ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

floridasun78 · #2081 Postby **floridasun78** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:53 pm

do it look like katia have eye and move bit to sw unless that dry air?

WeatherGuesser · #2082 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:00 pm

Time_Zone wrote:So looks like it will stay offshore and not affect Atlantic Canada as well?

That's not certain yet.

jhpigott · #2083 Postby **jhpigott** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:02 pm

Is the new UKMET out yet? Is it still showing the hard west/left bend?

#2084 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:05 pm

jhpigott wrote:Is the new UKMET out yet? Is it still showing the hard west/left bend?

The 00Z Ukmet run comes out around 1-2am EST. Will it still be showing the westward bend? That is the big question with this model as it has consistently done this for a few days now.

meriland23 · #2085 Postby **meriland23** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:08 pm

Here is a loop of 18z nogaps scary

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

jhpigott · #2086 Postby **jhpigott** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:08 pm

Unlike with Irene, the models have not been very tightly clustered with Katia. The spread was very narrow with Irene - presumably because the steering set up was not nearly as complex as we now have with Katia.

#2087 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:09 pm

meriland23 wrote:Here is a loop of 18z nogaps scary

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

That shows yesterday's (Sept 1 @ 18Z) Nogaps 18Z run.

meriland23 · #2088 Postby **meriland23** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:16 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
meriland23 wrote:Here is a loop of 18z nogaps scary

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

That shows yesterday's (Sept 1 @ 18Z) Nogaps 18Z run.

Oh sorry, gah easy to mix them up, this one is correct :darrow:

, you can compare the two I guess, still scary

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All

#2089 Postby **angelwing** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:31 pm

If that holds, PA is gonna get slammed on both sides :eek:

Fyzn94 · #2090 Postby **Fyzn94** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:40 pm

If her path would quit bending west, I'd feel a little more at ease... :roll:

maxintensity · #2091 Postby **maxintensity** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:57 pm

Nogaps is the nightmare scenario as people in the NE would blow the storm off after the Irene debacle. GFS and Euro will need to flip though for that scenario to gain credibility.

#2092 Postby **fci** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:41 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
jhpigott wrote:Is the new UKMET out yet? Is it still showing the hard west/left bend?

The 00Z Ukmet run comes out around 1-2am EST. Will it still be showing the westward bend? That is the big question with this model as it has consistently done this for a few days now.

The UKMET seems to be the model giving the NHC the most fits since it belies the relative consensus of the others. Even as the others shift a bit west, they are still far from the outlier that thd UKMET has been.

ladilan · #2093 Postby **ladilan** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:41 pm

The worrisome part is that we havent even had any recon fly into the storm yet...that could change its future direction....

#2094 Postby **fci** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:44 pm

ladilan wrote:The worrisome part is that we havent even had any recon fly into the storm yet...that could change its future direction....

Plus dropsone air sampling

SouthFLTropics · #2095 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:48 pm

Is it just me or does it look like Katia has decoupled and a portion has moved off to the NW while the other portion has continued west???

SFT

#2096 Postby **SootyTern** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:50 pm

NWS Miami taking note of trough that could be the one to deflect Katia?

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A COMPLETE
TRANSITION OF LEE TO A MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN
ASSOCIATED "FRONTAL BOUNDARY" MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA.
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL UP NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND SO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS SEEMS A GOOD BET THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE THIS BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS MIA
SOMETIME FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#2097 Postby **blazess556** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:53 pm

Very good website to track Katia and compare with how the models are doing.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

#2098 Postby **SootyTern** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:15 pm

What is the link to the animated NHC tracks/cones? Thanks!

#2099 Postby **JtSmarts** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:16 pm

SootyTern wrote:What is the link to the animated NHC tracks/cones? Thanks!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/KATIA_graphics.shtml

Deputy Van Halen · #2100 Postby **Deputy Van Halen** » Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:26 pm

If Katia shows any indication of threatening the east coast, I bet that the fact that this was Katrina's former place in the list will help to fuel the hype, since people will see it as an "omen". Even people who don't follow hurricanes closely will notice the similarity in the names.

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