ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

So any Houstonians getting rain? It looks like some banding over you guys.

[Nikki]

So any Houstonians getting rain? It looks like some banding over you guys.

I am not in Houston, but I am getting rain here on the coast, it is light, but I will take it! How is your weather? Everyone in Louisiana fairing ok right now?

[hurricanebuoy]

I have found that even though radar suggests that there is adequate rainfall in a given area, it is very misleading. For instance, here in Spring, radar indicates a decent amount of rainfall. My Davis weather station suggests we haeve had only 0.09" of rain in the past 3-4 hrs. Hardly a drought breaker as indicated somewhat by radar.

[SoupBone]

Last night was nasty and we've had 9 tornado warnings since last night but no confirmed touchdowns in my area. So far I'm grateful for that dry Texas air because I believe without a doubt Lee could have been a strong Cat 1 at this point. Just my humble opinion.

[jabman98]

Is that front really going to get all the way down and pick up Lee, or what's left of him? I just watched the news, which was delayed until after the football game and they said it was coming and we'd have cool weather and a north wind for the next week. I can hardly believe that in Houston in early September! But I could see the front in the bit of Texas panhandle they showed on the news, so I figure it must be strong and will probably pick up anything that's left of Lee and take it all out of here. Apparently very heavy rain is predicted for around Memphis and that area from the front plus Lee.

[tailgater]

This TS Lee lacks a lot of tropical charteristics so maybe the NAM might be on to something as it was forecasting near what the global models until today,

[baygirl_1]

Thought I'd share this from the Mobile NWS. It's an interesting discussion about the dry air Lee has taken in and how that's affecting our tornado chances and the heavy rain potential:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1003 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

.UPDATE...A NEW TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 7 AM AND
REPLACES THE PREVIOUS WATCH WITH NO CHANGE IN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS
THE TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASINGLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND T.S. LEE NOSES INTO OUR
REGION. THIS IS SHIFTING THE MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER RAIN BANDS
FURTHER EAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...MORE DISCRETE CELLS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND TRACKING NORTH TOWARD
THE COAST. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE
(300-450 M2/S2) WITH MLCAPES OF 500-750 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TORNADOES REMAIN A THREAT DURING THE NIGHT AS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
OF DISCRETE STORMS OFFSHORE IS EXPECTED WITH THE PEAK OF THE MARINE
DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAX.

WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE AREA...THE HEAVIER RAIN
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AS THE HEAVIEST BANDS SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED AND
STORM TOTALS OF 10-15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED AS WE
HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE LEE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.

It's just part of the discussion. For the complete discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
NOTE: As I typed this one of our local TV mets, Allan Sealls on WKRG, just said they received a message from NWS, "Tornado threat increasing."

[Annie Oakley]

This is for Louisiana, Alabama,and Mississippi

http://youtu.be/lzQ8GDBA8Is


Not meant to put you down. Quite the opposite

[stormy70]

Thank you Baygirl. I am across the bay from you and was wondering what is going on. I can hear thunder rumbling in the background but no rain at the moment.

[Houstonia]

So any Houstonians getting rain? It looks like some banding over you guys.

Wooh!! I live in southwest Houston, but we drove out to Bacliff this evening for dinner (Noah's Ark Bar and Grill). The weather out in Bacliff was WONDERFUL!!! Strong winds, and continuous rain.

We drove back to Houston via Highway 6, and it rained the entire way. Even in beautiful southwest Houston we got some rain evidently, although the ground already looks dry again. Actually though, it's still sprinkling outside.

[bexar]

ugliest tropical storm on satellite i've ever seen, looks more like a subtropical storm.

[bamajammer4eva]

Thank you Baygirl. I am across the bay from you and was wondering what is going on. I can hear thunder rumbling in the background but no rain at the moment.

Tornado warning was in effect for Mobile co and expires at 1215 but it has been replaced with a new one due to more tornadic storms coming ashore

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES SOUTH
OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF SAND ISLAND...MOVING NORTH
AT 35 MPH. THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL TORNADI THUNDERSTORM
FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND THE LEAD THUNDERSTORM THAT IS BEING
WARNED FOR.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TILLMANS CORNER... THEODORE... CODEN...
GRAND BAY... BELLE FONTAINE... BAYOU LA BATRE...

OR...THE WESTERN HALF OF MOBILE COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20.

[baygirl_1]

Thank you Baygirl. I am across the bay from you and was wondering what is going on. I can hear thunder rumbling in the background but no rain at the moment.

If you look at the radar you can see the storms lining up to come north towards us. Allan Seals and Jonathan Owens on WKRG are doing a great job of explaining what's happening. I'm afraid it's going to be a very long night. Stay safe over there in Fairhope!

[Annie Oakley]

ugliest tropical storm on satellite i've ever seen, looks more like a subtropical storm.

Which tropical storm was less ugly and when?

[BigA]

00Z HWRF run for lee send it to the south, an order of magnitude less than the NAM, but enough to the south that it stays over open water for longer.

Interesting to see that the more reputable models are at least hinting at some sort of southerly movement. Should be interesting to see what the rest of the 00Z models show.

[Jagno]

This is for Louisiana, Alabama,and Mississippi

http://youtu.be/lzQ8GDBA8Is


Not meant to put you down. Quite the opposite

Too funny but you guys are the ones "Cryin all the time". LOL

[baygirl_1]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1241 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

ALC097-040600-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0095.000000T0000Z-110904T0600Z/
MOBILE AL-
1241 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY...

AT 1234 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO JUST NORTH OF
I-10 IN GRAND BAY. A SECOND POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILE
SOUTH OF CODEN AND YET A THIRD POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. ALL STORMS WERE OVER MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OVER MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF MOBILE COUNTY.

Three possible tornadoes?! And it's really storming here now.

[Turtle]

00Z HWRF run for lee send it to the south, an order of magnitude less than the NAM, but enough to the south that it stays over open water for longer.

Interesting to see that the more reputable models are at least hinting at some sort of southerly movement. Should be interesting to see what the rest of the 00Z models show.

Interesting. Can you link to the model? I think if the 06z gfs heads south, than this may be something that the NHC should consider.

[Janie2006]

There's nothing quite like the sound of the wind whistling through the trees and warning sirens going off at the same time. Brilliant flashes of lightning and loud, short rumbles of thunder...I'd be very surprised if they were greater than 2 seconds in length. I think it's a good time to move to an interior space.

[fci]

There's nothing quite like the sound of the wind whistling through the trees and warning sirens going off at the same time.

or the smell of napalm in the morning......