ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[weunice]

Be grateful for it. If you have a power outage, a cold front is exactly what you would want, as opposed to 90+ and humidity. We had a cold front come through Houston directly after Ike hit.

That was the ONE good thing about Ike. I remember when Gustav came through here it was still hot the next several days. We were without power for five days and every single night was miserable.

[Nederlander]

Be grateful for it. If you have a power outage, a cold front is exactly what you would want, as opposed to 90+ and humidity. We had a cold front come through Houston directly after Ike hit.

That was the ONE good thing about Ike. I remember when Gustav came through here it was still hot the next several days. We were without power for five days and every single night was miserable.

It was unbearably hot after Rita in 2005, but quite cooler after Ike in 2008. Both were in mid-sept. I would rather the rain from Lee but ill take highs in the 70s all day long..

[maxintensity]

Impressive outflow and good banding to the north south and east. Once shear lets up the west side of the storm should become more healthy. NHC scientist stewart said tomorrow the shear will be gone so we will see.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Be grateful for it. If you have a power outage, a cold front is exactly what you would want, as opposed to 90+ and humidity. We had a cold front come through Houston directly after Ike hit.

That was the ONE good thing about Ike. I remember when Gustav came through here it was still hot the next several days. We were without power for five days and every single night was miserable.

It was unbearably hot after Rita in 2005, but quite cooler after Ike in 2008. Both were in mid-sept. I would rather the rain from Lee but ill take highs in the 70s all day long..

i was in nacogdoches for Rita and the day after was the hottest and most humid day ive ever felt in Texas

[BigB0882]

Did the LLC actually reform SW as people mentioned earlier or was this just more people jumping the gun while wobble watching? Just curious because any south movement could keep this over water another 24 hours or longer.

[GCANE]

Nearly half the Gulf of Mexico's normal oil production has been cut off by Tropical Storm Lee

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... TE=DEFAULT

[ConvergenceZone]

As slow as it takes to organize, I wouldn't worry about a hurricane, just a mid to high tropical storm with lots and lots of rain...

[vbhoutex]

Understanding that sometimes visible satellite looks can be deceiving, it does seem like Lee may be a bit west of forecasted points. If you look at this image and make sure you click on the tropical points window, see what you think:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I would agree with you, not clearly defined, but perhaps working its way to becoming so. Also noticed by turning on the 'Gst' option that the 40mph+ gusts are slowly creeping closer to the LA coastline.

So difficult to tell what is going on as far as movement. My guess is basically wobbling in place, ie stationary. TS Lee is also developing good outflow to his W and/or SW, which tells me he is indeed trying his best to intensify and consolidate further. If some of what I say doesn't jive with what is going on feel free to correct me since I have been away from the comp for hours and haven't had time to catch up. Even with the current model runs in good agreement I am not about to take my eyes off of him till he is no longer a threat to TX. It is indeed going to be a long and probably frustrating weekend for a lot of people.

[3090]

move it along already and get out Lee....you poor excuse for a TC. Let get a real player in here....

If this was an east coast (NY) event, the national alarmists media would be all over it. But we have been through this enough to know, it's a big thunderstorm/rain event, for the most part. Not much of an event to be honest. More of a nuisance for a long holiday weekend than anything.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looking impressive this afternoon and sounds like NHC thinks so too

GIVEN
THE SLOW MOTION...LESSENING SHEAR...AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 30C THE
CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

[vbhoutex]

As slow as it takes to organize, I wouldn't worry about a hurricane, just a mid to high tropical storm with lots and lots of rain...

Uh, last time I checked, the longer a system is over almost boiling water the better chance it has of becoming a hurricane. Of course that is with very good conditions all around which is pretty much expected to be happening as time progresses. I certainly wouldn't discount the possibility of it reaching hurricane status before landfall, especially since TS Lee is not moving much at all. The one thing that may/could slow any intensification down is the possibility of upwelling setting in and cooling the waters if Lee sits in one place too long.
edit: I posted at the same time as the above post. Seems to be some agreement here.

[ROCK]

:uarrow:

Bitter much?!

yeah I am bitter...when i get a $500 light bill and my house is set at 80's during the day....as far as I am concerned LEE is wasting away TCHP....

[Kennethb]

While the following forecast is out of the Slidell NWS and based on current forecast for path and intensity and if came to fruition, 3 days of tropical storm conditions with potential gusts to hurricane force is not to be taken lightly. Not including rain and possible tornados.

IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE
1125 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...WINDY. RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...WINDY. RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH
INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY WITH
RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
LOWS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.LABOR DAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND
70.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

Bitter much?!

yeah I am bitter...when i get a $500 light bill and my house is set at 80's during the day....as far as I am concerned LEE is wasting away TCHP....

I agree Rock. I'm really depressed. What makes this even more heartbreaking than usual is that we are only 100 miles away from drought breaking 10 inch rainfall totals. What a joke.

[Wx_Warrior]

Was just trying to warn you last night Rock when you were super giddy.

It was cooler here in Beaumont with some wind this morning....was 89...Now at 2:35pm, it's 99.

[BigB0882]

Watching the Mayor of Nola mentioning all the tourists they have in town this weekend. He failed to mention it was Southern Decadence.

[E-Rock-Erica]

One thing all you people complain about it not going to Texas seem to forgeting is that with as bad of a drought you have had this would be horrible flash flooding for you. With ground cracking up it is so hard it would have a hard time absorbing 3 inches let alone 10 to 13. Be careful what you wish for. And all good things come to those who wait. Hopefully some outer bands catch you and get you ready for more soon.

[GCANE]

New Orleans Mayor: TS Lee 'portends a lot of water'; The city has declared a state of emergency

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf ... ss_co.html

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

This is a terrible tease for us Texans- Watched all week long knowing something would brew up in the gulf and its misses us by a hair- There is always next week I guess

[South Texas Storms]

One thing all you people complain about it not going to Texas seem to forgeting is that with as bad of a drought you have had this would be horrible flash flooding for you. With ground cracking up it is so hard it would have a hard time absorbing 3 inches let alone 10 to 13. Be careful what you wish for. And all good things come to those who wait. Hopefully some outer bands catch you and get you ready for more soon.

Yeah I know what you mean. Most of us were really hoping for 1-3 inches of rain from it. Apparently though, that was too much to ask for.