takes TD13 right until Houston than back until the GOM and than SW toward South Texas..

the NOGAPS is always fun to look at...especially when it divides a storm into 3 parts and developes all 3....ha

In all seriousness tho it just goes to show that the NE option is not set in stone...yet.

[ROCK]

Our favorite model the NOGAPS takes TD13 right until Houston than back until the GOM and than SW toward South Texas..

the NOGAPS is always fun to look at...especially when it divides a storm into 3 parts and developes all 3....ha

So Rock are you taking all of tonight's 0z models with a grain of salt?

yes until I know where the center is....RECON is on the way....NOGAPS initialized on the old LLC...IMO...

[ROCK]

Anyone have news on recon? Are they on the way out yet?

RECON should have wheels up by now....no one posting obs tonight it seems.....

[South Texas Storms]

What track do you think it could take if it relocates closer to where you think it did? Or could all possibilities be open?

[Dave]

Still waiting on first set of hdobs to come in.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I see Dave is online. He did a really good job earlier today with the first mission. Maybe he could help us out? There he is. Sorry was a little late.

[BigB0882]

The biggest question for me with a center relocation would be if it will miss the trough expected to pick it up to the NE. If it misses that then who the heck knows!

Otherwise, if it still makes that connection, I assume landfall would just shift a little probably further East but I don't think necessarily a ton. NHC has landfall further East than some models so if the further West models are right then this could just end up right where NHC is showing anyway. That is why I have been saying I could see this still ending up in a similar landfall spot, even with relocation. Everything comes down to the connection with the trough, IMO.

I am not a professional met, MY OPINION ONLY!

[ROCK]

Still waiting on first set of hdobs to come in.

Dave is a warrior....I must say.....Dave you rock bro!!!

[Dave]

Here and waiting for hdobs to begin from tonights mission...

[Dave]

Still waiting on first set of hdobs to come in.

Dave is a warrior....I must say.....Dave you rock bro!!!

This warriors tired tonight...let's get the show going...lol

[ROCK]

What track do you think it could take if it relocates closer to where you think it did? Or could all possibilities be open?

track wise using current steering would be towards STX....maybe misses the trof but connects on the 2nd one spreading rain all across Texas to the EC.....who knows...its moving 2mph supposely...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I feel llike an old worn out warrior. I think im going to call it in soon. Someone just want to text me what recon finds later?

[ROCK]

I feel llike an old worn out warrior. I think im going to call it in soon. Someone just want to text me what recon finds later?

CM...this is what we do bro....during the 3 months out of the year....you got to pace yourself...

[South Texas Storms]

I feel llike an old worn out warrior. I think im going to call it in soon. Someone just want to text me what recon finds later?

CM...this is what we do bro....during the 3 months out of the year....you got to pace yourself...

Yeah Rock, you tell him! I'm about to fall asleep here. I've gotten 8 hours of sleep combined in the last 2 nights. These late nights of model watching better pay off with at least a few raindrops falling on my head in College Station!

[Dave]

I just keep pacing myself...NOAA; USAF; Archives (in case something slips through), recco's..in case theres comm problems...rinse & repeat...still waiting.