ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[EasyTiger]

I know it's not the model thread, but the NAM showed part of the system heading south back into the Gulf and becoming a hurricane while another part shoots off to the northeast.

[pwrdog]

I think it's more that the NHC can't locate a clear center...this is looking more like a winter storm in satellite signature according to The Weather Channel

From NHC Discussion:
THERE ARE TWO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF 005/05 KT
IS BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION BETWEEN THOSE TWO VORTICES...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE RECON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER.

The storm moved just a tad south and east between the two advisories.
29.4N/92.0W
29.3N/91.8W

It did swallow a Upper Low last night... Maybe it's a little confused on what it is now...

[EasyTiger]

I think it's more that the NHC can't locate a clear center...this is looking more like a winter storm in satellite signature according to The Weather Channel

From NHC Discussion:
THERE ARE TWO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS APPARENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF 005/05 KT
IS BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION BETWEEN THOSE TWO VORTICES...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE RECON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER.

The storm moved just a tad south and east between the two advisories.
29.4N/92.0W
29.3N/91.8W

It did swallow a Upper Low last night... Maybe it's a little confused on what it is now...

Subtropical?

[jinftl]

Conditions in the Gulf - dry air and shear - don't look like they would support this becoming a hurricane, even if it stayed over water longer than forecast

I know it's not the model thread, but the NAM showed part of the system heading south back into the Gulf and becoming a hurricane while another part shoots off to the northeast.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

lol yep

Greg - I got that hurricane statement on my Weather Bug...What the heck?

Who knows? No Hurricane at all anywhere.

[rockyman]

GFS is getting ready to run...let's see if it follows the NAM:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[cycloneye]

Looks more subtropical to me..

To me also looks that way.Here is the shortwave saved loop.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Conditions in the Gulf - dry air and shear - don't look like they would support this becoming a hurricane, even if it stayed over water longer than forecast

I know it's not the model thread, but the NAM showed part of the system heading south back into the Gulf and becoming a hurricane while another part shoots off to the northeast.

Nam has done well with this believe it or not. Esp. in the beginning.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031529
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 28 20110903
152000 2926N 09220W 8430 01426 //// +204 //// 032018 019 032 000 01
152030 2927N 09220W 8429 01427 //// +197 //// 036019 019 033 000 05
152100 2929N 09220W 8426 01430 //// +192 //// 048019 019 031 000 05
152130 2930N 09219W 8433 01425 //// +195 //// 047018 020 /// /// 05
152200 2930N 09218W 8430 01424 //// +194 //// 041016 017 029 000 05
152230 2930N 09216W 8427 01426 //// +204 //// 053012 013 029 000 05
152300 2930N 09214W 8430 01422 //// +203 //// 089011 012 026 000 05
152330 2930N 09212W 8428 01425 //// +202 //// 123014 015 020 000 05
152400 2930N 09211W 8432 01423 //// +202 //// 140018 018 019 000 05
152430 2930N 09209W 8429 01429 //// +200 //// 139020 021 021 000 01
152500 2930N 09207W 8430 01426 //// +195 //// 146021 023 025 000 01
152530 2930N 09205W 8432 01425 //// +196 //// 149023 024 026 000 05
152600 2930N 09203W 8428 01433 //// +195 //// 144023 024 022 000 05
152630 2930N 09202W 8428 01432 //// +201 //// 143023 024 023 000 05
152700 2930N 09200W 8436 01427 //// +203 //// 144023 023 022 001 05
152730 2929N 09158W 8428 01433 //// +195 //// 146022 022 022 000 01
152800 2928N 09157W 8430 01432 //// +193 //// 150022 022 023 000 05
152830 2928N 09155W 8429 01434 //// +193 //// 155022 022 025 000 01
152900 2927N 09154W 8432 01432 //// +193 //// 158022 023 021 000 05
152930 2926N 09152W 8429 01436 //// +186 //// 159024 025 021 000 05

Flying along the LA coast to the east

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Nam hasnt done bad with this believe it or not.

[HenkL]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 031530
XXAA 53158 99291 70923 08292 99992 27422 17504 00568 ///// /////
92622 23824 03006 85360 20034 09004 88999 77999
31313 09608 81513
61616 AF307 0513A LEE OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 2908N09228W 1515 MBL WND 17004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 09
002 992843 WL150 17505 084 REL 2908N09228W 151308 SPG 2908N09228W
151457 =
XXBB 53158 99291 70923 08292 00992 27422 11850 20034
21212 00992 17504 11969 17006 22944 00000 33921 02007 44896 04502
55859 07502 66843 09005
31313 09608 81513
61616 AF307 0513A LEE OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 2908N09228W 1515 MBL WND 17004 AEV 20802 DLM WND 09
002 992843 WL150 17505 084 REL 2908N09228W 151308 SPG 2908N09228W
151457 =
;


Pressure in center: 992

[rockyman]

GFS--12 hours--still offshore

GFS--18 hours--right on the coast--drifting WNW

GFS--24 hours--right on the coast--almost stationary

GFS--30 hours--right on the coast--still stationary

[windnrain]

In the visible, its so weird how you see two centers doing entirely different things. One is moving and making landfall north, one is moving southeast. Cloud cover seems to be increasing, and more rain on the radar too. Is it possible for that southern center to win out and bring this thing offshore again?

[allicat1214]

Drifting southward in this saved loop image.

http://i.imgur.com/vYfbB.gif

I absolutely love this image. The two centers appear to make a figure eight here....

Now that's not something you see every day..

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KNHC 031534
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 03/15:13:00Z
B. 29 deg 05 min N
092 deg 16 min W
C. 850 mb 1355 m
D. 39 kt
E. 132 deg 151 nm
F. 220 deg 32 kt
G. 122 deg 57 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 18 C / 1523 m
J. 20 C / 1521 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF307 0513A LEE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 38 KT SW QUAD 13:14:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 080 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[tailgater]

Yeah that's pretty cool.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031540
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 29 20110903
153000 2926N 09151W 8431 01432 //// +181 //// 165022 023 023 000 05
153030 2925N 09149W 8432 01435 //// +185 //// 161022 022 023 000 05
153100 2924N 09148W 8428 01440 //// +185 //// 161023 023 021 001 01
153130 2923N 09147W 8430 01437 //// +185 //// 163024 024 024 000 01
153200 2923N 09145W 8428 01442 //// +185 //// 168025 025 025 000 05
153230 2922N 09144W 8430 01442 //// +184 //// 167025 026 026 000 01
153300 2921N 09142W 8430 01443 //// +181 //// 169025 026 027 000 05
153330 2920N 09141W 8430 01443 //// +180 //// 175026 027 026 000 01
153400 2920N 09139W 8429 01444 //// +175 //// 179027 027 026 000 05
153430 2919N 09138W 8429 01446 //// +175 //// 181026 027 025 000 05
153500 2918N 09136W 8432 01445 //// +178 //// 181026 027 025 000 05
153530 2917N 09134W 8432 01447 //// +180 //// 182025 025 025 000 05
153600 2917N 09133W 8431 01447 //// +179 //// 180026 027 025 000 01
153630 2916N 09131W 8430 01450 //// +180 //// 177027 027 025 000 05
153700 2915N 09130W 8429 01451 //// +180 //// 180027 028 025 000 05
153730 2914N 09128W 8429 01451 //// +180 //// 184028 030 026 000 01
153800 2913N 09127W 8429 01454 //// +177 //// 186030 030 025 001 05
153830 2913N 09125W 8432 01452 //// +176 //// 187029 030 027 000 05
153900 2912N 09124W 8427 01457 //// +179 //// 186029 030 028 000 01
153930 2911N 09122W 8429 01456 //// +180 //// 187030 031 026 000 05

[stormy70]

I am south of Fairhope, AL. Between Fish River and Point Clear and about 30 minutes Northwest of Gulf Shores. It is cloudy but no rain at the moment. We did have so heavy down pours throughout the night and early morning but I slept through most of it. LOL Anyway I have not been out but will try to get out today if weather permits and take pictures. I would love to see what Mobile Bay looks like. Yesterday it was calm. I would love to drive down to Gulf Shores too. We are under a Tropical Storm Warning, a Tornado Watch, etc. Opps it is raining now.

[jinftl]

Cool image...some pretty big blowups south of boothville...rain for SE LA may not be winding down for long...

[BigB0882]

I also clearly see both circulations. Weird!