ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Maybe in the short-term yes....but, will have to wait and see if that effects the outcome or not...

[RL3AO]

Our local mets at one of our TV stations told earlier in the week that if Japan got hit by the typhone then we need to watch very closely for Katia to hit the USEC OMGosh if I am reading right it looks like Japan is getting hit. We do not need another hurricane here on the NC coast this really has us worried here. Do yall think NC is in the danger zone for Katia I know its to soon to tell but just your thoughts those who know what they are talking about.

Must be a Joe Bastardi fan.

Any pro mets got a thought on the Japan/Atlantic teleconnection idea that JB talks about?

[Jevo]

Anyone posted yet the 12z UKMET, NOGAPS and CMC yet?

still waiting on the 12z UKMET and NOGAPS... they run around 2pm EDT

[chris_fit]

Its going further and further west. I feel like Deja vu from Irene. Each model took it further and further west.

I believe with Irene it was the opposite... Track was further and further east with each run for the majority of the storm.

[dmbthestone]

Our local mets at one of our TV stations told earlier in the week that if Japan got hit by the typhone then we need to watch very closely for Katia to hit the USEC OMGosh if I am reading right it looks like Japan is getting hit. We do not need another hurricane here on the NC coast this really has us worried here. Do yall think NC is in the danger zone for Katia I know its to soon to tell but just your thoughts those who know what they are talking about.

Had a question about this. I haven't really been following the typhoon in Japan. The reasoning for saying "if Japan gets hit, we need to watch for Katia to hit USEC". Is this due to the fact the typhoon in Japan would effect weather conditions for Katia, or does it mean, if it's possible for the Typhoon to hit Japan, its also possible for Katia to make landfall in the US. Thanks

[clfenwi]

Anyone posted yet the 12z UKMET, NOGAPS and CMC yet?

Here's the 12Z NOGAPS at 168h



Complete loop

[maxintensity]

12z NOGAPS with extremely impressive ridging that would force this into the US East Coast moving West.

[Jevo]

Hehe Chris Landsea and Stacy Stewart wrote the last discussion... Thats like the Babe Ruth and Lou Gherig of the NHC

[clfenwi]

12Z CMC at 144h



Complete loop

[supercane]

Summary of last 4 operational GFS shows quite a lot of divergence between the 06Z and most recent 12Z run:

[Blown Away]

Saved Image.

This chart shows the 12z CMC track much more N compared to the loop that was posted above, the loop had it just E of the Bahamas???

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF stats ... almost straight from the start, moves Katia faster than the 06Z run. 120h position is a couple degress west and one degree south of the comparable position in the 06Z. ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATIA 12L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 2

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -52.00 LAT: 17.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -52.90 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -54.10 LAT: 18.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -55.00 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -55.90 LAT: 19.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 964.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -56.50 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -57.00 LAT: 20.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 79.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -57.80 LAT: 20.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -58.40 LAT: 21.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 91.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -59.00 LAT: 21.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 88.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -59.70 LAT: 22.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 950.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 92.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -60.60 LAT: 22.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -61.30 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 96.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -62.10 LAT: 23.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 943.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -62.80 LAT: 23.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -63.40 LAT: 24.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -64.10 LAT: 24.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -64.80 LAT: 24.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -65.60 LAT: 25.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 106.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -66.60 LAT: 25.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -67.60 LAT: 26.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 105.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -68.60 LAT: 26.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 101.00
FORECAST RAN UNCOUPLED



(edited to add wind swath)

[South Texas Storms]

BA, the CMC on that graphic was from the 0z run. They haven't put today's 12z run on that map yet.

[Blown Away]

BA, the CMC on that graphic was from the 0z run. They haven't put today's 12z run on that map yet.

It says 12z on the map?

[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL swath

[SouthFloridawx]

looks like she is getting sheared and is really tilted...LLC looks to be southwest of the ball of hell....

as long as Katia stays sheared and tilted will that induce more of a westward track at least in the short term?

LOL ball of hell. That was funny.

Looks like there is enough ridging to keep this moving WNW...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Its going further and further west. I feel like Deja vu from Irene. Each model took it further and further west.

I believe with Irene it was the opposite... Track was further and further east with each run for the majority of the storm.

I think at this stage models showed Irene a Recurve. But to there credit, Irene remain an Invest until the antilles

[hurricaneCW]

Track wise I'm thinking a middle solution of 09's Bill and last season's Earl. Yeah the environment does look quite hostile but this may end being a bad thing in the end.

[crimi481]

Ridge staying out front of Katia, and the tilt to ridge may keep her west -even possibly S. of West?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[maxintensity]

Its going further and further west. I feel like Deja vu from Irene. Each model took it further and further west.

I believe with Irene it was the opposite... Track was further and further east with each run for the majority of the storm.

I think at this stage models showed Irene a Recurve. But to there credit, Irene remain an Invest until the antilles

To be fair, no model showed Irene a recurve on any model run throughout the entirety of its life, even before becoming an invest.