ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[dwsqos2]

The Euro actually showed a decent amount of intensification today. As of 1315Z, I can see a banding type eye on visible satellite.

[Weatherboy1]

I know this might sound like a ridiculous question, but could Katia potentially be a problem for SFL?

A day or two ago I would have said no way. Now? A little bit more concerned -- not a lot, but a little. Many models are building the W. Atlantic ridge back in after the turn to the NW for the next couple days. That opens up the possibility of an Andrew-type track (a turn back to due W ... not saying Andrew-type STRENGTH). Or it could be more of a Floyd type track where it turns W but then turns back NW and N before reaching us.

Bottom line: Still too early to say, but keep an eye on the trend in the models over the next couple days to see if this ridge rebuild trend continues!

[KWT]

The Euro actually showed a decent amount of intensification today. As of 1315Z, I can see a banding type eye on visible satellite.

65kts may actually be a little low looking at the current imagery, maybe something closer to 70kts right now IMO...

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z BAMS with a dip to the Southwest at the end of the run...

[KWT]

Well the good news I can see is the current track is in line with the models that recurve Katia, which helps to increase confidence that that is exactly what will happen.

Quite a few models do show that bend back but as long as they have the upper set-up close to what happens this should sharply recurve.

[RL3AO]

Well its hard not to drift your eyes to the UKMET, isn't it?

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey, what ever happened to the good old LBAR? lol

[AdamFirst]

Well its hard not to drift your eyes to the UKMET, isn't it?

Ike-like track. It is the southern outlier however.

[KWT]

Well its hard not to drift your eyes to the UKMET, isn't it?

Yeah sticks out doesn't it...as i said its got at times quite a bad left bias, in much the same way as most hurricane models end up too far east.

[xironman]

Look at the differences in the set ups in the 12z vs 0z Euro at 192 and 168 respectively. I realize this is a 12hr difference but right now the models a clueless as to the setup. May be they will settle down tomorrow.

12z


0z

[ronjon]

Well its hard not to drift your eyes to the UKMET, isn't it?

Yeah sticks out doesn't it...as i said its got at times quite a bad left bias, in much the same way as most hurricane models end up too far east.

Yeah KWT I agree but what scares me is eventually on one of these storms the UKMET will be correct. Just hope it isn't this one.

[shaggy]

Any word on when G-IV flights might begin?

[T'Bonz]

He was rather definite. It surprised me. Usually, unless the track appears to be set in stone, they aren't that definite. That's why it caught my attention.

I won't begin to worry until/unless they bring out Max Mayfield on the Channel 10 weather. When he appears, it means we have a shot at getting a storm. Otherwise, we just get the local met.

Our local met (Miami) said this will NOT hit Florida.

He had better be right!

Did he say probably not? Or a definitive NO. Cause if he made such a bold statement and that does not follow through. There are going to be a lot of angry people and a lot of people staying behind because they took his word to heart. Making absolute certain claims this far out is nothing short of rediculous. Do most models project florida? No, but the chances of her recurving later and heading into the EC is becoming more and more or a reality as time passes. I think his statement was kind of irresponsible.

[otowntiger]

Well the good news I can see is the current track is in line with the models that recurve Katia, which helps to increase confidence that that is exactly what will happen.

Quite a few models do show that bend back but as long as they have the upper set-up close to what happens this should sharply recurve.

Yep. Like I said earlier: 'See ya, Katia!' That should be our slogan around here. The fact that all the models (well maybe except for UKMet) are extremely consistant in showing a sharp re-curve well out to sea, I have very little concern right now. In fact with Katia not being a threat on one side and td 13 sucking the wet away from us on the other I look for very dry conditions here in Florida for a while.

[jhpigott]

dry slot or eye like feature beginning to develop in last couple frames??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[xironman]

That is not a huge miss for a storm at 180 hrs. Given the evolution of the pattern for the past few runs I don't think anything is out of the question.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

All the models were extremely consistent in the recurve being much earlier as well.

The only consistency I've seen from the models is Katia heading further west. I have a hard time writing this one off as a fish so soon.

[alienstorm]

Eye like feature now developing Hurricane at 11am? Also seems to be headed more westerly could UKMET be on to something?

[alienstorm]

Eye like feature now developing Hurricane at 11am? Also seems to be headed more westerly could UKMET be on to something?

[SouthFloridawx]

The bigger picture ...