ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

703
URNT15 KNHC 021314
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 11 20110902
130500 2659N 09235W 8430 01546 0059 +190 +109 330016 016 019 001 00
130530 2658N 09236W 8430 01544 0060 +190 +109 327016 017 019 001 00
130600 2657N 09237W 8429 01548 0061 +190 +110 328017 017 018 000 00
130630 2656N 09239W 8432 01544 0060 +190 +110 333017 018 018 000 00
130700 2655N 09240W 8431 01546 0060 +192 +110 334018 019 019 000 00
130730 2653N 09241W 8430 01545 0059 +194 +110 330017 018 019 000 00
130800 2652N 09243W 8432 01544 0059 +192 +110 322017 018 019 001 00
130830 2651N 09244W 8429 01550 0064 +188 +110 318018 018 014 002 03
130900 2649N 09243W 8428 01549 0065 +186 +109 309017 019 019 001 03
130930 2649N 09241W 8432 01543 0062 +188 +109 302018 019 021 000 00
131000 2648N 09240W 8428 01546 0061 +190 +109 305019 020 021 000 00
131030 2647N 09238W 8432 01544 0058 +194 +109 303021 021 022 000 00
131100 2646N 09236W 8429 01548 0056 +197 +109 302020 020 023 000 00
131130 2646N 09234W 8428 01548 0057 +200 +109 303019 020 /// /// 03
131200 2646N 09232W 8433 01542 0056 +198 +109 300020 020 020 001 00
131230 2646N 09230W 8433 01540 0061 +192 +109 300019 019 020 000 00
131300 2646N 09228W 8429 01547 0062 +187 +109 306020 021 019 001 00
131330 2646N 09226W 8432 01543 0063 +187 +109 308020 021 021 000 00
131400 2646N 09224W 8430 01544 0060 +189 +108 308019 019 021 000 00
131430 2646N 09222W 8425 01549 0059 +191 +109 311019 019 020 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[KWT]

Looks like the more presistant rainfall is slowly but surely creeping towards the SE of LA looking at the radar loops.

I'll keep the radar watch updated whenever I can!

[cyclogenesis]

For those just now awakening....


September 2, 2011
this Friday morning
642 AM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed 2 NEW writings on to my website, at 621 AM, this Friday morning, 9/2, that details the specifics of your tropical depression & heavy rainfall & flooding threat to Southeast Louisiana. 2 separate writings are on there about the tropical depression/storm & then after that is the dialogue on flooding rain situation. All of it can be found by going to this website weblink provided below at:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[Dave]

941
URNT15 KNHC 021324
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20110902
131500 2647N 09220W 8432 01544 0061 +187 +108 310018 019 020 001 00
131530 2647N 09218W 8434 01539 0062 +185 +108 309016 018 021 000 00
131600 2647N 09216W 8425 01548 0057 +193 +107 304018 019 020 001 00
131630 2647N 09214W 8432 01544 0058 +193 +107 311019 019 021 000 00
131700 2647N 09212W 8428 01546 0057 +193 +107 313019 020 021 001 00
131730 2647N 09210W 8433 01542 0059 +192 +108 309017 017 020 001 00
131800 2647N 09209W 8429 01546 0058 +191 +107 308017 017 021 000 00
131830 2647N 09207W 8429 01544 0058 +194 +107 307015 016 021 000 00
131900 2648N 09205W 8431 01545 0060 +190 +108 307014 014 021 000 00
131930 2648N 09203W 8431 01544 0059 +192 +108 305014 014 021 000 00
132000 2648N 09201W 8429 01546 0057 +195 +108 305015 015 022 000 00
132030 2648N 09159W 8430 01546 0055 +198 +108 301014 015 021 000 00
132100 2648N 09157W 8429 01546 0052 +200 +109 299012 013 021 000 00
132130 2648N 09155W 8430 01543 0053 +199 +109 294013 013 021 000 00
132200 2648N 09153W 8432 01540 0052 +198 +109 293014 015 022 000 00
132230 2649N 09151W 8429 01543 0052 +195 +108 293016 017 021 001 00
132300 2649N 09149W 8432 01537 0053 +196 +108 289016 017 020 002 03
132330 2650N 09147W 8427 01544 0053 +195 +108 288015 015 018 000 03
132400 2651N 09146W 8429 01543 0053 +194 +108 289014 015 018 002 00
132430 2652N 09145W 8431 01541 0054 +191 +108 293015 015 019 000 00
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

So, the center is relocated 55 miles to the NE of the 7am position?

[facemane]

Has anyone ever seen a forecast like this? 6 days of Tropical storm conditions..:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-90.3745


LOL never mind...3 days

Hurricane Elena in 1985. It sat off the coast of Cedar Key Fla for a few days and inundated the area with rain
and wind. After the low pressure trough influencing the east movement passed,the storm then moved WNW
before finally making landfall on the Ms coast.

[bbadon]

I hope I'm not seeing what I think I'm seeing but is the ULL that was shearing starting to weakin?

[Dave]

Water vapor showing the dry air on the west side.

[djmikey]

Is it just me, or did the models to a "split" again?

[underthwx]

Has anyone ever seen a forecast like this? 6 days of Tropical storm conditions..:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... n=-90.3745


LOL never mind...3 days

Hurricane Elena in 1985. It sat off the coast of Cedar Key Fla for a few days and inundated the area with rain
and wind. After the low pressure trough influencing the east movement passed,the storm then moved WNW
before finally making landfall on the Ms coast.

rex block?...
Blocks in meteorology are large scale patterns in the atmospheric pressure field that are nearly stationary, effectively "blocking" or redirecting migratory cyclones. They are also known as blocking highs or blocking anticyclones.[1] These blocks can remain in place for several days or even weeks, causing the areas affected by them to have the same kind of weather for an extended period of time (e.g.- precipitation for some areas, clear skies for others).[2] In the Northern Hemisphere, extended blocking occurs most frequently in the spring over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans.[1]




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

561
URNT15 KNHC 021334
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20110902
132500 2653N 09143W 8432 01541 0054 +193 +109 291015 016 021 000 00
132530 2654N 09142W 8430 01540 0053 +194 +109 283015 015 021 001 00
132600 2656N 09141W 8429 01541 0053 +193 +109 282015 015 020 001 00
132630 2657N 09139W 8430 01539 0055 +190 +109 282015 015 019 000 00
132700 2658N 09138W 8430 01539 0056 +190 +110 284014 015 016 002 00
132730 2659N 09137W 8432 01539 0056 +188 +110 282013 014 017 001 00
132800 2701N 09135W 8429 01541 0056 +185 +110 287011 012 020 000 00
132830 2702N 09134W 8436 01534 0055 +187 +111 289011 011 018 000 00
132900 2703N 09133W 8429 01540 0054 +186 +109 285010 011 017 000 00
132930 2704N 09131W 8432 01537 0055 +185 +108 284010 011 018 001 00
133000 2705N 09130W 8430 01537 0055 +185 +108 284010 010 014 002 00
133030 2707N 09129W 8429 01539 0053 +186 +109 282010 010 016 000 00
133100 2708N 09127W 8435 01531 0051 +190 +110 281009 010 015 000 00
133130 2709N 09126W 8428 01537 0050 +190 +110 284009 011 017 000 00
133200 2710N 09125W 8422 01541 0051 +187 +110 275009 010 017 002 00
133230 2712N 09123W 8433 01533 0051 +189 +110 271008 009 011 001 00
133300 2713N 09122W 8430 01532 0045 +195 +109 262008 008 011 000 00
133330 2714N 09121W 8429 01535 0046 +195 +109 255007 008 010 002 00
133400 2715N 09119W 8429 01535 0046 +194 +109 262007 007 016 000 00
133430 2716N 09118W 8429 01535 0047 +192 +109 254006 006 014 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[GeauxT's]

I hope I'm not seeing what I think I'm seeing but is the ULL that was shearing starting to weakin?

Sorry, can you explain what that means?

[PTrackerLA]

12z BAMs show much more of bend westwards once landfall occurs in Louisiana, instead of swinging east towards New Orleans. Could have big rainfall implications for my area .

[Dave]

561
URNT15 KNHC 021344
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20110902
133500 2718N 09117W 8433 01532 0049 +190 +110 265005 005 014 001 00
133530 2719N 09116W 8428 01538 0046 +196 +110 255003 004 012 001 03
133600 2720N 09115W 8434 01531 0046 +197 +111 301002 002 014 001 03
133630 2722N 09114W 8427 01539 0048 +195 +111 251004 005 015 000 00
133700 2724N 09114W 8433 01532 0050 +190 +110 258003 004 016 001 00
133730 2725N 09113W 8432 01537 0055 +185 +109 240005 005 019 000 00
133800 2727N 09112W 8433 01534 0055 +185 +109 268002 004 019 000 00
133830 2728N 09112W 8425 01543 0057 +183 +109 291001 002 022 000 00
133900 2730N 09111W 8432 01535 0057 +182 +109 189001 001 022 001 00
133930 2732N 09111W 8430 01536 0056 +184 +109 194002 002 019 001 00
134000 2733N 09110W 8426 01543 0057 +183 +109 167002 003 020 000 00
134030 2735N 09110W 8433 01536 0059 +180 +109 101004 005 018 002 00
134100 2736N 09109W 8427 01541 0060 +178 +108 099006 006 018 000 00
134130 2738N 09109W 8472 01500 0063 +180 +107 090006 007 018 000 00
134200 2739N 09109W 8609 01361 0064 +188 +108 104006 007 018 002 03
134230 2741N 09108W 9039 00930 0057 +209 +115 097008 012 /// /// 03
134300 2741N 09108W 9039 00930 0047 +225 +134 107014 015 019 001 03
134330 2744N 09106W 9566 00434 0042 +245 +169 115018 019 024 001 03
134400 2745N 09105W 9702 00303 0041 +265 +181 122020 021 027 002 00
134430 2747N 09105W 9740 00267 0040 +261 +197 122020 022 027 001 00
$$
;

[SouthFloridawx]

You can just throw it out. Looks like recon is finding the center relocated 50+ miles to the NE.

[ronjon]

TD13 (soon to be Lee) is getting much better organized today - in fact, it looks like shear has dropped dramatically since yesterday and the center is now tucked under deep convection. I wouldn't be surprised to see it eventually gain hurricane status. The 00z Euro really ramped up TD13 so maybe that will come to pass.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis-s.html

[Cryomaniac]

I hope I'm not seeing what I think I'm seeing but is the ULL that was shearing starting to weakin?

Sorry, can you explain what that means?

Very basically, it means that this system might be able to strengthen a bit more.

[lostsole]

If you call nice 20 mile per hour winds and heavy rain. Your labor day is going to b a wet 1 if you live here in northwest florida

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