Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

11 PM Track.



Saved image.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Katia passed the latitude of all the islands so a direct threat is over.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE KATIA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS AT ABOUT 400 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. SO THE MAIN ISSUE SHOULD BE THE HIGHER SEAS AND THE CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO KATIA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS 00Z RUN IS FORECASTING PW VALUES IN THE 1.65
TO 1.85 RANGE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY MORNING...IT DRIES IT
UP EVEN MORE WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 1.3 ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
CLIMBING UP AGAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT PATTERNS. WHILE THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY
OBSERVE ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL
HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL PR. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST STORM MOTION IS
VERY SLOW...ONLY 1 TO 3 KNOTS FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY ACCORDING
TO THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAME AREA...INCREASING THE RISK OF FLOODING.

AFTER THIS MONDAY...THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE...AS DRIER AIR
AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA UNTIL
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 03/17Z. AFT 03/17Z...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO GENERALLY
NORTH AND OVER OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN SHRA AND
TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 02/23Z.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFT 03/17Z. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING TODAY
DUE TO BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET IN AN EAST NORTHEAST SWELL
AS HURRICANE KATIA MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
AS OF 03/08Z...BUOY 41101 EAST OF MARTINIQUE WAS REPORTING A WAVE
HEIGHT OF 9.2 FT AND A MAX HEIGHT OF 10.5 FT A FEW HOURS
PRIOR...BUOY 41044 IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC IN 21.65N AND 58.69W WAS
REPORTING A WAVE HEIGHT OF 13.8 FT...WHILE AT BUOY 41043 IN THE SW
ATLANTIC WAS REPORTING A WAVE HEIGHT OF 3 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 78 / 40 20 30 10
STT 88 78 87 79 / 30 30 30 10

[Gustywind]

Katia moving away from us

[cycloneye]

Small Craft Advisory

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

...SWELL FROM HURRICANE KATIA WILL GRADUALLY INVADE THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING...

.HURRICANE KATIA LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST. SWELLS FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN ARRIVING TO OUR OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
LATER THIS EVENING AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 8 FEET IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THOSE WATERS.

AMZ712-032345-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SC.Y.0124.110904T1600Z-110905T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
1138 AM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON
AST MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO
NOON AST MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING SWELLS.

* WAVES: SEAS OF 7 FEET WILL BEGIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING THEN
BUILD TO NEAR 8 FEET LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1257 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

PRC039-047-054-091-101-107-143-145-032000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0411.110903T1657Z-110903T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
1257 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COROZAL...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...VEGA
ALTA AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 1253 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. GAGES INDICATE THAT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF COROZAL AND THE SOUTH
SECTIONS OF VEGA BAJA AND VEGA ALTA...AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 400 PM
AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS
WELL AS LAND ALONG THESE BANKS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6657 1845 6643 1839 6633 1829 6629
1825 6632 1823 6643

$$

BCS

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory for St Marteen Saba and St Eustatious

http://www.meteo.an/SpecialBulletin_SSS.asp

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
212 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

PRC007-019-021-045-051-061-105-135-137-032100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0412.110903T1812Z-110903T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-BAYAMON PR-COMERIO PR-GUAYNABO PR-NARANJITO PR-
AGUAS BUENAS PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
212 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...BAYAMON...COMERIO...GUAYNABO...NARANJITO...AGUAS
BUENAS...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 207 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES
AND U.S.G.S. GAGES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER
BAYAMON...AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST
1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 500 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS
WELL AS LAND ALONG THESE BANKS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1818 6630 1832 6627 1842 6629 1841 6612
1827 6610 1821 6623

$$

BCS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1257 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

PRC039-047-054-091-101-107-143-145-032000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0411.110903T1657Z-110903T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
1257 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COROZAL...FLORIDA...MANATI...MOROVIS...OROCOVIS...VEGA
ALTA AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 1253 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. GAGES INDICATE THAT 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF COROZAL AND THE SOUTH
SECTIONS OF VEGA BAJA AND VEGA ALTA...AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 400 PM
AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS
WELL AS LAND ALONG THESE BANKS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1834 6657 1845 6643 1839 6633 1829 6629
1825 6632 1823 6643

$$

BCS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO...AND THE SLOWLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION...
AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. IN THE LOW LEVELS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC...
AND THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE KATIA NOW SOME 480 MILES OR SO EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND NOW BARELY A HURRICANE...WILL
HELP CREATE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BASED ON LATEST BULLETIN FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...KATIA WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
KATIA REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT...INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING...
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING...LEAD TO CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS FOCUSED PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND AROUND PARTS OF THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WAS REPORTED BY THE LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGERS. THE ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS
AS WELL AS IN SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER LAND.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS...AS THE TUTT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE FURTHER WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...SOME THE RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL AGAIN LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
IN SOME AREAS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRIER AIR AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH ABOUT 03/23Z IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 90 / 20 30 10 30
STT 78 88 78 88 / 30 30 10 20

[cycloneye]

Here is the post that Gusty made at the Katia discussion thread.

In Guadeloupe due to Katia... given of Pro Mets of Meteo-France, some waves have reached 3meters60 this afternoon and some big waves 6meters40! A man is maybe dead while i was fishing . Looks like a big wave has swept him (not official as he's always wanted). I will give you more if i have any infos...

Gusty, my condolenses to the family of the fisherman that died as that big wave swept him in the Butterfly island. Although,Katia will not make a direct impact in the islands, indirectly it can cause problems in the maritime front as we have seen with this incident.

[msbee]

High Surf Advisory for St Marteen Saba and St Eustatious

http://www.meteo.an/SpecialBulletin_SSS.asp

yep, the surf is up. surfer dudes are happy!
I hope they are careful

[msbee]

Gusty, my condolenses to the family of the fisherman that died as that big wave swept him in the Butterfly island. Although,Katia will not make a direct impact in the islands, indirectly it can cause problems in the maritime front as we have seen with this incident.

I hadn't heard that, Luis. my condolence also

[cycloneye]

Gusty, my condolenses to the family of the fisherman that died as that big wave swept him in the Butterfly island. Although,Katia will not make a direct impact in the islands, indirectly it can cause problems in the maritime front as we have seen with this incident.

I hadn't heard that, Luis. my condolence also

I posted Gustys post at the Katia discussion thread on my post above.

[Gustywind]

Gusty, my condolenses to the family of the fisherman that died as that big wave swept him in the Butterfly island. Although,Katia will not make a direct impact in the islands, indirectly it can cause problems in the maritime front as we have seen with this incident.

I hadn't heard that, Luis. my condolence also

Thanks Barbara! Scary moment fo sure , we're waiting for official news but looks like is dead

[Gustywind]

Gusty, my condolenses to the family of the fisherman that died as that big wave swept him in the Butterfly island. Although,Katia will not make a direct impact in the islands, indirectly it can cause problems in the maritime front as we have seen with this incident.

I hadn't heard that, Luis. my condolence also

I posted Gustys post at the Katia discussion thread on my post above.

Thanks Luis, good job as usual, i appreciate sincerely. You're RIGHT: indirect impacts are often nasty and here we are with a man dead. Maybe you were sniffing something out there this morning... i won't forget your sentence!

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST SUN SEP 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SWELL GENERATED BY THE STORM WILL AFFECT OUR
LOCAL WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE AREA TO HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE
REST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MAY OBSERVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
BUT NOTHING VERY SIGNIFICANT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY AND WITH ABOUT
HALF OF THE CAPE AS YESTERDAY...K-INDEX VALUES ARE STILL
HIGH...TOTALS INDEX ABOVE 40...PW VALUES ARE ABOUT 1.8 TO 1.9 AND
LIFTED INDEX ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -5.0. HOWEVER...STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY IS VERY LOW...RANGING FROM -4 IN THE GFS TO 5 IN
THE NAM.

SO FOR TODAY...EXPECT THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND GIVEN THE
SLOW STORM MOTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR COMING IN. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...ONCE AGAIN INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.




&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 04/17Z. AFT 04/17Z...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN...AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO GENERALLY NORTH AND
OVER OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN SHRA AND TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ...
TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 04/23Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AFT 04/17Z. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN LOCAL WATERS DUE TO A SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM KATIA. BUOY 41043 WAS REPORTING WAVES OF AT LEAST 7.5 FT AT
03/08Z. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE STILL FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS OF UP TO
9 FEET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 78 / 20 30 30 0
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 10 10 10

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity between Africa and the Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory Issued for Puerto Rico, USVI,BVI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SUN SEP 4 2011

...LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL PASSAGES STARTING THIS EVENING...
AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING... DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH FACING COASTLINES...

.MODERATE LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
AND QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES
STARTING THIS EVENING...THEN PEAK EARLY MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRZ001-002-005-008-012-VIZ001-050300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0002.110904T2200Z-110905T1500Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-CULEBRA-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
252 PM AST SUN SEP 4 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM AST
MONDAY.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM AST THIS EVENING AT
LEAST UNTIL 11 AM AST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING COASTLINES UNTIL 11 AM AST MONDAY...DUE
TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS.

* WAVES AND SURF: BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET OR LARGER ARE
EXPECTED... ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES SHOALS AND
REEFS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

* TIMING: SEAS WILL BUILD AND RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES...BRINGING INCREASINGLY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES TO THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL PEAK AROUND 2 AM AST MONDAY...BUT SUBSIDE SLOWLY.

* IMPACTS: HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE LOWEST COASTAL AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE HEIGHT AND LONG PERIOD OF THE WAVES COMBINING WITH HIGH TIDE.

* THESE SURGING WAVES WILL ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR BEACH
EROSION DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:


SAN JUAN HARBOR: 2:00 AM AST MONDAY MORNING AT 1.1 FEET.
3:55 PM AST MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 1.8 FEET.

PLAYA DE FAJARDO: 1:50 AM AST MONDAY MORNING AT 1.1 FEET.
3:45 PM AST MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 1.8 FEET

ENSENADA HONDA CULEBRA: 1:26 AM AST MONDAY MORNING AT 0.7 FEET.
3:21 PM AST MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 1.1 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 7:39 AM AST MONDAY MORNING AT 0.2 FEET.
4:55 PM AST MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 1.6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE
BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF
ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE
LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

RAM/ER/TS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Gustywind]

For info, for those who are interrested...
Meteo-France Guadeloupe reported yesterday at 6PM average waves of 4meters 60 with a higher wave reaching 7meters 90 .

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SUN SEP 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...BASED ON LATEST BULLETIN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2:00 PM AST...RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANE KATIA WAS
CENTERED NEAR 21.9N 59.2W OR ABOUT 350 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT
MARTIN IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND
12 MPH. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS NEAR 100 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES.. THEREFORE AT THIS TIME...KATIA WILL REMAIN AND CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE
KATIA...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WILL CREATE AND HELP MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY...WHEN KATIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BECAME PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY
CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LOCALLY TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION FORMED ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL
AS OVER SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR LABOR DAY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER
WEATHER TREND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY..BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST. WITH THIS...EXPECT
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND
THUS INCREASED CHANGES FOR SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 04/17Z. AFT 04/17Z...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN...AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO GENERALLY NORTH AND
OVER OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN SHRA AND TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ...
TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 04/23Z. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AFT 04/17Z. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 78 89 / 30 30 0 10
STT 78 88 77 88 / 10 20 10 10

[Gustywind]

Hot fever in Guadeloupe... 34°Celsius have been reported at Ste Rose and le Moule.