ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

Re:

#2141 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:10 am

supercane wrote::uarrow: ECMWF is a non-free model, so while the figure exists, it is restricted by password.
How did you get that? (PM me if possible).


i have teh pazword, haha just kidding... :lol:
here, you can use this:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/glblgen/

Under the "Operational extratropical cyclone tracks", use the "For forecast tracks in different regions:"
note that the Euro is one run late so the latest you will find there would be the 12z run... :)
0 likes   

User avatar
summersquall
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 230
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:23 am
Location: Jensen Beach FL 27°N 80°W (roughly)

#2142 Postby summersquall » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:15 am

Katia was a tropical storm gathering energy over the Atlantic Ocean when one of the Expedition 28 crew took this photo on Aug. 31, 2011, from aboard the International Space Station. Image
Image Credit: NASA
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-09-ima ... space.html
0 likes   
My posts should NEVER, EVER, EVER be construed as an official forecast as I know virtually nada respecting the finer points of meteorology. Consequently, my posts are obviously NOT endorsed by any professional institution or the good folks at storm2k.org. For official information please refer to the weather gurus at the NHC and NWS.

User avatar
Epsilon_Fan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 353
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2006 1:03 pm
Location: Charleston, SC

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2143 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:26 am

From the latest loop, it looks to be heading north (!) in the last few frames. Am I seeing things?
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2144 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 03, 2011 12:46 am

Using climo only, the overall chances have increased from 33% to 52% with the position Katia is now vs 3 days ago.

Previous posting

Currently

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2145 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:16 am

0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
GlennOBX
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:15 am
Location: Duck, NC

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2146 Postby GlennOBX » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:20 am

Glenn in Kill Devil Hills, NC here. First post, but I've been reading the mail here for a while, and learning a lot.

I saw where one of the models (NOGAPS, I think) is predicting a landfall at or near the OBX. I'm wondering if this type of thing, with 2 hurricanes making landfall in the same area within a 2 week period or so, has happened before? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

I've lived on the OBX since January of 99, and Irene was the first time I ever left for a storm. (Had all my storm supplies ready to go, such as they are, and the other half said "I'm going to Wake Forest, and you're coming with me") Hoping we don't have a repeat of that situation coming up.

Glenn
KC4SJU
KDH NC
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2147 Postby fci » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:23 am

GlennOBX wrote:Glenn in Kill Devil Hills, NC here. First post, but I've been reading the mail here for a while, and learning a lot.

I saw where one of the models (NOGAPS, I think) is predicting a landfall at or near the OBX. I'm wondering if this type of thing, with 2 hurricanes making landfall in the same area within a 2 week period or so, has happened before? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

I've lived on the OBX since January of 99, and Irene was the first time I ever left for a storm. (Had all my storm supplies ready to go, such as they are, and the other half said "I'm going to Wake Forest, and you're coming with me") Hoping we don't have a repeat of that situation coming up.

Glenn
KC4SJU
KDH NC


Well, not 2 weeks, but three weeks apart; Francis and Jeanne. Actually the eye came ashore near Hobe South both times exactly 3 weeks apart.
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2148 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:28 am

Dennis and Floyd 1999?? Hit same areas close together.
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2149 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:29 am

00Z UKMET is even further west. Shows a track similar to Ike 08'
Something has got to give. Which models are right? The UKMET or pretty much all the others?

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2858
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2150 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:32 am

Epsilon_Fan wrote:From the latest loop, it looks to be heading north (!) in the last few frames. Am I seeing things?

:uarrow: My interpretation of the satellite loop is when the convection on the south and west sides eroded, it gave the impression that the system temporarily moved north, but in reality Katia still seems to be moving generally NWard.
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2151 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:34 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:00Z UKMET is even further west. Shows a track similar to Ike 08'
Something has got to give. Which models are right? The UKMET or pretty much all the others?



To me, this looks north and more west with a less abrasive curve. People in north c. should keep a close eye on this.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Annie Oakley
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1103
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
Location: Texas

#2152 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:37 am

I like that one Meri...keep it away. (NOT the UKMET ha ha)
0 likes   

User avatar
GlennOBX
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:15 am
Location: Duck, NC

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2153 Postby GlennOBX » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:38 am

I lived in Duck during Dennis and Floyd, and remember both. I don't remember if Dennis actually made landfall, or if it parked just off the coast and made everybody miserable for a few days. Floyd flooded a lot of areas here, that much I do remember.
0 likes   

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2154 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:43 am

0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2155 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:48 am

0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2156 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 1:52 am

hwrf,cmc,euro,gfs they all look about the same track. Further east..
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#2157 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 2:11 am

THIS ONE IS SERIOUS

NOGAPS Oz run (animation)

Note: look at the storm at around 168+, it shows a DIRECT HIT up the entire nc coastline and it looks to me that judging by the colors, that it is a significant hurricane by landfall according to this, might not be as reputable as euro, but don't slough off this model. NOGAPS is well known for accurate long term forecasting. :eek:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 00&set=All

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2158 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 03, 2011 2:20 am

Down to a TS yet again per BT. Really struggling to maintain hurricane intensity
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
meriland23
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1239
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2011 9:29 pm

#2159 Postby meriland23 » Sat Sep 03, 2011 2:20 am

THIS ONE IS SERIOUS

NOGAPS Oz run (animation)

Note: look at the storm at around 168+, it shows a DIRECT HIT up the entire nc coastline and it looks to me that judging by the colors, that it is a significant hurricane by landfall according to this, might not be as reputable as euro, but don't slough off this model. NOGAPS is well known for accurate long term forecasting. :eek:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 00&set=All

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

supercane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2858
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:27 pm

#2160 Postby supercane » Sat Sep 03, 2011 2:29 am

meriland23 wrote:NOGAPS is well known for accurate long term forecasting.


:uarrow: NOGAPS is well known, but for the exact opposite reason: it is not one of the more reliable models. From the most recent (2010) NHC model verification report (pdf file, page 11):
The best-performing dynamical model in 2010 was EMXI, followed by GFSI. The GHMI, GF5I, HWFI, and EGRI made up the “second tier” of three-dimensional dynamical models, and NGPI and GFNI performed less well, with skill comparable to or even lower than the two-dimensional BAM collection.

where the ending I's mean the last-model run interpolated to the current position, EMX=ECMWF, GFSI=GFS, GHMI=GFDL, HWFI=HWRF, EGRI=EGRR, NGPI=NOGAPS, and GFNI=GFDN.[/quote]

This doesn't necessarily mean that NOGAPS can't be right in a given situation, but to favor it over the more reliable ECMWF and GFS requires an explanation of why the synoptic handling is better in the former than the latter two star performers.
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests