ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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Swimdude
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1981 Postby Swimdude » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:36 am

alch97 wrote:
Swimdude wrote:This change in forecast track is bothersome. I'm not sure what else to say, except that I'm worried that Katia could still go absolutely anywhere--Gulf, East coast, Canada, etc. And that is extremely worrisome.

I'm on JB's side now. No fish.

[Disclaimer: This is an opinion. I am no meteorologist. Refer to the NHC for official information.]



What? Now it's looking like it's moving more to the west?


It's not the current movement, but the future trend. We saw this with Irene less than 10 days ago... Only the opposite. Irene's forecast continued to move east, east, east with every advisory. What are we seeing here? West, west, west with every advisory. Sure, you can argue that the recurve will occur on day 6 or 7... But how accurate has forecasts for that far out been with Irene and now with Katia? Terribly inaccurate. I don't know where this is headed, but I fear it'll be the east coast... And that's the last thing in the world they need.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1982 Postby oceancounty » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:37 am

Swimdude wrote:This change in forecast track is bothersome. I'm not sure what else to say, except that I'm worried that Katia could still go absolutely anywhere--Gulf, East coast, Canada, etc. And that is extremely worrisome.

I'm on JB's side now. No fish.

[Disclaimer: This is an opinion. I am no meteorologist. Refer to the NHC for official information.]


I agree. Everyone needs to keep an eye on Katia!
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1983 Postby bobbisboy » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:39 am

KWT mostly lurk but read you and enjoy your posts... does kind of run surprise you
in that you thought a threat if any would be from FL to Carolinas? I'm in a place were
over 50% still don't have power from IRENE. It's been a mess. THanks in advanice for
your thoughts.... this run gets too close for comfort
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#1984 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:39 am

Heading NNE at 180hrs, shift the track a couple of hundred miles west and you've got a big problem.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1985 Postby storm4u » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:39 am

If the gfs played out it would be fine here we just dont want it to trend west anymore then it already has flooding was epic with Irene i dont even want to begin to think about what could happen with this

It's not the current movement, but the future trend. We saw this with Irene less than 10 days ago... Only the opposite. Irene's forecast continued to move east, east, east with every advisory. What are we seeing here? West, west, west with every advisory. Sure, you can argue that the recurve will occur on day 6 or 7... But how accurate has forecasts for that far out been with Irene and now with Katia? Terribly inaccurate. I don't know where this is headed, but I fear it'll be the east coast... And that's the last thing in the world they need.[/quote]
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#1986 Postby InstantWeatherMaps » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:42 am

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#1987 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:45 am

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I'd still have to favour a recurve, the upper troughs aren't quite as noticeable on the last couple of model runs but they still come along fairly frequently and I'd expect one of them to do the job, thats of course not to say it can't be a close call if it does happen like that.
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#1988 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:47 am

The big player in all of this is how much interaction between Katia and the tropical entity moving out of the GOM next week will play out?

That is the big $$$$$$$ question coming during next week!
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1989 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:50 am

bobbisboy wrote:KWT mostly lurk but read you and enjoy your posts... does kind of run surprise you
in that you thought a threat if any would be from FL to Carolinas? I'm in a place were
over 50% still don't have power from IRENE. It's been a mess. THanks in advanice for
your thoughts.... this run gets too close for comfort


A little but note where the turn starts, around 35N...thats IMO about the latitude things will shift gear and the system will be more likely to feel the effect.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1990 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:54 am

I wouldnt rule out anything even though if I made a forecast it would be like Esther - the loop or like Bill 2009 or Danielle 1998 or Edouard 1996

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

secondary tracks That could happen

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Possibilities but less likely

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Its all going to depend on how far west the ridge builds and how far east the trough is and its tilt

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Last edited by Hurricaneman on Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1991 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:54 am

It looks like dry air has entered again in the circulation as convection is weakening and dry spots are evident in the CDO.
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#1992 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:56 am

looks like she is getting sheared and is really tilted...LLC looks to be southwest of the ball of hell....
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#1993 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:57 am

not a pretty run if the repeated shift in track to the west continues to occur. it could be a bit of an Irene redeux as far as the same areas being inundated again.
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#1994 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:00 pm

deltadog03 wrote:looks like she is getting sheared and is really tilted...LLC looks to be southwest of the ball of hell....


Yeah. She's fighting it pretty well though. If she keeps that closed eyewall until the shear goes away, watch out.
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#1995 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:00 pm

I believe Katia's stunted growth (dry air and shear taking a toll once again) will keep Katia's track on the southern periphery of the model guidance.

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1996 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:00 pm

Its going further and further west. I feel like Deja vu from Irene. Each model took it further and further west.
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Re:

#1997 Postby jhpigott » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:01 pm

deltadog03 wrote:looks like she is getting sheared and is really tilted...LLC looks to be southwest of the ball of hell....


as long as Katia stays sheared and tilted will that induce more of a westward track at least in the short term?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1998 Postby jhpigott » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:06 pm

Anyone posted yet the 12z UKMET, NOGAPS and CMC yet?
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1999 Postby sandyb » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:08 pm

Our local mets at one of our TV stations told earlier in the week that if Japan got hit by the typhone then we need to watch very closely for Katia to hit the USEC OMGosh if I am reading right it looks like Japan is getting hit. We do not need another hurricane here on the NC coast this really has us worried here. Do yall think NC is in the danger zone for Katia I know its to soon to tell but just your thoughts those who know what they are talking about.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2000 Postby crimi481 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:09 pm

Models may be picking up on a counter clockwise "Dance" between Katia and Lee?
Interesting read about the "common point" - spot on dance floor the music and waltz begins.

The Fujiwhara Effect
Fujiwhara’s studies indicate storms will rotate around a common center of mass. A similar effect is seen in the rotation of the Earth and moon. This barycenter is the center pivot point around which two rotating bodies in space will spin. The specific location of this center of gravity is determined by the relative intensity of the tropical storms. This interaction will sometimes lead to tropical storms 'dancing' with each other around the dance floor of the ocean.
Full Article,
http://weather.about.com/od/hurricanefo ... iwhara.htm
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