ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

h204

[northjaxpro]

h168

This is the point in time in which I commented on above on this page when I was analyzing the EURO. If the models keep trending even just a bit farther west for the next set of future runs, I will really get concerned for the folks living along the Outer Banks of NC. At this point in time (168 H), if the curve doesn't take place or is delayed another 12-24 hours in time, that could make all the difference in the world from Katia either making landfall or approaching that region, or missing them offshore by 100-150 miles or so. This really looks to be an extremely close call as of now. We will have to watch future model runs to see how this evolves.

[meriland23]

h216

[meriland23]

h228 and she out of here

[Gustywind]

02/0615 UTC 16.4N 51.2W T3.5/3.5 KATIA
01/2345 UTC 16.3N 49.8W T3.5/3.5 KATIA

[meriland23]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[InstantWeatherMaps]

h228 and she out of here

Wow 953.1... you don't see that too often on the GFS.

[O Town]

Seems to be right on track.

[SouthFloridawx]

At least that ridiculous cut-off low is gone from the gfs.

[KWT]

Could be a close call if some of the models are right but it doesn't alter the underlying fact that the models nearly all still recurve, just gets a little closer then first thought.

Of course if the upper trough is overdone, the next trough won't make it in time....

[OuterBanker]

Well they did it. Yes, Al Roker came out and said that Katia was expected to go out to sea but now could be a concern for the SEUS. Interesting. Previously all media was writing Katia off.

[KWT]

Depends whether the center is actually co-ordinated with the convective burst or not...

Still i agree with the idea that it does look a little better today...

[cycloneye]

Well,it has been well below the expectations of getting high ACE numbers so far (3.7350) I had it getting around 30 units,but it looks like it will be less.

[KWT]

To be fair Cycloneye, it still could have a solid 8-10 days as a TC if the models are correct, so if it does go on a strengthening trend further west 30 units still is do able.

[cinlfla]

Is it just me or is it moving more W then WNW?

[alch97]

I know this might sound like a ridiculous question, but could Katia potentially be a problem for SFL?

[Weatherboy1]

Many models showing ridging building back in late in the period. This appears to be a shift from the big "trough off the East Coast" trend we've had for the past several weeks. If that verifies, it's very possible Katia makes some kind of East Coast U.S. landfall. We'll see.

[RL3AO]

I know this might sound like a ridiculous question, but could Katia potentially be a problem for SFL?

Very very very unlikely.

[meriland23]

on the gfs models it just stalled over many many hours, around 2 days actually. I am convinced there is a very big dissagreement whether being pushed to the west or to the north is most strong.

[KWT]

Is it just me or is it moving more W then WNW?

Still heading only a little north of west from the looks of thins.

Inner core looks much better looking at the microwave, probably 6-12hrs away from being hurricane Katia again IMO...should start to pick up more latitude soon in that case...