ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NAM may be on to something!! Intersting. I know i laughed at it but it may be on to something here. We'll c

[PTrackerLA]

Afraid that in the NAM's scenario it would being to drift back northwards. It's actually quite similar to what the Euro showed a few days ago.

[Dave]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I guess all we can really do is watch it anyway There is a lot more energy wrapping into western LA than originally forecast. Like you said will see.

[jenmrk]

[quote="KFDM Meteorologist"]NAM may be on to something!! Intersting. I know i laughed at it but it may be on to something here. We'll c[/quote

Can you explain what that scenario might mean for the next few days.

[SunnyThoughts]

At my daughters house in Pensacola, our power is already out in Santa Rosa county..just to the east of P'cola. Sure hope they get it back on...been LOTS of rain so far today...but not too much wind to speak of yet. Our power goes out in a sprinkle though. sighhhhh Everybody stay high and dry...

[Turtle]

So far the GFS did a pretty good job I think. (At least yesterday's model - didn't check todays).

It showed some rain near deep East Texas from the outer spin things. Right now I'm dry, but I see some yellow/orange south of me. Hopefully I can get an inch out of this.

[windnrain]

Breezy drizzle in Baton Rouge the last 4 hours.

[Dave]

422
URNT15 KNHC 031800
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 43 20110903
175000 2913N 09257W 8431 01444 //// +186 //// 009026 027 039 000 05
175030 2913N 09258W 8429 01445 //// +186 //// 009025 026 038 002 05
175100 2913N 09300W 8427 01448 //// +186 //// 009026 027 040 000 05
175130 2913N 09302W 8430 01446 //// +184 //// 013026 027 039 000 05
175200 2914N 09304W 8429 01451 //// +184 //// 014028 029 038 001 05
175230 2914N 09306W 8429 01450 //// +183 //// 016028 029 040 000 05
175300 2914N 09308W 8430 01450 //// +186 //// 018028 028 040 000 05
175330 2914N 09309W 8430 01452 //// +182 //// 018026 027 040 000 05
175400 2914N 09311W 8428 01454 //// +180 //// 012024 025 039 000 01
175430 2914N 09313W 8427 01456 //// +178 //// 011026 027 040 000 05
175500 2914N 09315W 8429 01455 //// +176 //// 012026 027 039 000 05
175530 2914N 09317W 8430 01452 //// +172 //// 018029 030 040 000 05
175600 2914N 09319W 8427 01458 //// +166 //// 020032 033 040 000 05
175630 2914N 09321W 8430 01454 //// +171 //// 021033 035 039 001 05
175700 2914N 09323W 8425 01461 //// +171 //// 021031 032 039 000 05
175730 2915N 09324W 8426 01460 //// +170 //// 020034 035 039 000 05
175800 2915N 09326W 8421 01467 //// +164 //// 024039 040 040 000 05
175830 2915N 09328W 8293 01599 //// +160 //// 027038 039 040 000 05
175900 2916N 09330W 8160 01741 //// +149 //// 031040 040 042 000 05
175930 2916N 09332W 8114 01791 //// +154 //// 031039 040 043 002 01
$$
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 031756
XXAA 53188 99292 70925 08292 99990 27427 12514 00589 ///// /////
92602 24019 16012 85341 21038 16501 88999 77999
31313 09608 81740
61616 AF307 0513A LEE OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2925N09247W 1742 MBL WND 13514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
008 989843 WL150 12513 084 REL 2924N09247W 174038 SPG 2925N09247W
174209 =
XXBB 53188 99292 70925 08292 00990 27427 11895 22210 22850 21038
21212 00990 12514 11944 14016 22873 19002 33857 13003 44843 26002
31313 09608 81740
61616 AF307 0513A LEE OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 2925N09247W 1742 MBL WND 13514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
008 989843 WL150 12513 084 REL 2924N09247W 174038 SPG 2925N09247W
174209 =
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 031756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132011
A. 03/17:40:30Z
B. 29 deg 15 min N
092 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1343 m
D. 42 kt
E. 115 deg 44 nm
F. 205 deg 41 kt
G. 113 deg 57 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 18 C / 1523 m
J. 23 C / 1527 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0513A LEE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 41 KT SE QUAD 17:07:50Z
;

[Shoshana]

Are the areas in Louisiana that are in D4 drought getting rain? I hope so!

Lee appears to be behaving pretty much as forecast. It was expected to be stalled near the mid LA coast today. As that trof/front dig southward on Sunday, Lee will be picked up and accelerated off to the northeast. No significant wind inland, just offshore. Lots of rain, though. Wish we could see some rain...

Yesterday it was sunny, hot, and dry. Today it's sunny, hot, dry, and *breezy*. Harris Co. is under a fire weather watch. I never thought a tropical cyclone could induce a fire weather watch.

I've seen it get hotter (like last week with Irene and with past systems) but this one is all mixed up I think with that cold front coming down. A large part of Texas is under a Fire Weather Watch and here in Central and South Central, we're under a Red Flag Warning. The cold front isn't here yet so I guess the Red Flag Warning is because of Lee.

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 15

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 17:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 17:40:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°15'N 92°29'W (29.25N 92.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (116 km) to the SSW (202°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,343m (4,406ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 44 nautical miles (51 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 205° at 41kts (From the SSW at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the ESE (113°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:07:50Z

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 031757
97779 17560 71292 93308 15200 02033 18//9 /2385
RMK AF307 0513A LEE OB 16
LAST REPORT
;

AF307 - Mission Over.

[Dave]

Next Mission:

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 76
A. 04/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0713A CYCLONE
C. 03/23Z (1900 Hrs - 7 PM EDT/6 PM CDT)
D. 28.8N 92.6W
E. 03/2330Z TO 04/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Btw this mission will fly if needed...check the tcpod for any cancellations.

Thanks!

[Dave]

Unless something changes between now and then here's the last mission that's scheduled for Lee:

Next Mission:

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 76
A. 04/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0713A CYCLONE
C. 03/23Z (1900 Hrs - 7 PM EDT/6 PM CDT)
D. 28.8N 92.6W
E. 03/2330Z TO 04/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[lostsole]

Well - all I know is that we are getting a little (and I mean little) rain, here in SETX. Windy and light rain, is much better than HOT and HOTTER!!!

As of this morning we have a hurricane statement issued for Jefferson County until tomorrow morning - have no idea what that is all about. The statement just reminds us to be prepared for hurricane conditions in our area and if we have not comprised a plan to do so.

What does this have to do with Lee models????

So what is the NAM scenario and can someone post a link or images to the nam? Thanks

[gboudx]

Well - all I know is that we are getting a little (and I mean little) rain, here in SETX. Windy and light rain, is much better than HOT and HOTTER!!!

As of this morning we have a hurricane statement issued for Jefferson County until tomorrow morning - have no idea what that is all about. The statement just reminds us to be prepared for hurricane conditions in our area and if we have not comprised a plan to do so.

What does this have to do with Lee models????

So what is the NAM scenario and can someone post a link or images to the nam? Thanks

NAM was on page 31.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Well - all I know is that we are getting a little (and I mean little) rain, here in SETX. Windy and light rain, is much better than HOT and HOTTER!!!

As of this morning we have a hurricane statement issued for Jefferson County until tomorrow morning - have no idea what that is all about. The statement just reminds us to be prepared for hurricane conditions in our area and if we have not comprised a plan to do so.

What does this have to do with Lee models????

So what is the NAM scenario and can someone post a link or images to the nam? Thanks

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M