ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

Seems like NC turned on their hurricane deflector...jeeze that is a quick turn around.

[AdamFirst]

Here, have some Ensemble


12z GFS Ensemble 144hr

[clfenwi]

Microwave image from ~2.5 hr ago

[KWT]

Well its gained latitude and looks like the inner core that was forming nicely as of 12z has fallen apart somewhat.

[fci]

Pretty quiet here.........

I guess all the attention is on Lee.

[SouthFLTropics]

We get a few more model runs shifting west and it may get hopping in here again. Until then it is

SFT

[gatorcane]

We get a few more model runs shifting west and it may get hopping in here again. Until then it is

SFT

yeah, less of a Florida threat so lost alot of Florida posters

[hurricanefloyd5]

when are they plaanning to fly recon in Hurricane Katia?

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm not sure if I'm correct in how I'm reading the 12z GFS ensemble but if I am looking at it correctly it looks like they have shifted somewhat South and West...Not dramatically mind you but still a shift in the wrong direction for the CONUS. Maybe someone can peek at them and verify what I think I'm seeing.

SFT

[tpelland]

I'm more concerned with Katia's long term track impacting FL then Lee's track

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2011

KATIA REMAINS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS STRUGGLING WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. A 1718Z TRMM SATELLITE PASS INDICATED
THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS TILTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB DECREASED
TO 3.5...THOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT...A MINIMAL
HURRICANE...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT KATIA IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT...AS IT
IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE. KATIA SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF SPEED.
ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH HAS A MUCH MORE EQUATORWARD SOLUTION
DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST LIFTING OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED
UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS EXCEPT THE
UKMET MODEL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER KATIA WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES.

THE HURRICANE FACES A RELATIVELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHWEST
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 15-20 KT LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND
48 HOURS...THE SHEAR AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS ANTICIPATED
TO DECREASE SOME. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMICS AT THAT TIME MAY
NOT BE IDEAL AS LOW HUMIDITIES AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MOST SIMILAR TO A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE NEW IV15 INTENSITY
CONSENSUS FROM THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM.

THE TROPICAL-STORM WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SOME BASED UPON
A 1334Z ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.4N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.9N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.9N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 21.9N 58.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 26.0N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[wxman57]

I'm more concerned with Katia's long term track impacting FL then Lee's track

It appears that the same deep trof/front that will pick up Lee on Monday will reach the east coast early next week. That should be enough to turn Katia sharply north and northeastward before it reaches the eastern U.S. Of course, it may scare the heck out of east coast residents first.

[cycloneye]

Saved image.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

He is correct I was in Key West when Betsy came through 1965 Lol.

[BigA]

Latest NW motion notwithstanding, looks to be going close to due west in the short run. But always hard to tell with sheared systems.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm more concerned with Katia's long term track impacting FL then Lee's track

It appears that the same deep trof/front that will pick up Lee on Monday will reach the east coast early next week. That should be enough to turn Katia sharply north and northeastward before it reaches the eastern U.S. Of course, it may scare the heck out of east coast residents first.

How strong due you think she'll get in the long term and how close could she come to the CONUS.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

I'm still not convinced it will miss the SE...the track has moved so far west in the last 72 hours...again...just my 2 cents.

This is an opinion not a forecast. I'm not a meteorologist.

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest Euro looked weird how Katia comes right at the SE US then has to make an all out sharp U-turn just in time to miss. Doesn't appear the NHC has total faith in that sharp U-turn.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED
UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS EXCEPT THE
UKMET MODEL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER KATIA WILL
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES.

[angelwing]

Of course, it may scare the heck out of east coast residents first.

You got that right

[meriland23]

ello ello people . New gfs coming out, 18z, check out the loop here. It is updating..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html