ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Bluefrog]

Heavy rain has begun here. Its going to be a long weekend.
Lots of movies, popcorn, pizza and cool-aid in between surf sessions.

yep .. you must be real close to me .....

[Javlin]

If you look at the visible, it looks like the entire system is moving due west:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix/gmex_vis_loop.php

Also, all of the convection was displaced to the east, but now appears to be wrapping around all sides of the LLC which was previously somewhat naked. Confusing forecast to say the least.

Not moving;Expanding.

[bevgo]

OMG .... if it rains like this for days ...we are in trouble. We've had enough already ... would gladly send to Texas ..... {{{{{{blowing it your way}}}}}}}}

I will join you with that ((((((((Blow)))))))))

[Dave]

[underthwx]

for the sake of discussion....can anyone absolutely rule out precipitation for Texas from TD13?....based on all the current data?......are there any realistic scenarios on the table that offer any hope?....





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Wayne]

Great golfing weather here in Lafayette, nice breeze and a break from the hot weather...... sorry TX

[Dave]

Wide area view for reference.

[Javlin]

for the sake of discussion....can anyone absolutely rule out precipitation for Texas from TD13?....based on all the current data?......are there any realistic scenarios on the table that offer any hope?....





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It does not look like it but things can always change but I would doubt it.

[Dave]

079
URNT15 KNHC 021434
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20110902
142500 2659N 09033W 9838 00189 0052 +249 +226 178022 022 027 001 00
142530 2701N 09032W 9885 00144 0049 +251 +233 180022 023 028 002 00
142600 2703N 09032W 9909 00123 0048 +252 +229 173022 022 030 000 00
142630 2704N 09032W 9871 00155 0048 +250 +223 163025 026 030 004 03
142700 2706N 09031W 9875 00153 0049 +248 +226 168026 027 031 001 03
142730 2706N 09029W 9877 00152 0049 +247 +228 168026 026 031 000 00
142800 2707N 09028W 9878 00151 0050 +250 +230 167025 025 030 001 00
142830 2707N 09026W 9876 00153 0050 +249 +230 169025 026 030 002 03
142900 2708N 09025W 9874 00155 0051 +250 +228 167027 028 033 001 03
142930 2710N 09024W 9874 00154 0050 +250 +228 168029 029 /// /// 03
143000 2712N 09025W 9875 00154 0049 +250 +226 169031 033 037 001 03
143030 2714N 09025W 9876 00151 0048 +250 +227 166032 033 039 000 03
143100 2715N 09025W 9734 00277 0047 +246 +203 160028 031 /// /// 03
143130 2715N 09027W 9392 00584 0038 +234 +156 158017 021 /// /// 03
143200 2714N 09029W 9090 00878 0047 +221 +135 170011 012 033 000 03
143230 2714N 09031W 8799 01172 0055 +211 +130 180008 008 032 000 00
143300 2714N 09033W 8582 01389 0058 +200 +127 196009 009 029 001 00
143330 2713N 09034W 8463 01513 0062 +193 +124 199009 010 028 000 03
143400 2712N 09035W 8437 01541 0064 +188 +123 207011 012 /// /// 03
143430 2711N 09035W 8425 01554 0066 +183 +121 205012 013 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Nikki]

for the sake of discussion....can anyone absolutely rule out precipitation for Texas from TD13?....based on all the current data?......are there any realistic scenarios on the table that offer any hope?.....

I am on the Se Texas Gulf Coast and I have given up hope! I was hoping we would get some rain to help with the wildfires! I hope everyone who is going to be affected stays safe!!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dave]

**Note: This was the first pass VDM**

000
URNT12 KNHC 021433
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 02/12:33:40Z
B. 27 deg 37 min N
090 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1469 m
D. 27 kt
E. 021 deg 8 nm
F. 120 deg 12 kt
G. 019 deg 8 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 18 C / 1521 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 37 KT N QUAD 12:08:10Z

[GCANE]

I like that infeed channel coming into the core from the SW running along about 26N

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html


Dry air from TX is sucking up GOM moisture like a sponge.

Looks like it is pulling in 4000 to 5000 CAPE air into the core.

[EasyTiger]

Not likely that TX receives much if anything from this, but it also cannot completely be ruled out. It should actually bump against the southern edge of the U.S. ridge resulting in a NW movement for the next 24 hours or so. It really just depends on how far NW it gets before being shunted by the front. You also have to be a little skeptical of a strong front in early September. Definitely plausible, but how many times have we seen these things stall out prior to reaching the Gulf Coast.

[Dave]

**NOTE: This was the first pass VDM**

DECODED VDM OB 07

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 14:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 12:33:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°37'N 90°55'W (27.6167N 90.9167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (275 km) to the SSW (198°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,469m (4,820ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 120° at 12kts (From the ESE at ~ 13.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the north quadrant at 12:08:10Z

[underthwx]

Gcane...what does that image depict?...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If this parks for days and inundates New Orleans, can the pumps handle all that rain? Have they all been fixed yet? Will the lake overtop? Could his be anohter Katrina-like flooding event for the city?

[Dave]

[poof121]

These temps seem kinda low for a tropical system...

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)

Maybe they're just higher than usual?

[GCANE]

Gcane...what does that image depict?...

It shows CAPE - Convective Available Potential Energy.

It is measure of how much energy can go into a thunderstorm.

A value of 4000 is very strong.

It indicates that it is very likely convection will continue to strengthen.

[HenkL]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 02/12:33:40

This VDM is from 2 hours ago, the first pass.