C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

[Ntxw]

Why have our low temperatures been so warm this year compared to 1980? Is it just urban heat island effect as DFW grows, or are there other factors?

Yep, most likely heat island, many areas around (just outside) the core urban region were in the upper 70s mostly. The same reason we didn't get into single digits in the past few big arctic outbreaks while Waco and other areas outside of DFW did.

[gboudx]

It's also the drought. I don't know how it was in 1980, but a parched ground heats up faster since there's no moisture to evaporate.

[Ntxw]

It's also the drought. I don't know how it was in 1980, but a parched ground heats up faster since there's no moisture to evaporate.

I think 1980 was during a drought also, more so to our north than our south like this year. FW made a great comparison chart. DFW has had more rain this year than 1980 during this stretch.



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[gboudx]

It's also the drought. I don't know how it was in 1980, but a parched ground heats up faster since there's no moisture to evaporate.

I think 1980 was during a drought also, more so to our north than our south like this year. FW made a great comparison chart. DFW has had more rain this year than 1980 during this stretch.

Just think how much more horrible the summer would've been if we had not received all that rain in the Spring. For a while, our area was the only one in Texas not in drought.

[South Texas Storms]

I have to admit, I'm really not looking forward to a La Nina winter this year. I am looking forward to the cooler temperatures, but I'm really starting to think/fear that most of the cold fronts we get this year will come through dry. I see a winter a lot like last year, which is not good at all.

When do yall think the drought will end? I'm thinking it will end from a tropical system hitting us in the next month or next year's hurricane season. If we don't get hit by a tropical system, I'm thinking/hoping that the 2012-2013 winter season will be an El Nino year and our drought will end then.

[Ntxw]

When do yall think the drought will end? I'm thinking it will end from a tropical system hitting us in the next month or next year's hurricane season. If we don't get hit by a tropical system, I'm thinking/hoping that the 2012-2013 winter season will be an El Nino year and our drought will end then.

I'm no expert on long range forecast but I think we are in for long term drought in Texas with brief periods of relief (Hermine dumped lots of rain last Sept along the I-35 corridor yet exceptional drought still creeped in). In a sense, since 2007 that's how it has been looking like since the -PDO ramped up. This favors more la ninas instead of El Nino, there has been 2 moderate to strong la ninas since and only 1 moderate El nino (2009-2010) with a third possibly in the making this upcoming winter. Generally the great droughts of Texas have been most active during cold PDO's so I don't see much in the way of a change since we are now in the heart of one.

[Portastorm]

It's also the drought. I don't know how it was in 1980, but a parched ground heats up faster since there's no moisture to evaporate.

I think 1980 was during a drought also, more so to our north than our south like this year. FW made a great comparison chart. DFW has had more rain this year than 1980 during this stretch.

Just think how much more horrible the summer would've been if we had not received all that rain in the Spring. For a while, our area was the only one in Texas not in drought.

Yeah ... well, guess what .... we didn't get ANY rain this spring! "Horrible" is a good word to describe the drought conditions in South Central Texas.

[Tireman4]

Let us quote PWC:

WORST. SUMMER. EVER.
WORST. DROUGHT. EVER.

Thank you. They are here all winter folks.

[Portastorm]

When do yall think the drought will end? I'm thinking it will end from a tropical system hitting us in the next month or next year's hurricane season. If we don't get hit by a tropical system, I'm thinking/hoping that the 2012-2013 winter season will be an El Nino year and our drought will end then.

I'm no expert on long range forecast but I think we are in for long term drought in Texas with brief periods of relief (Hermine dumped lots of rain last Sept along the I-35 corridor yet exceptional drought still creeped in). In a sense, since 2007 that's how it has been looking like since the -PDO ramped up. This favors more la ninas instead of El Nino, there has been 2 moderate to strong la ninas since and only 1 moderate El nino (2009-2010) with a third possibly in the making this upcoming winter. Generally the great droughts of Texas have been most active during cold PDO's so I don't see much in the way of a change since we are now in the heart of one.

I'm in agreement. I think we'll see at least a weak Nina this winter and maybe even a moderate one. That will mean more below normal precip totals. I don't see this drought ending until at least Fall 2012 if not later. As Ntxw said, there may be a few brief periods of good rains ... but a prolonged above normal precip period is unlikely. The strength of this coming winter's Nina will do a lot to dictate what kind of summer we see next year. Keep that in mind.

[horselattitudesfarm]

It's also the drought. I don't know how it was in 1980, but a parched ground heats up faster since there's no moisture to evaporate.

I think 1980 was during a drought also, more so to our north than our south like this year. FW made a great comparison chart. DFW has had more rain this year than 1980 during this stretch.



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One mistake in the chart. Should be 69 days above 100, not 65 for 1980

[Ntxw]

One mistake in the chart. Should be 69 days above 100, not 65 for 1980

The chart was a comparison up to August 31st, which was when FW made it. There were more 100s in Sept then but just not included in the time period shown. DFW is at 66 with yesterday.

[Shoshana]

Why have our low temperatures been so warm this year compared to 1980? Is it just urban heat island effect as DFW grows, or are there other factors?

Yep, most likely heat island, many areas around (just outside) the core urban region were in the upper 70s mostly. The same reason we didn't get into single digits in the past few big arctic outbreaks while Waco and other areas outside of DFW did.

I've said it before, but I was living in Dallas in 1980 (yeah I'm old lol) and I swear there were 88f lows. I can't prove it or anything, but I remember how they kept going on and on about it. And I remember people buying blocks of ice to put in their pools cause the pools were too hot.

[Shoshana]

Average August high in Austin = 105f

That's just wrong.

OK, I'm not making this up ... my middle-schooler told me that the other day on recess break, some of the kids were cheering because there were clouds in the sky and they obscured the sun for a bit. He said: "Dad, it was like the time it snowed last year and everyone went crazy ... they did the same thing except it was for clouds!"

When we had that sudden rain shower a couple of weeks ago I went outside and there were neighbors taking pictures.

Reminds me of a SF story I read a long time ago (don't remember what the name was) about a place where it rained once every 100 years. All the kids went out to play in it except one little girl who got left behind (locked in a closet in horseplay? Can't remember)

[South Texas Storms]

When do yall think the drought will end? I'm thinking it will end from a tropical system hitting us in the next month or next year's hurricane season. If we don't get hit by a tropical system, I'm thinking/hoping that the 2012-2013 winter season will be an El Nino year and our drought will end then.

I'm no expert on long range forecast but I think we are in for long term drought in Texas with brief periods of relief (Hermine dumped lots of rain last Sept along the I-35 corridor yet exceptional drought still creeped in). In a sense, since 2007 that's how it has been looking like since the -PDO ramped up. This favors more la ninas instead of El Nino, there has been 2 moderate to strong la ninas since and only 1 moderate El nino (2009-2010) with a third possibly in the making this upcoming winter. Generally the great droughts of Texas have been most active during cold PDO's so I don't see much in the way of a change since we are now in the heart of one.

Interesting, I didn't know the PDO influenced our rainfall that much. Do you have any idea when the PDO will be positive?

[South Texas Storms]

When do yall think the drought will end? I'm thinking it will end from a tropical system hitting us in the next month or next year's hurricane season. If we don't get hit by a tropical system, I'm thinking/hoping that the 2012-2013 winter season will be an El Nino year and our drought will end then.

I'm no expert on long range forecast but I think we are in for long term drought in Texas with brief periods of relief (Hermine dumped lots of rain last Sept along the I-35 corridor yet exceptional drought still creeped in). In a sense, since 2007 that's how it has been looking like since the -PDO ramped up. This favors more la ninas instead of El Nino, there has been 2 moderate to strong la ninas since and only 1 moderate El nino (2009-2010) with a third possibly in the making this upcoming winter. Generally the great droughts of Texas have been most active during cold PDO's so I don't see much in the way of a change since we are now in the heart of one.

I'm in agreement. I think we'll see at least a weak Nina this winter and maybe even a moderate one. That will mean more below normal precip totals. I don't see this drought ending until at least Fall 2012 if not later. As Ntxw said, there may be a few brief periods of good rains ... but a prolonged above normal precip period is unlikely. The strength of this coming winter's Nina will do a lot to dictate what kind of summer we see next year. Keep that in mind.

What do you mean by that Porta? If this winter's Nina is stronger/weaker what will that mean for next summer?

[Portastorm]

When we had that sudden rain shower a couple of weeks ago I went outside and there were neighbors taking pictures.

Reminds me of a SF story I read a long time ago (don't remember what the name was) about a place where it rained once every 100 years. All the kids went out to play in it except one little girl who got left behind (locked in a closet in horseplay? Can't remember)

Ah yes ... one of my favorite, all-time sci-fi short stories ... "All Summer in a Day" by Ray Bradbury.

[Ntxw]

Interesting, I didn't know the PDO influenced our rainfall that much. Do you have any idea when the PDO will be positive?

Here is a good article on the PDO from NASA.

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/

As the name suggests, it could be decades (20-30 years). The last cold PDO was in the 50s 60s and 70s. Not to say that we will be in continuous drought during the period, it is just we will have more drier periods than what we have been used to like in the 90s and early 2000s.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting, I didn't know the PDO influenced our rainfall that much. Do you have any idea when the PDO will be positive?

Here is a good article on the PDO from NASA.

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/

As the name suggests, it could be decades (20-30 years). The last cold PDO was in the 50s 60s and 70s.

Ahh now I understand it better. Thanks for posting that article. It's a good read. So I guess not coincidentally, we had many dry years in the 50s, 60s and 70s with the last cold PDO. I sure do hope the warm PDO is less than 20 years away!

[Shoshana]

When we had that sudden rain shower a couple of weeks ago I went outside and there were neighbors taking pictures.

Reminds me of a SF story I read a long time ago (don't remember what the name was) about a place where it rained once every 100 years. All the kids went out to play in it except one little girl who got left behind (locked in a closet in horseplay? Can't remember)

Ah yes ... one of my favorite, all-time sci-fi short stories ... "All Summer in a Day" by Ray Bradbury.

Ahh TY!

lol just looked it up and I got it backwards... it's Venus where it rains all the time and the kids go out to see the sunshine for 2 hours. It's visible every 7 years.

The drought is getting to me

[Shoshana]

(Mabry) Fri Day 78 100+ (New All Time Record)

Day 23 105+

27 in a row 100+ current record 2011!

(Bergstrom) Fri Day 65 100+ (New All Time Record)

I hope we never EVER get close to breaking these records!