ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

CMC at 0hrs- looks good to me...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP000.gif

New CMC basically brings 13L on the same track as the GFS/NAM/Euro.

where did it initialized is the big question

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Staying home to watch it BigB where it will be nice and dry, even if I have to run the generator. Had tickets to go but sold them to my brother in exchange for a big favor. He has to take care of my dogs while we are in Barbados for 10 days in Oct.

[southerngale]

ROCK & CYCLONE MIKE - read this thread. It's really not hard at all and very quick once you learn how. I can help if you need more help.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268

[MississippiWx]

CMC at 0hrs- looks good to me...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP000.gif

New CMC basically brings 13L on the same track as the GFS/NAM/Euro.

where did it initialized is the big question

Unfortunately for Texas, initialization on the models isn't going to make much of a difference. The trough and steering are still going to be the same to the north. Believe me, I have all of my fans pointed westward because I have a big weekend planned and it involves outdoors!

[ROCK]

it initialized the old LLC but stalls this right around High Island east to LA TX Border....then up and out from there at 96hr...

[Nikki]

CMC at 0hrs- looks good to me...





Can't see this one, tells me it is disabled.

good because it was yesterdays run I posted.... my bad

Oh LOL!! The models give me a big enough headache by their selves, please don't help them!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks, will play with it tomorrow and give it a shot when im not so tired.

[BigB0882]

My big fear is that we have DirectTv and the damn thing goes out in a sprinkle sometimes. That is one reason we would rather be watching somewhere else. At least this isn't a home game, haha

[Wx_Warrior]

I agree with you Ole Miss WX

[ROCK]

New CMC basically brings 13L on the same track as the GFS/NAM/Euro.[/quote]

where did it initialized is the big question[/quote]

Unfortunately for Texas, initialization on the models isn't going to make much of a difference. The trough and steering are still going to be the same to the north. Believe me, I have all of my fans pointed westward because I have a big weekend planned and it involves outdoors![/quote]


I disagree....further south mean more water, less influence by the 1st trof....obvouisly misses the first one with the old LLC right at TX LA border....if the center has moved then it will miss the first one for sure with a blocking high over it.......

[stormhunter7]

appears to me, before we lose Sats... the low has moved sw.. and is near 26n 93w and moving sw. That leads me to think we will get a new low to form... most likely to the SE.

just my opinion and not official

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I hear ya. We had satellite out here for all of two days and i took it down and returned it myself. Was horrible. Of course with Demco our power goes out during summertime thunderstorms or when the sun shines to brightly on the substation. Already thinking I will have to hook the cable box and tv up to generator.

[South Texas Storms]

Yep I agree with you Rock. The further south it is, the more likely it is to miss the first trough and then head west probably when the ridge builds back in to its north.

[ROCK]

ROCK & CYCLONE MIKE - read this thread. It's really not hard at all and very quick once you learn how. I can help if you need more help.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111268

its that easy...thanks SG!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Sorry guys cant stay up any longer, have to go to bed. Guess I will get up and see what surprises show up in the morning. Talk to ya'll sometime tomorrow.

[ROCK]

CMC get is very very close to Galveston but off by 50 or so miles....parts of extreme SE Tx will see some rain for sure if that run verifies....that will help...but still it initializes to far north IMO....

[ROCK]

appears to me, before we lose Sats... the low has moved sw.. and is near 26n 93w and moving sw. That leads me to think we will get a new low to form... most likely to the SE.

just my opinion and not official

I agree...I hate losing sats this early...

[bexar]

somehow, I don't want this disturbance to reach TS strength anymore. Too many TS this season in contrast to storms reaching Hurricane status.

[Stormcenter]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SYSTEM
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

[South Texas Storms]

Good call Rock, it's more south. Imo, don't take the 0z models very seriously. Tomorrow's 12z models will be interesting...