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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9941 Postby msbee » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:14 am

so far we are out of the cone..Let's hope we stay that way!
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9942 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 2:50 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
234 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA....WILL LIFT NORTH. TROPICAL STORM KATIA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
STRENGTHENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL...A QUIET DAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES DOMINATING THE AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL INDUCE ALSO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND KATIA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. MOST
COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED KATIA WILL PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL REGION WITH THE ONLY CONCERN FOR MARINE INTEREST.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TJMZ...AND TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 31/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 20 20 20 30
STT 78 88 78 87 / 30 30 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9943 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:45 pm

5 PM Track.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9944 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:5 PM Track.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/7766 ... w5nlsm.gif

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Err, that's still the 11AM cone/map.
NHC usually needs a few additional minutes to update the graphics. ;)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9945 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 3:56 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:5 PM Track.

http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/7766 ... w5nlsm.gif

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Err, that's still the 11AM cone/map.
NHC usually needs a few additional minutes to update the graphics. ;)


The 5 PM one is up. Thank you for letting me know. :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9946 Postby Macrocane » Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:56 pm

High surf is affecting the coast of Central America, green alert was declared yesterday in the beaches of El Salvador. The latest news says that the dock was damaged in the port of La Libertad and 15 houses have been damaged in the same location.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9947 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:13 pm

Is now Hurricane Katia. 11 Pm Track.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching Hurricane Katia

#9948 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:11 am

5 AM Track.

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#9949 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:20 am

Hurricane Katia making an approach... far away of the Lesser Antilles
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching Hurricane Katia

#9950 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:21 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST THU SEP 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL RETREAT TODAY AND FRIDAY AND HURRICANE KATIA WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. HURRICANE KATIA WILL PASS NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40
WEST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HURRICANE KATIA PASSES SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE
TO MAKE WINDS NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK IN THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DIFFUSE BANDS OF MOISTURE CIRCULATING WIDELY AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ARE BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AROUND PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT ONE OF THESE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH
SOME EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO AGUADILLA AND THE WATERS AROUND THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE ISLAND LATER IN THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FELL TO 1.6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND WERE RISING EARLY
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS A BAND OF GOOD MOISTURE
DIRECTLY OVER PUERTO RICO. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WEAKNESS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT...THOUGH NOT
ELIMINATE...CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS HAS HAPPENED IN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. HURRICANE KATIA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MORE THAN 500 MILES. THE
GFS INDICATES THAT THIS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE INCREASED
SEAS...SURFACE WINDS FROM UNUSUAL DIRECTIONS AND POSSIBLY AN OUTER
RAIN BAND OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE GFS NOTES THAT AFTER A
BAND OF MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT
LOW...PASSES ON FRIDAY...DRIER AIR AROUND KATIA...AND LATER LEFT
IN THE AREA IN HER WAKE...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO ONLY THE MORE SEASONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TIL 01/16Z. AFT 01/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO IN SHRA AND
TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 01/22Z.
WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE EAST
TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN AT NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS...AWAITING THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE KATIA FROM THE
EAST ON SATURDAY TO BEGIN RISING. CURRENTLY THE EXPECTATION OF
HIGHEST SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT RANGE IS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AND THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 76 / 30 20 40 10
STT 88 77 88 77 / 20 20 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching Hurricane Katia

#9951 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:04 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST THU SEP 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATIA WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS SAT AND BUILD THROUGH THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO BUILD MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRI-SUN. ON FRI...STEERING FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH WHILE
ON SAT STEERING FLOW IS BASICALLY NON-EXISTENT. SO EXPECT
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ON SUN...THINGS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH AREA BECOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE KATIA. STEERING FLOW EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER
SRN PR.

LABOR DAY-TUE...KATIA WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE
ISLANDS SOME 400 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS. WHILE KATIA HAS BEEN
MOVING MORE WWD OVR THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS LIKELY TO DO IT FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US WHICH IS FCST TO CUT OFF ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC. THIS IS LIKELY TO IMPART A MORE POLEWARD MOTION ONCE IT
REACHES 20N AND 60W ALONG WITH A SIG REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...AREA WILL BE UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF KATIA AND VERY LITTLE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY IMPACTS FROM KATIA ARE SWELLS THAT
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUN AND MON.

AFTER KATIA CLEARS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH TUTTS/TROUGH
THAT ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE ATLC TO BE REPLACED BY A
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL BLOCK ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONES ORIGINATING IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM TAKING THE NORTHERN
ROUTE. WHILE WE ARE MORE THAN LIKELY TO DODGE THE BULLET WITH
KATIA THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE FOR FUTURE STORMS IN THE NEXT 7-14
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON TSTMS POSSIBLE AT JBQ/JSJ/JPS/JMZ. THEN
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...SCA AND HSA LIKELY POSSIBLE FOR OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 10 40 0 30
STT 80 88 80 88 / 10 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching Hurricane Katia

#9952 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:41 pm

5 PM track of downgraded to Tropical Storm Katia.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9953 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 01, 2011 9:56 pm

11 PM EDT Track. Slowly,less islands will have the threat from Katia ending as she climbs more and more in latitude.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9954 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:21 am

5 AM Track.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9955 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:27 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
529 AM AST FRI SEP 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST FROM
ITS CURRENT POSITION OF ABOUT 1150 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA INTERVENES NOW THROUGH SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL RE-FORM SOUTH OF THIS POSITION LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A SLIGHT TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF KATIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA WILL PASS ON A NORTHWEST
TRACK SOME 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN AND 400 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR
ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ITS INFLUENCE TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND THIS
AIR WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES FROM SALINAS TO LUQUILLO OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER LAND AT 02/09Z...SPOTTY
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE WATERS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT PUERTO RICO
IS ON THE BACK EDGE OF A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWEST. A
NARROW DRIER SLOT OF AIR EXISTS BETWEEN THIS BAND AND ONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS APPROACHING BAND HAS
MELDED WITH THE MOISTURE BEING CARRIED AROUND KATIA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FROM THE SOUNDER HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES...BUT ARE STILL LOWER THAN WAS
REPORTED LAST NIGHT AT 02/00Z. MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST. ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWED EASTERLY WINDS NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AT 02/0103Z...AND MODELS MATCHED THIS WELL...SO EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME VEERING DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING A SIMILAR
PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...DIFFUSELY FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND EAST CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ISLAND WITH SOME STREAMER ACTIVITY NOTED BOTH OFF OF PROMONTORIES
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS TO THE EAST INCLUDING SAINT CROIX.

MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE WIND OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AND THIS WILL MAKE LAND-SEA INTERACTIONS VERY INFLUENTIAL IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND SHOULD FOCUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND MIDDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY THE NAM SHOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY STRONGEST ON SUNDAY WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE FROM TODAY. A VERY NOTABLE DRY AREA 600 MILES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF KATIA ABOUT 160 MILES WIDE AND 530 MILES LONG IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND PASS OVER PUERTO RICO BEGINNING SOMETIME ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
BRING A DEFINITE LESSENING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.
SHOULD KATIA MOVE FASTER THAN FORECAST THIS DRY AIR MAY REACH THE
AREA BY SUNDAY AND LIMIT CONVECTION...OTHERWISE THE NAM SUGGESTS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER AND AROUND PUERTO RICO UNTIL
LATE IN THE EVENING SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW
MOVEMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AREA...PUERTO RICO
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE INCREASING AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE GFS HAS WIDE VARIATIONS AFTER FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BETWEEN
A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AREA AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SO IT
IS NOT CLEAR WHEN A NEW ROUND OF WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 02/16Z. AFT 02/16Z...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO IN SHRA AND
TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 02/23Z. WINDS
ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AFTER 02/16Z IN PR.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH EAST NORTHEAST
OR NORTH EXPOSURE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME
MAXIMUM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 9 FEET...BUT COULD BE MUCH
HIGHER JUST A SHORT WAYS BEYOND OUR WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 50 10 60 10
STT 87 78 88 78 / 20 10 30 20
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#9956 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:34 am

Here are the results of these continuous episodes of rain in Guadeloupe...

NORTH HIGH-LAND

HEAVY RAIN: THE SAD BALANCE OF FARMERS

Déborah MATHEY France-Antilles Guadeloupe01.09.2011

:rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 136889.php


Economy. "This is a deadweight loss," ferocious Honoré Kichenassamy, Manager of lignum vitae about the impact of the heavy rains on its operation. "In other words, it loses all that was invested, there is more than harvest." "And the shortfall is huge." Foot rotting, one increase of parasites and other harmful, the recent - and many - wet episodes developed evil productions. "Normally, it has between 5 and 10 tonnes per month, any confused (tomatoes, courgettes, aubergines, cucumbers)", explains the market. "And the most serious, is that it cannot again ploughing the land for planting because it is flooded". With such impact, Honoré paints a dark picture of the coming months: shortage of tomatoes and lettuce for consumers who will be the cost. To get out, he recognizes "doing as it can" and says that the fact of having opened a store allows it to alleviate the financial difficulties. "We farmers are still obliged to take risks because we live by our.". Or neither the Bank nor policies are interested in risk... "Also, when farmers go up to the niche, they are listened and things are" regrets operator.

Agriculture, key to the local economy sector

Furthermore, human raised technical points which policies should be made aware. It is the implementation of specific measures for small operators and that guarantees funds them are specially designed. The reactivity of the State and communities is also unsatisfactory. "There is more season and we have no favourable climate on the year," recalled Honoré Kichenassamy. "Why wait that farmers do demand?", questioned the man, before a small demonstration. "Between the phase of preparation of the soil and the crop, there is a cycle of 120 days." First revenues back that when products are delivered to large surfaces, either to 150 days. A farmer who has invested over 5 hectares and is found in such a situation, loses these 5 hectares. "It will start to work hope to reach in a period of 150 days again." "It is at this time that we need that the State and communities respond and intelligently" he says.

Finally, Honoré Kichenassamy wishes to highlight the participation of farmers in the economy. "All that is used as input sort abroad." "It is part of those who have purchasing power" he concluded.

Above: The rains have drowned of sugar cane fields. Some producers argue even that next year, the harvest may be non-existent.


-Floor of a small operator, PRISCILLA CHANTELOUPE, operator AGRICOLE (CIVES, parsley, THYME, TURNIPS on 2 HECTARES: "Rescue small farmers")

As it fell much water, everything has been destroyed. Small shoots and which had already grown was covered by Earth. Parsley, time of seedlings is a month to a month and a half, wait two or three months to harvest. Everything is then again that loads fall and that we must all pay. I have not yet evaluated but are huge losses. It said it will wait a little, but is it worth? Because if you wait the end of the rains, this refers us to two or three months. Thyme, parsley and the cives are very fragile. The coming months are going to be hard. The big productions receive aid but small farmers? We are left behind! Talking about cannes, bananas and melons, but and the other? For the episode of ash, I made efforts to obtain assistance, but I have had nothing. It is a little sad. It also save small farmers.


-REACTION

In a release, Alfred Dona-Erie, Mayor of Anse-Bertrand notes that "on the meeting of August 16 with farmers of the North high-Earth - especially Anse-Bertrand - I was warned of the negative effect of weather on the sugar campaign." It has come to my knowledge of potential losses amount to 100% of production, due essentially to the impossibility of direct to Cup due to waterlogged soil to water.

Today, many farmers deprived of income because their cannes remained on foot [...] Let me attirre your attention to the nature concern the above facts and the consequences disastrous both to the economic and social level for this part of the territory already hard tested. "And hope the upcoming"of a meeting with these farmers to examine to what extent they could continue to face their charges." »


-Testimony DIDIER NEPOS, President of young farmers: "whatever the case, the income of growers are compromised."


My holdings are broken on Sainte-Rose and Lamentin, I am primarily of pineapple and I have two plots planted in cannes. This is a good time that cane is no longer profitable. And since four or five months, because of significant rains, it cannot be hormoner time and time. There is an increase of beasts and fungal diseases. For some of us, access to farms is almost impossible. I already should replant pineapple plants. They are ready for the months of may, June, but I could not do so and they grow on foot. And it is obliged to maintain the current price if it wants to exist. We are business leaders but we are not housed in the same fashion as one that sells sheet metal for example leaves. We produce, but we do not know how we can sell the product at the end of string. Next year, there is no harvest of cannes. It is a reality that must admit. Cooperatives can withstand the shortfall for growers? The herbicide is inefficient and given the cost of labour, it is better that the cannes remain in the State. Whatever the case, the income of growers are compromised. Since 2009, a succession of phenomena continues to result in bad years. Nothing goes in the direction of small farmers. Pineapple will be late to arrive on the market, products will be of poor quality, there will be a heterogeneity of the fruit, and prices will not go down, on the contrary.


-HONORÉ KICHENASSAMY ROTTERDAM

It loses all that was invested, there is more crop
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching TS Katia

#9957 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:34 am

11 AM Track.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching Hurricane Katia

#9958 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:52 am

Hi! In Central America september and october are the months with the coolest highs in the reainy seaosn, but yesterday it wasn't the case and the maximum temps were above normal in most of the region:
-Warmer than normal highs were registered in Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal highs were registered in Guatemala and Belize.
-Costa Rica experienced warmer than normal lows, they were near average in the rest of the countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.6°C (52.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.8°C (74.8°F) Warmest since June 14
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.1°C (75.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.0°C (57.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.2°C (90.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.4°C (68.7°F)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching Hurricane Katia

#9959 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:03 pm

I think we are out of danger of a direct hit by Katia. But the swells will be high this weekend so be careful in the beaches. The 5 PM track has the eye at the same latitude as St Marteen. And is moving NW so we are in the clear.

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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather=Watching Hurricane Katia

#9960 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 02, 2011 4:13 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST FRI SEP 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LOCAL AREA WILL ALTER THE
LOCAL WIND PATTERN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE OVERALL
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. THEN...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS KATIA REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT
PERTURBS THE LOCAL PRESSURE AND WIND PATTERN...RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT IN AREAS THAT DO NOT NORMALLY
RECEIVE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH ABOUT 02/22Z IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS FROM HURRICANE KATIA WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH EAST NORTHEAST
OR NORTH EXPOSURE THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME
MAXIMUM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 8 FEET...BUT COULD BE MUCH
HIGHER JUST A SHORT WAYS BEYOND OUR WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 10 50 20 30
STT 78 88 78 87 / 10 30 40 40
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