WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.2N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.6N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 30.1N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 32.3N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 35.6N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 39.0N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 42.9N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 150.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONSOLIDATED
WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
031053Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH UP TO 40-KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR AND
THE ASCAT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT PASS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST ARE
FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS LIMITING
OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN TRANSLATION SPEED AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
WHICH HAS RECENTLY STRENGTHENED. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 16W IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND
MAINTAINS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY NORTHWARD, DIRECTLY INTO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOWER TRACK AND IS MORE
IN AGREEMENT WITH JGSM.//
NNNN
40 knot tropical storm and forecast to strengthen to typhoon strength.
Next Name: Noru submitted by korea meaning- A roe deer; a kind animal.
A type of small deer living in the wild forest.
T3.0/3.0
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 995.1mb/ 34.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 2.4
![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc11/WPAC/16W.SIXTEEN/ir/geo/1km_bw/20110903.1501.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.16WSIXTEEN.40kts-993mb-222N-1503E.100pc.jpg)
TS 16W is so beautiful this early morning...