ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2761 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:32 am

fci wrote:
Janie2006 wrote:There's nothing quite like the sound of the wind whistling through the trees and warning sirens going off at the same time. :roll:


or the smell of napalm in the morning......


Going surfing later? :wink:

Might as well joke a bit, it seems now is going to be the most dangerous time, which strikes me as a bit odd because a lot of convection has moved well east of me. It's those discrete, micro-supercells that most concern me right now.
0 likes   

smw1981
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 253
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:04 pm
Location: Alabamer

#2762 Postby smw1981 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:50 am

Still 3 active tornado warnings in Mobile, with new super cells just coming onshore. 2 confirmed tornadoes so far.. Another one is being talked about on local news (WPMI - Local 15) that looks really, really good on radar (but not confirmed yet).. Scary night in Mobile!
0 likes   

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2763 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:56 am

The tornado that caused the damage on Laurendine Road passed close to my location. I could *hear* it, but no way to see it. It coincided with the heavy lightning occuring around the same time. I've no idea of damage reports aside from the Irvington-Laurendine Rd area.
0 likes   

User avatar
mahmoo
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:52 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re:

#2764 Postby mahmoo » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:56 am

Annie Oakley wrote:This is for Louisiana, Alabama,and Mississippi

http://youtu.be/lzQ8GDBA8Is


Not meant to put you down. Quite the opposite

i don't "get it" Image?
Last edited by mahmoo on Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: ATL: LEE - Models

#2765 Postby southerngale » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:59 am

Turtle wrote:
BigA wrote:00Z HWRF run for lee send it to the south, an order of magnitude less than the NAM, but enough to the south that it stays over open water for longer.

Interesting to see that the more reputable models are at least hinting at some sort of southerly movement. Should be interesting to see what the rest of the 00Z models show.

Interesting. Can you link to the model? I think if the 06z gfs heads south, than this may be something that the NHC should consider. :wink:


Here's the 0z HWRF loop. It doesn't really send it back into the GOM, like a few of the other models are doing. It's just a little loop and then it heads NNE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011090400-lee13l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Btw, the 0z CMC and 0z EURO do not agree with the south movement back into the GOM.
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros

Jagno
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 10:40 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

Re: Re:

#2766 Postby Jagno » Sun Sep 04, 2011 1:59 am

mahmoo wrote:
Annie Oakley wrote:This is for Louisiana, Alabama,and Mississippi

http://youtu.be/lzQ8GDBA8Is


Not meant to put you down. Quite the opposite

i don't "get it" Image


She's just picking because we are getting all of the rain and they are in such desperate need of it hence "You're nothing but a hound dog". LOL
0 likes   

Countrygirl911
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2010 5:28 pm
Location: Meadville, Mississippi

Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2767 Postby Countrygirl911 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:00 am

the rain is coming down hard and the wind is howling looks like no sleep for me. we have two trees in our back yard that is leaning really bad towards our house which sits on the forestry land and with all this rain and wind i am afraid they might fall so i am having to watch them to make sure i can get to my kids before it happens i pray it does not but i am not taking any chances. i live in a trailer one would fall into my kitchen and living room area and cut me off from the side of the trailer my kids are on and one would go thru my girls room depending on what way it is blown i have all three of my kids sleeping in one room while i keep an eye out.
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: LEE - Models

#2768 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:03 am

southerngale wrote:
Turtle wrote:
BigA wrote:00Z HWRF run for lee send it to the south, an order of magnitude less than the NAM, but enough to the south that it stays over open water for longer.

Interesting to see that the more reputable models are at least hinting at some sort of southerly movement. Should be interesting to see what the rest of the 00Z models show.

Interesting. Can you link to the model? I think if the 06z gfs heads south, than this may be something that the NHC should consider. :wink:


Here's the 0z HWRF loop. It doesn't really send it back into the GOM, like a few of the other models are doing. It's just a little loop and then it heads NNE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011090400-lee13l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


Btw, the 0z CMC and 0z EURO do not agree with the south movement back into the GOM.


Hmmm one must wonder about the accuracy of that run anyway considering what it does with Katia on that loop :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Nikki
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 3:38 pm
Location: Santa Fe, TX (yes I typed that right TEXAS not New Mexico, I am about 20 miles from Galveston, TX)

Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2769 Postby Nikki » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:03 am

Countrygirl911 wrote:the rain is coming down hard and the wind is howling looks like no sleep for me. we have two trees in our back yard that is leaning really bad towards our house which sits on the forestry land and with all this rain and wind i am afraid they might fall so i am having to watch them to make sure i can get to my kids before it happens i pray it does not but i am not taking any chances. i live in a trailer one would fall into my kitchen and living room area and cut me off from the side of the trailer my kids are on and one would go thru my girls room depending on what way it is blown i have all three of my kids sleeping in one room while i keep an eye out.



I am so sorry to hear this!! My thoughts and prayers are with you and everyone going through such scary weather! Please keep us updated on how you are!
0 likes   
My name is Nicole and this is what I go by in Storm2k chat! Come chat with us! We have fun in there too!!

A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown

Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike

User avatar
mahmoo
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 98
Joined: Mon Jun 02, 2003 6:52 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: Re:

#2770 Postby mahmoo » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:05 am

Jagno wrote:
mahmoo wrote:
Annie Oakley wrote:This is for Louisiana, Alabama,and Mississippi

http://youtu.be/lzQ8GDBA8Is


Not meant to put you down. Quite the opposite

i don't "get it" Image


She's just picking because we are getting all of the rain and they are in such desperate need of it hence "You're nothing but a hound dog". LOL

Okay....thanks.
0 likes   

smw1981
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 253
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:04 pm
Location: Alabamer

#2771 Postby smw1981 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:12 am

Janie2006 - The other reports are from Fowl River and Dixon Corner...

Does anyone know where I can find the number of tornado warnings we have had for the day today? I'm sure there is a website that keeps up with them, but I have no idea where to find it. I am interested because we have been what seems like an on-going tornado warning since about 7pm (with a little break earlier), but definitely since about 11pm...

Also, can anyone answer this... If there is a tornado warning that includes 3 different cells that could be producing tornadoes, is that counted as 1 tornado warning, or 3 tornado warnings?
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: LEE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2772 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:13 am

Countrygirl911 wrote:the rain is coming down hard and the wind is howling looks like no sleep for me. we have two trees in our back yard that is leaning really bad towards our house which sits on the forestry land and with all this rain and wind i am afraid they might fall so i am having to watch them to make sure i can get to my kids before it happens i pray it does not but i am not taking any chances. i live in a trailer one would fall into my kitchen and living room area and cut me off from the side of the trailer my kids are on and one would go thru my girls room depending on what way it is blown i have all three of my kids sleeping in one room while i keep an eye out.


Best of luck, I know they usually don't evacuate mobile homes in tropical storms since they're weak and the tornadoes are often weak but with those trees, it's ok to use your own judgement if you feel unsafe.
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re:

#2773 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:18 am

smw1981 wrote:Janie2006 - The other reports are from Fowl River and Dixon Corner...

Does anyone know where I can find the number of tornado warnings we have had for the day today? I'm sure there is a website that keeps up with them, but I have no idea where to find it. I am interested because we have been what seems like an on-going tornado warning since about 7pm (with a little break earlier), but definitely since about 11pm...

Also, can anyone answer this... If there is a tornado warning that includes 3 different cells that could be producing tornadoes, is that counted as 1 tornado warning, or 3 tornado warnings?


This site goes back 24 hrs select Severe weather text then recent severe warnings

http://weather.cod.edu/text/index.php


About an hr ago there was a tornado warning entirely inside another tornado warning for mobile county, AL but the larger warning seemed to supersede the smaller one since it expired later. The larger one covered 3 cells in the same warning
0 likes   

smw1981
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 253
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:04 pm
Location: Alabamer

#2774 Postby smw1981 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:31 am

Thank you bamajammer! That shows we have had 7 tornado warnings today, but some of those have had more than 1 warned area with it. I can think of 2-3 times now where there were 2 or 3 warned areas within 1 warning, and the warning was for an hour or more because of the different areas. That number (7) does not include all of those, which is crazy. With those, I would guess that we have had at least 10 warnings tonight..crazy...

Another possible tornado just now near Semmes, but there is no warning for it? Local mets are talking about it on WPMI (NBC)..
0 likes   

User avatar
Sean in New Orleans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
Contact:

#2775 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:31 am

I am looking forward to the day when we can environmentally safely kill tropical systems before they threaten the US mainland or any mainland. And I think we'll be there within a few years. They are a necessity for the Earth's natural cycle, IMO, but, I see no real enivronmental issues with killing them in a safe way before they are a danger issue for any mainland.
0 likes   

smw1981
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 253
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:04 pm
Location: Alabamer

#2776 Postby smw1981 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:33 am

There is also no warning for George County, MS, but the "tornado product" that WPMI has is showing rotation right at 98...
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re:

#2777 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:42 am

smw1981 wrote:There is also no warning for George County, MS, but the "tornado product" that WPMI has is showing rotation right at 98...



A warning for George Co MS expired at 2 AM. Could be old data?

Edit
Also, I've seen warnings overlap. Sometimes another storm forms after the initial warning was issued but will affect the same areas
0 likes   

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

Re:

#2778 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Sep 04, 2011 2:47 am

smw1981 wrote:Thank you bamajammer! That shows we have had 7 tornado warnings today, but some of those have had more than 1 warned area with it. I can think of 2-3 times now where there were 2 or 3 warned areas within 1 warning, and the warning was for an hour or more because of the different areas. That number (7) does not include all of those, which is crazy. With those, I would guess that we have had at least 10 warnings tonight..crazy...

Another possible tornado just now near Semmes, but there is no warning for it? Local mets are talking about it on WPMI (NBC)..


There was indeed a tornado warning issued on those cell(s). The danger has bypassed Semmes, but a warning continues to be in effect until 3 a.m. local time for that storm, as it continues to show rotation.
0 likes   

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: Re:

#2779 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:02 am

Janie2006 wrote:
smw1981 wrote:Thank you bamajammer! That shows we have had 7 tornado warnings today, but some of those have had more than 1 warned area with it. I can think of 2-3 times now where there were 2 or 3 warned areas within 1 warning, and the warning was for an hour or more because of the different areas. That number (7) does not include all of those, which is crazy. With those, I would guess that we have had at least 10 warnings tonight..crazy...

Another possible tornado just now near Semmes, but there is no warning for it? Local mets are talking about it on WPMI (NBC)..


There was indeed a tornado warning issued on those cell(s). The danger has bypassed Semmes, but a warning continues to be in effect until 3 a.m. local time for that storm, as it continues to show rotation.


Yeah Semmes was also in the same warning Georges Co was in (Mobile and Georges co) till 2am. I am not sure of the timeliness of warnings on the college of Du-page site.

If you want more current warnings that you can select by NWS office and pop up in a chat format in real-time with sound alerts(Sounds never work for me) Try

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/severe.phtml

Click webiembot monitor and you will see an available rooms panel on your left. Enter the name of the city the NWS office you want is in.

This has all warnings, watches, statements and discussions issued by the office you select as they are issued.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: ATL: LEE - Models

#2780 Postby southerngale » Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:13 am

The NAM is still insisting that Lee moves south into the GOM.

06z NAM at 36 hours:

Image





06z NAM at 72 hours

Image


Loop
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests