ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Countrygirl911]

rain still coming down and the wind is still gusting i figured that with us being so far inland about 2 to 2 1/2 hrs from NOLA we really did not have to worry to much guess i was wrong hopefully soon it will die down. been raining hard non stop for nearly 4 hrs. saturday we had rain but is was on and off and not that heavy. out mets here say we are going to have heavy rain and wind till late monday night into tuesday morning then just light rain afterwords. Lee is causing alot of problems for people all this rain in the same places for hrs and for days at a time and the winds i pray that all who are being affected by lee will stay safe and sound.

[Countrygirl911]

hazardous outlook for my area

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

LAZ023>026-MSZ053>055-059>066-072>074-042015-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
302 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS RAIN BANDS
PIVOT INTO THE AREA AROUND TROPICAL STORM LEE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL STORM LEE SLOWLY LIFTS
INTO THE AREA. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLY FROM 40 TO 45 MPH.

THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER
RAIN BANDS THAT WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LEE. WE MAY
ALSO SEE A RISK OF TORNADOES BETWEEN RAIN BANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
AFTERNOON HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY IN THOSE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLY FROM 40 TO
45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM LEE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION.

THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY IN STRONGER RAIN BANDS THAT PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA.

[bamajammer4eva]

Just saw a tornado warning issued but quickly canceled along my latitude though over 200 mi away. Been watching how far north the warnings are being issued. SPC has a slight risk for tornadoes here Sunday but I'm hoping we luck out.

LIX issues Tornado Warning for Walthall [MS] till 4:00 AM CDT ...* AT 319 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DEXTER...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRANKLINTON...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH

Hoping the tornado threat stays suppressed to the coast though ideally it wouldn't exist at all.

[Janie2006]

Lee continues to weaken....I'll shed no tears for him.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...CENTER OF LEE ON THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 92.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[Janie2006]

TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE IS
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. LEE
WILL BE MOVING OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN OF EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER
WATER. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY
THAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. BY 48 HOURS OR
SOONER...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT TIME. BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM
THOSE SAME GLOBAL MODELS...DISSIPATION IS LIKELY AFTER 96 HOURS.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT OR ABOUT 360/2. LEE IS IN A
COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...I.E. WITHIN VERY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS...AT THIS TIME. A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND VERY
SIMILAR THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS FORECAST.

SINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE
CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
CENTER OF LEE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 29.6N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 30.0N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 30.3N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 30.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 32.0N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0600Z 34.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0600Z 37.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[bamajammer4eva]

Huh? Never seen our entire HWO issued in bullet-like format

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-050900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 /400 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM LEE SLOWLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...
...TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...LEE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...DANGEROUS BOATING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH WAVES...SURF...AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE...
...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...
...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSE LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT MONDAY...
...TIDES APPROACHING 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG APALACHEE BAY
MONDAY NIGHT NEAR HIGH TIDE...
...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID WEEK AS COLD FRONT AND REMNANTS OF
LESS MOVE EAST OF AREA...


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LOCALIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY IF AND WHERE
TORNADO WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

[Nederlander]

Don't be a sucker and put all your faith in the NAM. System should start to pull out and head NNE over the next 24 hours as the trough moves by. On a side note, look at all the dry air surrounding the core. This will make it very difficult for Lee to recover in any capacity. Texas dealt a blow to Lee with that ULL and dry air. Worst looking TS I've seen in a while..


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should

not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster
and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological
data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution
or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[smw1981]

I hear the tornado sirens going off again in Mobile right now..no idea what its for because I'm sitting outside!

Edit: They must have tested them or something because I don't see anything on our local station about it... weird. That is the very first time I have ever heard the sirens (and I have lived here almost 4 years)..

[southerngale]

Oh, I put no faith in the NAM. It's not a good tropical model. I only posted it because it goes against the grain, and others were asking about it earlier. Also, I am anxious to see at what point it gives up this idea. It has to be soon.

[bamajammer4eva]

You don't see this everyday from a tropical cyclone! Severe thunderstorm warning instead of tornado warning.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
511 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT

* AT 507 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF VILLA TASSO...OR
6 MILES NORTH OF DESTIN AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CHOCTAW BEACH...MOSSY HEAD...OAKWOOD HILLS...NEW HOME...FOX HILL...
ALPINE HEIGHTS...PLEASANT RIDGE...LIBERTY...CLUSTER SPRINGS...SAND
HILL...DE FUNIAK SPRING AIRPORT...CANEY CREEK AND DE FUNIAK SPRINGS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

[KWT]

Yep Lee weakens but really the wind was never likely to be the main story with Lee, it was always going to be the very high totals of rain.

[southerngale]

It looks like it's starting to drift eastward now.

[Nederlander]

Oh, I put no faith in the NAM. It's not a good tropical model. I only posted it because it goes against the grain, and others were asking about it earlier. Also, I am anxious to see at what point it gives up this idea. It has to be soon.

Oh I know Gale, that wasn't directed at you. I was just pointing that out for maybe some newer people or lurkers who aren't familiar with the models and which ones fair the best usually. NAM isn't always wrong but historically doesn't match up with models such as the Euro and Gfs.. Not saying the NAM isn't possible, just not plausible. By looking at satellite loop, looks like its moved east or maybe slightly ese. Probably just meandering around until steering picks up later today..

[bamajammer4eva]

Yep Lee weakens but really the wind was never likely to be the main story with Lee, it was always going to be the very high totals of rain.

I never cared about the rain and never cared about the winds, I am inland, question is, does this weakening mean fewer tornadoes? I'm getting tired of watching and it hasn't even got to me yet but the warnings are getting closer.

Edit No tornado watch for me till at least 4 so off to sleep nite folks

[southerngale]

Tropical Storm Lee to blame for 1 death on Galveston Beach

Read more: http://www.kfdm.com/articles/galveston-44591-offshore-beach.html#ixzz1WymabAR7

[gone2beach]

"Just drop off the key, Lee
And get yourself free...."


24 hr rain total, 4.03

[stormreader]

It looks like it's starting to drift eastward now.


http://i.imgur.com/jbZtf.gif

Gale, thats an interesting loop, first, because its shows that the center is at least temporarily completely offshore (not on the coast) but more importantly you can see thunderstorm activity wrapping in a much smaller circle around the center than was apparent earlier. I would bet that with Lee's pretty darn low pressure readings that those thunderstorms are whipping up some pretty good winds. If this storm moves back up over La. today, some of the folks might be surprised that its gotten a little more windy than they thought.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
700 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...CENTER OF LEE JUST INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED OVER VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

RECENT REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND COASTAL MONITORING STATIONS
INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER
LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

...CENTER OF LEE JUST INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[nashrobertsx]

stormreader... great radar shot.. where is that from? lch radar? when i get on lch radar, i find the eye over land.. looking at what you posted (which looks great) looks like it is skirting the coast... i am miffed that the same radar is showing two different eye locations...link? help?