ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[kedekat_2]

Tornado WARNING for Vermilion parish till 5 pm

[BigA]

So what's up with the front? Is it still on time and going to pick up Lee as predicted?

well if you believe the NAM it wont dig as much before lifting out...

climo speaking it is still first of Sept and would have to be a good one to get this far down....just sayin....

But even if the front didn't reach Lee, why would he move rapidly southward rather than remain stationary? What synoptic set-up would cause that motion that the NAM is seeing? Nearly due south motion for TCs is exceedingly rare. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Isidore (2002) in the last decade when trying to remember storms that moved nearly due south at some pont.

[jabman98]

So what's up with the front? Is it still on time and going to pick up Lee as predicted?

well if you believe the NAM it wont dig as much before lifting out...

climo speaking it is still first of Sept and would have to be a good one to get this far down....just sayin....

Yeah, I'm surprised they're saying it's going to be here at all. Usually it's late September before we get any fronts down here, although we have had the occasional one in August and early September. It's not unheard of, just uncommon.

So far the NAM seems to have picked up on some stuff. We'll see, I guess. Yesterday someone was saying the front looked like it had slowed down from earlier projections.

[Raininfyr]

Ok, I went outside and looked at the clouds. Some very low, thin, gray looking clouds moving west. Then above those you can see white wispy clouds moving east. East? That seemed pretty odd to me??

I am in BTR.

[Houstonia]

http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/640x480/2xus_severe.gif

This graph, in my opinion, shows the worst of the situation for the southeast U.S.

You've got your flood warnings, your fire weather warnings, your high tides, your high winds... where's the plague and pestilence?

[Countrygirl911]

we are under a wind advisery we could see up to 40 to 50 mph winds

[LaBreeze]

Tornado WARNING for Vermilion parish till 5 pm

Just heard that as well - also for Acadia Parish. Thunderstorm near Morse capable of producing a tornado was the report I heard on tv.

[ROCK]

Galveston has sutained 30mph up to 40mph gusts....that gradient is tight...amazing to see 59N just shuts off the rain up north...

[LSU2001]

From the 4:00 pm NHC Discussion it seems that they expect the first trough to miss Lee and within 72 hours the second front should pick him up and move him NE.
Tim

Excerpt from Discussion:
A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
BLOCKING HIGH...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BYPASS LEE AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED ONCE AGAIN IN
WEAK STEERING FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO NUDGE LEE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
BEGIN TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EVOLVES INTO A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE ECMWF TRACK.

[bayoubebe]

we are under a wind advisery we could see up to 40 to 50 mph winds

It seems like MS and AL have really gotten pounded. EVery time I would view a radar, I would see heavy rains your way. We have had some on/off. Lots of tornado warnings last night and a couple today. Some branches down, nothing major. Sun just came out.

[setxsunshine]

according to the Weatherbug in Lumberton, TX (just north of Beaumont) we've had winds out of the NNW averaging 19mph with gusts to 34mph. And we've had 1.03" of rain...it's still raining too.

Rain and winds not as bad as LA or MS, so I don't mean to downplay what's happening there, but this is really nice here.

[stormywaves]

Okay I post very little but I am always on I love the conversations here and I am learning a lot. I am in downtown Houston winds blowing hard and it just got really dark.

[unconquered]

There are some pretty gusty winds here in Beaumont,TX, and it has been raining fairly steadily all day. It isn't heavy, by any means. There are a few scattered power outages.

[SoupBone]

Lee just loves the dry air. Thanks Texas! Seriously, without this dry air we would have had a Cat 1 by now I have no doubt.

[midnight8]

according to the Weatherbug in Lumberton, TX (just north of Beaumont) we've had winds out of the NNW averaging 19mph with gusts to 34mph. And we've had 1.03" of rain...it's still raining too.

Rain and winds not as bad as LA or MS, so I don't mean to downplay what's happening there, but this is really nice here.

I'm in Orange and I have a handheld wind gauge but I don't feel like getting soaked to use it right now. It only goes up to 35 mph anyway

[BigA]

Is there anyone here who is in the nasty-looking band north and west of the center. I would imagine there is some pretty windy, rainy conditions in there?

Also, should be interesting to see if land interaction tightens up the circulation like it does for some systems.

[stormy70]

We have had a lot of rain in South Alabama today. Right now it is a light drizzle but it does come and go. I just heard from a friend who lives on Fish River that their yard looks like a pool. I am trying to get out so i can go take pics of mobile bay if possible. Wind is blowing but not hard. And my cat and dog are hiding. If animals can sense something than my animals are sensing something bad. They never act like this.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So what's up with the front? Is it still on time and going to pick up Lee as predicted?

well if you believe the NAM it wont dig as much before lifting out...

climo speaking it is still first of Sept and would have to be a good one to get this far down....just sayin....

But even if the front didn't reach Lee, why would he move rapidly southward rather than remain stationary? What synoptic set-up would cause that motion that the NAM is seeing? Nearly due south motion for TCs is exceedingly rare. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Isidore (2002) in the last decade when trying to remember storms that moved nearly due south at some pont.

The NAM is showing high pressure rebulind north of Lee once the trough bypasses him. The HP then pushes down whatever is of Lee back into the gulf. Then sits there until the next trough comes down and picks him back up. Entertaining at least!

[sittingduck]

You all can thank me now - at about 2:30 I went to the beach here in Venice and had everyone around me blow west
Seriously though, is what the NAM depicted possible?

[BigA]

You all can thank me now - at about 2:30 I went to the beach here in Venice and had everyone around me blow west
Seriously though, is what the NAM depicted possible?

Possible, but unlikely. The high would have to build in quite strongly to shove Lee back over the gulf. And the NAM is the only model showing this. But, to be fair, the NAM is pretty good at dealing with synoptic conditions (such as positions and strengths of ridges), and it has handled Lee quite well.