ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[jasons2k]

This may explain why the NAM was off - a bad initialization. This is from NWS Asheveille, NC:

CONDITIONS WILL START GOING DOWNHILL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST
OFF...THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS THROWN ON THE SCRAP HEAP AS
INITIALIZATION ERRORS HAVE EVIDENTLY TRICKED IT INTO A WACKY
SOLUTION WHERE T.S. LEE MOVES SOUTH OUT OVER THE WRN GULF. THUS...
THE NEW FCST IS LARGELY BASED ON THE 00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF WHICH ARE
MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF LEE. THAT BEING
SAID...THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FCST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND MOISTENING S TO SE
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...THEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE GFS MAINTAINS CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT A DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS
AND MIDWEST WOULD GRADUALLY TAP INTO THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
LEE AND PULL IT NE OVER NE GEORGIA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. IF WE
BLEND THE NEW GFS AND THE 21Z SREF...THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS
IN EARNEST AFTER 00Z...AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIP SHOULD BE SPREADING
SW TO NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SO...AFTER A MOSTLY QUIET MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...THE PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP FROM THE SW. WILL BRING
THE POP UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY LATE IN THE DAY UP THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND NC MTNS AND HOLD OFF WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC. THINGS CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE TO THE POINT WHERE A CATEGORICAL POP IS WARRANTED OVER
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT INITIALLY. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND STREAM
FLOWS ARE SUCH THAT NO FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER
12Z MONDAY. PREFER TO LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE...
HOPEFULLY TO GET THE NAM BACK ON BOARD...BEFORE WE ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR ALL OR PART OF THE FCST AREA.

[Nederlander]

@wxman Will it stay like this (cool and dry) is this a pattern that has set in? It is not usually like this until mid October.

I'm not gonna speak for wxman because he's a pro and I'm clearly not, but I wouldn't count on it.. We may start seeing a "cooler" trend, but I still expect some 90+ days over the next few weeks.. I'd be glad if we just stayed below 3 digits..


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[wxman57]

@wxman Will it stay like this (cool and dry) is this a pattern that has set in? It is not usually like this until mid October.

For this week, anyway. But we may have seen our last 100 degree day for 2011.

[Hogweed]

NAM gives up on Lee in the Gulf.

NAM 12Z+72



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[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...LEE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 91.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. LEE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...
445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...
72 KM/H AND A GUST TO 49 MPH...79 KM/H. NUMEROUS OFFSHORE OIL RIGS
ALSO CONTINUE TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 4 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH
OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND COASTAL MONITORING STATIONS
INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER
LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE
FINALLY MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING
AROUND 11Z ABOUT 10 NMI SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. RECENT DOPPLER
RADAR DATA INDICATE BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE FORMED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE
CONTAINED DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 65-72 KT FROM 8000-12000 FT IN
35-45 DBZ ECHOES...WITH MEAN VALUES OF AT LEAST 60 KT. ALTHOUGH
THESE DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES WOULD TYPICALLY EQUATE TO SURFACE
WINDS OF 50-55 KT...THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THESE NEW CONVECTIVE
BANDS SUGGESTS THAT ANY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE VERY
TRANSIENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED
ON WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42040...BUT THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL IN
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT FROM THE
STANDARD 50-KT GUST VALUE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER
DOPPLER VELOCITIES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

LEE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 040/03 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. LEE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER THAT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GRADUALLY LIFT LEE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...
BUT STILL AT LESS THAN 10 KT. BY 48 HOURS...LEE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A FAIRLY BRISK FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND
BECOME A LARGE SLOW-MOVING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT THE FORWARD SPEED WAS DECREASED
AFTER 48 HOURS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS...
TVCN AND TVCA.

LEE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE RAIN-SATURATED FLAT TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER WATER. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD ALSO
GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER LAND AND NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...WHICH COULD ADD SOME ENERGY TO THE CYCLONE. AS A
RESULT...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY
THAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE FOR INLAND TROPICAL
CYCLONES.

SINCE HEAVY RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE OCCURRING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT
TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF LEE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM LEE WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 29.9N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 30.1N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 30.6N 90.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 31.4N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 32.6N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1200Z 34.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1200Z 36.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

...LEE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 91.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[Portastorm]

And for those non-Texans reading, let's me clear ... a very, very small sliver of the state got some rain. The overwhelming majority of us got nothing. As usual.

And yes ... I would like some smoked gouda with my whine.

[Will504]

What will be really interesting is to see if the west side moisture wraps all around the core and we see some re-intensification/organization. Lee really has never had west side banding, due to dry air over Texas filtering in. It appears that has substantially relaxed along with the shear. If Lee moves far away offshore and the new found west side banding wraps all the way around, things could get interesting.

Looking at the water vapor loop for the last several days no moisture was making it into Texas or to the SW of the circulation. While it is still sucking in dry air, Lee has made a major push of moisture to the west and now driving deep to the southwest over the last 4-5 hours as you can see on the wv loop. As the storm drifts around near or off the coast I wonder if it continues to push moist air up against that hot dry air to the south west, will it be able to turn off the tap of dry air and get the water flowing again, and for the first time wrapping around the center....

In my uneducated opinion I think the convection on the SW side will wrap around over night and explode when it hits the coast, back moving north again over SELA.

wow novice me was right... it did pinch off the dry air and that convection on the SW side did wrap around. Looks like Lee moved over land though, so no straightening but if he was still over water right now I bet he would get stronger now that the dry air is not being sucked into the center anymore.

[thetraveler]

I watched the bands coming closer and closer to deep east Texas yesterday. I kept hoping and hoping for rain and it finally started falling around 1PM. It rained until last night around 10PM and we ended up with 1.5 inches over that 9 hours. It looks like we will get one more small pass of rain and then it is suppose to cool off and be very pleasent here for the rest of the week.

[AdamFirst]

Do we have any rainfall total numbers out yet? Weather Channel was saying around 20 inches maximum on Friday night...based on Lee's radar presentation I imagine that may have been a bit high.

[Raininfyr]

In a real nice feeder for the last 10 minutes or so. Heavy rain, winds are gusty, maybe 30 mph. You can hear the wind coming since I am surrounded by trees. Rain blowing sideways and small twigs and leaves tumbling. The NWS said we could get 4 more inches on top of the 6 we have already received. Ready for the rain to go so we can enjoy at least some of our holiday week end.

[BigB0882]

Definitely feeling more like a storm in Baton Rouge today. Doesn't look like much is left on radar, though, although I don't know how fast it is moving now.

[unconquered]

No rain or wind here in Beaumont, TX, today. It is cloudy and the forecast calls for a 60% chance, so we will see. It was nice to have a rainy day for once.

[Will504]

Do we have any rainfall total numbers out yet? Weather Channel was saying around 20 inches maximum on Friday night...based on Lee's radar presentation I imagine that may have been a bit high.

Looking at the radar on wwltv.com 's website showing rainfall totals over SELA over the last couple days, on the southshore it varried from 5 - 10 inches. North of the lake and the Miss Gulf Coast looks like 3 - 8 inches. I don't think many, if any places (over land) had over 10 inches of rain from this storm.

Definitely feeling more like a storm in Baton Rouge today. Doesn't look like much is left on radar, though, although I don't know how fast it is moving now.

looks like the center will be moving right over BR later today, you might not get much rain but you should have some gusty winds.

[chrisnnavarre]

Oh, I put no faith in the NAM. It's not a good tropical model. I only posted it because it goes against the grain, and others were asking about it earlier. Also, I am anxious to see at what point it gives up this idea. It has to be soon.

Oh I know Gale, that wasn't directed at you. I was just pointing that out for maybe some newer people or lurkers who aren't familiar with the models and which ones fair the best usually. NAM isn't always wrong but historically doesn't match up with models such as the Euro and Gfs.. Not saying the NAM isn't possible, just not plausible. By looking at satellite loop, looks like its moved east or maybe slightly ese. Probably just meandering around until steering picks up later today..

He was east for ESE a few hours ago, now he looks to be NW of the NHC projected path. Maybe he's looping around again. You can clearly see it on visible. As a matter of fact, he looks better now over land then he did twelve hours ago when he was sucking in dusty dry air from Texas. Banding features look extremely good on the western side of the storm. Everyone better hope the steering environment predicted pans out or this guy is going to continue to bring misery to the Gulf Coast for an extended period of time. We're getting soaked on the Florida Panhandle here, and any significant follow up storm (with any wind involved) is going to knock down every tree from Pensacola to Tallahassee.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 3-hr movement toward 010 degrees (north) at 10 kts. Quite a northward jump. Let's hope the more rapid movement continues so we can be done with Lee soon.

[Kennethb]

Definitely feeling more like a storm in Baton Rouge today. Doesn't look like much is left on radar, though, although I don't know how fast it is moving now.

Look to be moving or bumping NNE as indicated by wxman57, perhaps passing just to the west of Baton Rouge during the afternoon.

Winds here have shifted from E to SE.

So far 8.1 inches since Friday here in South Baton Rouge.

[ronjon]

LOL, Lee looks better on SAT over land then he did over water.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20110904&endTime=-1&duration=4

[Countrygirl911]

it is still raining but at least the wind is not as bad. we are under a wind advisery and a tornado watch till tomorow

[psyclone]

i'm afraid that lee's moisture plume may shift east and wash out labor day over parts of peninsular florida. so far it's been pretty quiet over my region today...certainly the overcast conditions are keeping surface temps and instability in check. i better get my beach time in today...