ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

xironman where do you get that euro image from?

wundermap at wunderground, select model data on the right, has the Euro at 6hr intervals and QPF.

[xironman]

I have always liked Earl's track for this one, a bit north of it now but it could be close a the Hatteras approach.




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[fci]

Scary thing is how reputable euro is. The are the most superior, more-so than any other model, including GFS. This is like looking down the bottom of a barrel to me. So EURO is most SW and GFS is much more NE the more time passes, how does that happen? The more east one goes, the more west another goes. So strange. I am fearful that this really could be the outcome and time is really limited to get people OUT of there. Even if it is a 'just in case' it needs to be initiated now, last minute evacuations are so irresponsible. Just to get others thoughts, what is your opinion on the EURO 12z vs this one. For me it looks more west now, but I could be just seeing things.

Tough call.
When expectations remain that the storm will be well off short but some models say that it may not, that is just not enough evidence to warrant any actions beyond to pay attention.
If an evacuation were called based on a model this far out, people would lose jobs for the expense of making that call with limited justification short of "not taking a chance".
Given that watches and warnings give the time they do, it is just best to wait on any call to action.
Imagine if this call were made and the expected happens and Katia ends up well offshore. Would the people listen again or not?
No, I have to agree that nothing is done or suggested at this point. There is still ample time to take action when a consensus is built and true evidence is there.
Like I said, tough call......

[fci]

Latest spaghetti model, looks like a vase of flowers, that is how spread out these things are getting.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots

This plot does not have one model bringing the storm to the coast!
ALL are recurve or the opportunity to recurve is beyond the length of the model sequence.

[meriland23]

I just watched this on twc, very informative on this situation and its' divergence. You guys should take a minute out to watch this.

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/n ... opics-6584

[jhpigott]

Latest spaghetti model, looks like a vase of flowers, that is how spread out these things are getting.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots

I see NOGAPS and UKMET bring Katia very close to the NW Bahamas

[KWT]

Still enough in the set-up to need watching, looks like Katia is getting close to hurricane strength for the 3rd time looking at the data.

Certainly needs to be watched carefully, plenty of threat left for the east coast...

[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Katia 5AM

[Gustywind]

WTNT32 KNHC 040850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

...KATIA HEADING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 58.5W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[dwsqos2]

Time-Sensitive Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (AST) Pressure
6:49 am 29.02 in


Uh...look at the pressure observed at buoy 41044 and compare it with the advisory estimate. Keep in mind this observation was made with 10-minute winds in excess of 50 knots.

[ronjon]

Latest spaghetti model, looks like a vase of flowers, that is how spread out these things are getting.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/ ... el%20plots

I see NOGAPS and UKMET bring Katia very close to the NW Bahamas

Yeah current FHIP 3 km HWRF model has KAT make a beeline toward Daytona Beach. These models are currently the outliers but it all depends on what happens with Lee. If he weakens alot, goes either due north or due south then the SE US is in play.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011090400-katia12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

00z HWRF does the same thing as the 3 km model:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011090400-katia12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[southerngale]

-0.37 in ( Falling Rapidly )

[WeatherGuesser]

HURRICANE KATIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
700 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

AT 6 AM AST...1000 UTC...NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
69 MPH...111 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...133 KM/H...JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF KATIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
KATIA IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO A HURRICANE.

[chrisjslucia]

Back to Hurricane status as of 7 am:


Update:
TCUAT2

HURRICANE KATIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
700 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

AT 6 AM AST...1000 UTC...NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
69 MPH...111 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...133 KM/H...JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF KATIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
KATIA IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO A HURRICANE.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 58.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KATIA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
700 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

AT 6 AM AST...1000 UTC...NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
69 MPH...111 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...133 KM/H...JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF KATIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
KATIA IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO A HURRICANE.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 58.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[SouthDadeFish]

Time-Sensitive Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (AST) Pressure
6:49 am 29.02 in


Uh...look at the pressure observed at buoy 41044 and compare it with the advisory estimate. Keep in mind this observation was made with 10-minute winds in excess of 50 knots.

That pressure corresponds to a pressure of 982.7mb and therefore the pressure is even lower due to the fact that the buoy isn't in the center of the storm. She's looking better this morning:

[westwind]

strange that the NHC didn't drop the pressure with that update.
Katia is looking better this morning and has recently redeveloped an eye on IR imagery.

[dwsqos2]

At 1139Z, buoy 41044 reported 1-minute winds of 77.7 knots. At 1148Z the same buoy reported a pressure of 28.60 in. or 968.5 mb. Ten-minute winds were over hurricane force during the pressure ob.

It appears that the ADT estimates are closest to Katia's actual intensity.

[westwind]

At 1139Z, buoy 41044 reported 1-minute winds of 77.7 knots. At 1148Z the same buoy reported a pressure of 28.60 in. Hg, or 968. 5 mb. Ten-minute winds were over hurricane force during the pressure ob.

It appears that the ADT estimates are closest to Katia's actual intensity.

going to get updated twice in an hour it could even be a cat2.

[hipshot]

Time-Sensitive Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (AST) Pressure
6:49 am 29.02 in


Uh...look at the pressure observed at buoy 41044 and compare it with the advisory estimate. Keep in mind this observation was made with 10-minute winds in excess of 50 knots.

Wow, that bouy looks to be smack in the middle of the storm!!