ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Lee's center looks to be a little west than where NHC says it is.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Center looks to be SE of Cameron Parish, little west of NHC's position.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

To all the LA and south MS posters. In regards to all the tornado warnings that were posted since last night did anyone actually have any damage form one or downbursts?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Lee has nudged a little to the west over the past few hours placing our area (SE TEXAS) in the outer rainbands. Mostly light rain expected today and Sunday.

[Dave]

658
URNT15 KNHC 031729
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 40 20110903
172000 2909N 09206W 8425 01433 //// +201 //// 174003 005 011 000 05
172030 2910N 09208W 8433 01424 //// +201 //// 233002 003 018 000 05
172100 2910N 09210W 8426 01433 //// +194 //// 273004 005 017 000 05
172130 2910N 09211W 8428 01429 //// +192 //// 274004 004 017 000 01
172200 2911N 09213W 8430 01428 //// +190 //// 278008 009 017 000 05
172230 2911N 09215W 8433 01424 //// +193 //// 271009 010 017 000 01
172300 2911N 09217W 8429 01430 //// +199 //// 267008 009 016 000 01
172330 2912N 09218W 8427 01430 //// +198 //// 300007 008 017 000 05
172400 2912N 09220W 8429 01428 //// +202 //// 293010 011 015 000 01
172430 2912N 09222W 8429 01429 //// +208 //// 280013 013 016 000 05
172500 2913N 09224W 8429 01426 //// +210 //// 284016 017 019 000 05
172530 2914N 09225W 8423 01438 //// +216 //// 267016 016 /// /// 05
172600 2915N 09223W 8433 01429 //// +216 //// 259016 016 /// /// 05
172630 2914N 09221W 8426 01429 //// +210 //// 266014 014 015 000 05
172700 2913N 09220W 8432 01425 //// +203 //// 278012 012 018 000 05
172730 2911N 09218W 8426 01430 //// +203 //// 274012 013 015 000 01
172800 2910N 09217W 8431 01427 //// +201 //// 266013 013 017 000 01
172830 2909N 09215W 8430 01428 //// +200 //// 257015 016 017 000 05
172900 2908N 09213W 8431 01429 //// +199 //// 262018 019 018 000 05
172930 2908N 09212W 8433 01428 //// +198 //// 271016 016 /// /// 05
$$
;

[waveaxis]

Lee appears to be behaving pretty much as forecast. It was expected to be stalled near the mid LA coast today. As that trof/front dig southward on Sunday, Lee will be picked up and accelerated off to the northeast. No significant wind inland, just offshore. Lots of rain, though. Wish we could see some rain...

Yesterday it was sunny, hot, and dry. Today it's sunny, hot, dry, and *breezy*. Harris Co. is under a fire weather watch. I never thought a tropical cyclone could induce a fire weather watch.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

KFDM, have any thoughts of what the NAM showed? Think there is the chance other models could start to show this scenario later today?

[seaswing]

How far out east are the winds? in other words what is the radius of this storm east and west? looks to me like this storm has winds that reach far out to the east. Thanks.

[Dave]

[artist]

How far out east are the winds? in other words what is the radius of this storm east and west? looks to me like this storm has winds that reach far out to the east. Thanks.

from the latest update -

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 0SW 95NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[Dave]

398
URNT15 KNHC 031739
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 41 20110903
173000 2906N 09212W 8429 01432 //// +195 //// 279017 018 024 000 05
173030 2905N 09213W 8433 01426 //// +195 //// 284019 019 024 000 01
173100 2904N 09214W 8433 01430 //// +196 //// 287019 019 /// /// 05
173130 2904N 09215W 8425 01435 //// +200 //// 277016 017 027 000 05
173200 2906N 09216W 8430 01431 //// +201 //// 266016 017 022 000 05
173230 2907N 09216W 8432 01428 //// +202 //// 271015 015 022 000 01
173300 2909N 09217W 8429 01429 //// +205 //// 268014 015 018 000 01
173330 2911N 09217W 8432 01425 //// +202 //// 257009 012 015 000 01
173400 2912N 09217W 8428 01429 //// +197 //// 234006 007 015 000 05
173430 2914N 09218W 8425 01432 //// +206 //// 208005 005 014 000 05
173500 2915N 09219W 8433 01424 //// +206 //// 234006 007 017 000 05
173530 2916N 09221W 8427 01426 //// +212 //// 211009 009 018 000 05
173600 2917N 09222W 8432 01422 //// +215 //// 172007 007 017 001 05
173630 2918N 09223W 8427 01424 //// +216 //// 113009 010 024 000 05
173700 2919N 09225W 8428 01422 //// +206 //// 104012 013 026 000 05
173730 2919N 09227W 8433 01416 //// +202 //// 091012 013 027 000 01
173800 2920N 09229W 8430 01416 //// +196 //// 085012 013 031 000 01
173830 2920N 09231W 8425 01425 //// +193 //// 078015 017 /// /// 05
173900 2919N 09232W 8428 01420 //// +199 //// 065014 016 027 000 05
173930 2918N 09231W 8433 01410 //// +203 //// 059007 009 025 000 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STALLS JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE HAS BEEN STATIONARY THE PAST
FEW HOURS. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF LEE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED BY A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A C-MAN STATION AT SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA
RECENTLY MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H AT AN
ELEVATION OF 100 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.

A STORM SURGE OF 4 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SHELL BEACH LOUISIANA
AND ALSO AT NEW CANAL STATION IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A SURGE HEIGHT
OF 2 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FAR EAST AS PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED THUS FAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OFFSHORE OIL RIGS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[Dave]

[BigB0882]

Stationary, good thing Baton Rouge isn't under much rain right now...although I am about to take a nap so a good downpour would be nice. lol

991 mb pressure, continues to fall. Not too surprising, I did see some bursts trying to pull in around the center.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NAM may be on to something!!

[Hurricanehink]

We see a storm go from subtropical to tropical often, but has nhc ever "downgraded' a storm from tropical to subtropical?

Don't think so. They go from tropical to extratropical. I suppose Lee is more of a subtropical storm now, though.

There have been a few storms in the best track that went from tropical to subtropical, including Allison in 01, Klaus in 1984, Jose in 81, and Gilda in 1973. As far as I know, Jose is the only one to have had the subtropical designation applied operationally (this - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... 11600z.jpg - vs. this - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... 12200z.jpg).

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NAM traps it

[Dave]

046
URNT15 KNHC 031749
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 42 20110903
174000 2916N 09230W 8431 01413 //// +201 //// 058002 004 019 000 05
174030 2915N 09229W 8425 01419 //// +198 //// 245001 003 021 000 05
174100 2914N 09227W 8439 01408 //// +209 //// 275007 011 019 000 05
174130 2912N 09227W 8422 01429 //// +221 //// 278020 023 /// /// 05
174200 2912N 09229W 8427 01418 //// +217 //// 294021 022 025 000 05
174230 2912N 09231W 8422 01426 //// +206 //// 307021 024 031 000 05
174300 2912N 09232W 8432 01418 //// +207 //// 314027 030 037 000 05
174330 2912N 09234W 8438 01409 //// +220 //// 318033 034 037 000 05
174400 2912N 09235W 8424 01426 //// +216 //// 329035 036 043 000 05
174430 2912N 09237W 8430 01423 //// +206 //// 333031 032 043 000 05
174500 2912N 09239W 8427 01430 //// +215 //// 341032 033 042 000 05
174530 2912N 09240W 8431 01429 //// +214 //// 346033 035 041 000 05
174600 2913N 09242W 8434 01428 //// +202 //// 348032 033 041 000 05
174630 2913N 09244W 8430 01430 //// +193 //// 348031 031 040 000 05
174700 2913N 09246W 8429 01436 //// +191 //// 350028 029 040 000 01
174730 2913N 09247W 8430 01438 //// +188 //// 356028 030 040 000 05
174800 2913N 09249W 8430 01439 //// +187 //// 360026 027 039 000 05
174830 2913N 09251W 8431 01440 //// +185 //// 003026 027 039 000 05
174900 2913N 09253W 8429 01441 //// +184 //// 008028 028 038 000 05
174930 2913N 09255W 8432 01442 //// +185 //// 008028 029 039 000 05
$$
;