ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030403
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 33 20110903
035400 2845N 09101W 8428 01497 //// +180 //// 173030 031 018 001 05
035430 2847N 09101W 8429 01496 //// +180 //// 165028 029 /// /// 05
035500 2847N 09102W 8430 01496 //// +183 //// 165026 026 023 000 05
035530 2848N 09104W 8432 01493 //// +182 //// 166025 025 024 001 05
035600 2848N 09106W 8432 01492 //// +179 //// 164024 025 022 000 01
035630 2849N 09108W 8430 01493 //// +179 //// 159025 025 026 000 01
035700 2850N 09110W 8430 01496 //// +178 //// 154025 025 027 000 01
035730 2851N 09112W 8432 01496 //// +180 //// 155025 025 027 000 01
035800 2851N 09112W 8432 01496 //// +179 //// 154023 024 028 000 01
035830 2852N 09115W 8429 01496 //// +180 //// 150022 022 030 001 05
035900 2853N 09117W 8432 01492 //// +180 //// 148022 022 030 000 05
035930 2854N 09119W 8430 01493 //// +180 //// 145021 021 031 001 05
040000 2855N 09121W 8429 01493 //// +181 //// 143020 020 031 000 01
040030 2856N 09123W 8433 01488 //// +180 //// 141019 020 031 001 01
040100 2856N 09125W 8429 01491 //// +180 //// 136020 020 030 000 05
040130 2857N 09126W 8432 01487 //// +180 //// 129021 021 030 000 01
040200 2858N 09128W 8432 01488 //// +179 //// 128021 022 030 000 01
040230 2859N 09130W 8432 01486 //// +178 //// 125022 023 031 000 01
040300 2900N 09132W 8432 01487 //// +179 //// 112022 023 032 001 01
040330 2901N 09134W 8431 01487 //// +177 //// 103025 027 031 003 01
$$
;

[Viper54r]

I was watching Jay Grimes - he is definitely my met of choice.

JSDS, you post on TD?

[bamajammer4eva]

In case anybody is interested, TWC is streaming live online now and their local on the 8s, conditions and warnings are the ones as Pensacola sees it.. Why they picked Pensacola over New Orleans is beyond me. Of course right now they are airing a show talking about a past tornado outbreak instead of live weather. Guess Lee isn't all that important. But its TWC live anyway. Anyway, here is the link.

http://www.justin.tv/weatherbroadcast#/w/1707951280/9

[Countrygirl911]

ok our local mets have us getting 4 inches of rain but the weather channel says 6 to 10 inches between now and sunday and some areas could get more but we have rain all the way to wendsday in our forcast so i know that amount will go up

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 33

[JSDS]

I was watching Jay Grimes - he is definitely my met of choice.

JSDS, you post on TD?

What is TD?

[Annie Oakley]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 04:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 3:55Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.8N 91.0W
Location: 99 miles (159 km) to the SW (215°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 170° at 25 knots (From the S at ~ 28.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,425 geopotential meters

[Annie Oakley]

DECODED VORTEX LATEST
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 04:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 3:33:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°57'N 91°55'W (27.95N 91.9167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 157 miles (252 km) to the S (178°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,418m (4,652ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (225°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 325° at 25kts (From the NW at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SW (223°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 2:15:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:50:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SSW/SW (214°) from the flight level center

[weatherSnoop]

NE of previous fix

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030413
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 34 20110903
040400 2901N 09136W 8429 01488 //// +157 //// 096029 033 036 003 01
040430 2901N 09136W 8429 01488 //// +175 //// 099032 036 039 002 01
040500 2903N 09140W 8437 01479 //// +175 //// 094036 038 041 005 01
040530 2904N 09142W 8430 01486 //// +173 //// 094037 038 045 009 01
040600 2905N 09144W 8427 01488 //// +156 //// 088039 041 046 020 01
040630 2906N 09146W 8440 01476 //// +147 //// 084037 038 050 018 01
040700 2907N 09148W 8433 01488 //// +163 //// 086034 035 046 009 01
040730 2907N 09150W 8423 01497 //// +168 //// 086040 044 044 007 01
040800 2908N 09152W 8434 01487 //// +172 //// 076047 049 043 003 01
040830 2909N 09154W 8426 01497 //// +179 //// 073045 046 040 000 05
040900 2910N 09155W 8435 01489 //// +180 //// 069036 038 039 000 05
040930 2911N 09157W 8429 01498 //// +179 //// 072040 044 040 000 05
041000 2912N 09159W 8429 01498 //// +173 //// 074044 045 039 000 01
041030 2912N 09201W 8432 01496 //// +174 //// 073045 048 038 000 05
041100 2913N 09203W 8431 01497 //// +173 //// 071047 048 037 001 01
041130 2914N 09205W 8431 01499 //// +168 //// 069046 046 037 000 01
041200 2915N 09207W 8429 01502 //// +164 //// 071045 046 039 003 01
041230 2916N 09209W 8429 01502 //// +166 //// 072046 047 039 002 01
041300 2917N 09211W 8434 01498 //// +162 //// 073046 046 039 001 01
041330 2917N 09213W 8429 01504 //// +166 //// 072046 046 040 001 05
$$

[BigB0882]

From hr 48 to 72 this goes from just off shore south of Laf to the MS/AL border, inland. Takes off after 48 hours, apparently. Seems further West to me, just by a hair, should mean more rain and wind for my area than what NHC shows.

This is 00z GFS

[nashrobertsx]

did something happen to this thread? no one has posted in 2 hours.. unusual

[BigB0882]

I don't have access to the models but in the Katia thread someone posted the 00z GFS

In 24 hours it seems a bit West and just off shore south of Lafayette. Stays in the same spot at 48 hours. Then begins moving and by 72 hours it is inland at the MS/AL border. Seems West of NHC which has been my opinion all along. Not a huge difference this close but for my area it could be the difference between 5 inches or 10 inches of rain and higher winds.

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 34

[Ptarmigan]

I hope Lee weakens, so the center breaks down and more moisture spreads to Texas.

[PTrackerLA]

The latest GFS shows us still receiving 5"-10" of rain. Lee looks to sit directly over Lafayette for some bit of time, we'll see. About to have the heaviest squalls yet move in from the east, a solid mass of yellow and orange radar returns.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030423
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 35 20110903
041400 2918N 09215W 8430 01505 //// +171 //// 073044 045 040 002 05
041430 2919N 09217W 8430 01505 //// +172 //// 072044 045 041 000 05
041500 2920N 09219W 8432 01505 //// +171 //// 073044 045 040 001 05
041530 2921N 09221W 8433 01504 //// +174 //// 072044 044 039 000 05
041600 2922N 09223W 8430 01509 //// +171 //// 073044 044 039 001 01
041630 2922N 09225W 8430 01510 //// +173 //// 073042 043 038 001 05
041700 2923N 09227W 8433 01509 //// +174 //// 073041 042 037 001 05
041730 2924N 09229W 8428 01516 //// +175 //// 071040 040 037 000 05
041800 2925N 09231W 8429 01514 //// +169 //// 068040 041 038 002 01
041830 2926N 09232W 8430 01515 //// +173 //// 070041 041 036 001 01
041900 2927N 09234W 8433 01515 //// +177 //// 070041 041 036 000 05
041930 2927N 09236W 8428 01520 //// +176 //// 069040 041 035 000 05
042000 2928N 09238W 8429 01516 //// +176 //// 070038 038 036 001 05
042030 2929N 09240W 8432 01514 //// +175 //// 071038 039 035 000 05
042100 2930N 09242W 8430 01516 //// +173 //// 069040 040 034 000 01
042130 2931N 09244W 8432 01514 //// +173 //// 065042 042 033 000 01
042200 2931N 09246W 8432 01518 //// +178 //// 067041 041 032 001 05
042230 2932N 09248W 8428 01522 //// +176 //// 067042 042 032 000 05
042300 2932N 09250W 8426 01522 //// +179 //// 067040 041 /// /// 05
042330 2930N 09250W 8429 01520 //// +176 //// 067037 038 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Raininfyr]

From hr 48 to 72 this goes from just off shore south of Laf to the MS/AL border, inland. Takes off after 48 hours, apparently. Seems further West to me, just by a hair, should mean more rain and wind for my area than what NHC shows.

This is 00z GFS

BigB, watched Jay Grimes. He said that landfall not til Sunday. And, he thought it was possible we could get 10 inches. He talked about limited power outages and possible falling trees. Winds he said would be tropical storm force. In the last 5 minutes, the rain and wind has picked up. I can hear the wind over the tv. All you can do is be prepared and stay safe no matter what happens. I sure hope this is nothing like Gustav (trees). Mr. Grimes did not think it would become a hurricane.

This is not an official forecast at all, ever. Check the NWS for updates in your area. Stay dry and safe everyone in La., MS and Florida.

[Ptarmigan]

Are we at our 28 year average yet?!?!?!?!

Jerry came in 1989. There was a 9 year gap with October hurricanes between 1886 and 1895. Than a 43 year gap between 1895 to 1938. Following that, 11 year gap between 1938 and 1949. Between October 1949 and October 1989, you got a 40 year gap.

In regards to Lee, the models are not looking good for Texas.

[psyclone]

you guys in baton rouge look to be riding the line at this point. there could be a very tight precip gradient in your area that would be virtually impossible to nail down beforehand. kinda of a nowcasting situation at this point. one well placed convective burst could easily yield several inches of rain yet such events are impossible to forecast well in advance. i guess an analog would be northern snowstorm where you go from a couple of inches to a foot in a 40 mile span. tough to get a handle on it until the flakes are flying.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.