ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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fci
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2121 Postby fci » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:14 pm

lonelymike wrote:Katia ain't gonna be no Katrina :roll:

A second storm striking an area that is in the recovery stage from a prior storm on the East Coast might not be to the level of Katrina but could be a terrible situation. These areas suffered badly with a Tropical Storm. I don't want to imagine a repeat performance let alone a Hurricane doing it.
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#2122 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:15 pm

h96
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#2123 Postby maxintensity » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:15 pm

gfs having none of it. Trending NE this run despite other models going west.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2124 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:16 pm

If Katia stays as a Category 1 or weakens again, that could be a bigger problem as weaker storms are less influenced by upper air patterns.
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#2125 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:19 pm

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Re:

#2126 Postby Riptide » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:21 pm

maxintensity wrote:gfs having none of it. Trending NE this run despite other models going west.

Katia is not going anywhere with that ridge chilling in the NE, don't recall it being that strong (or large) in prior runs.
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#2127 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:26 pm

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#2128 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:30 pm

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Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2129 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:31 pm

Personally looking at the GFS, this could be like Esther - the loop or Felix 1995 trackwise

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#2130 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:32 pm

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#2131 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:34 pm

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#2132 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:35 pm

00z nogaps a touch weaker and slightly south and west of 12z... big big difference with the location of Lee as well...
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#2133 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:38 pm

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Re: Re:

#2134 Postby maxintensity » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:40 pm

Riptide wrote:
maxintensity wrote:gfs having none of it. Trending NE this run despite other models going west.

Katia is not going anywhere with that ridge chilling in the NE, don't recall it being that strong (or large) in prior runs.

was actually weaker this run than what 18z had, and even 18z went safely out to sea. GFS could be wrong but it is much weaker on the ridging than ukmet and nogaps.
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#2135 Postby supercane » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:44 pm

00Z GFS farther east than earlier runs and also shows recurve:
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Re:

#2136 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:52 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:00z nogaps a touch weaker and slightly south and west of 12z... big big difference with the location of Lee as well...


Would you please go in the Lee thread and tell us what that difference is. No one has been posting model runs.
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#2137 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:53 pm

Here, if you guys want to compare 18z vs 0z here is a time lapse of the two

18z
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

0z
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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Re:

#2138 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:01 am

supercane wrote:00Z GFS farther east than earlier runs and also shows recurve:
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/4983/t ... 00east.gif

Hey do you have a graph like that but for the euro?
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#2139 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:05 am

:uarrow: here's the EURO for 12z and 00z (09/02)...

Image

anyway, NOGAPS showing an OBX brush again... :eek:
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#2140 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:05 am

:uarrow: ECMWF is a non-free model, so while the figure exists, it is restricted by password.
How did you get that? (PM me if possible).
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