ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[storm4u]

Euro is also much faster at 12z something to think about



][/quote]if you think thats scary, look at what the 0z had. And 12z ukmet should have everyone breathing a sigh of relief.[/quote]

[hurricaneCW]

But don't forget how quickly the models flopped from one set of runs to the other, clearly they are having difficulty diagnosing the upper air patterns and what will happen with the remnants of Lee and the closed low over the east coast.

[Extratropical94]

04/1745 UTC 22.3N 59.6W T5.0/5.0 KATIA -- Atlantic

90 knots

Since the last buoy report went well over Dvorak, I would then go 95 kt (pressure 954mb) after seeing that.

Yup, sometimes Dvorak estimates aren't the most accurate and reliable sources to determine the intensity of a developing cyclone.

[cpdaman]

yes but the euro moving toward the gfs ....a bit faster and more East....

at hr 96 difference i see between yesterday 12z and today 12z is yesterday there was HP bridging brom michiga/canada over to NW atlantic.

today there is a gap in the canadian and NW atlantic HP....just E of new england....

[maxintensity]

yes but the euro moving toward the gfs ....a bit faster and more East....

at hr 96 difference i see between yesterday 12z and today 12z is yesterday there was HP bridging brom michiga/canada over to NW atlantic.

today there is a gap in the canadian and NW atlantic HP....just E of new england....

yep moving toward gfs. With euro on board now we should see the NHC get more aggressive with the NE turn in its track updates.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 12, 2011090418, , BEST, 0, 223N, 597W, 90, 965, HU,

[rainstorm]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
US model looks too far north with Katia.. and not handling late week pattern correctly. NC outer banks cant take another storm

[Meteorcane]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
US model looks too far north with Katia.. and not handling late week pattern correctly. NC outer banks cant take another storm

Well for better or for worse (probably worse in this situation) he is sticking to his guns.

[pricetag56]

is their shear still impacting this

[bobbisboy]

Anyone notice that Lee isn't following the NCH forecast track by a WIDE bit? comments?

A different track would certainly change the pattern for Katia, no?

i mean this looks WAY off..... thoughts?

[cpdaman]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
US model looks too far north with Katia.. and not handling late week pattern correctly. NC outer banks cant take another storm

Well for better or for worse (probably worse in this situation) he is sticking to his guns.

well i mean last nite 0z euro ensembles were pretty dang close to NW bahamas by about 150-200 miles for fri pm

now today the OP shifted NE and faster and i bet the ensembles followed suit.

well see how fast the trough approaching the NE NOW gets OUT and wether the HP can bridge across from canada to NW atlantic

[bobbisboy]

All of the models have the initial track of Lee wrong as well.... look at the motion
and compare to the models.. they aren't handling Lee well as it relates to Katia
and that imo is critical thoughts?

[cpdaman]

don't think it matters much... i mean euro still is consistent and will prob be right with lee morphing into closed low and hanging back in miss/ohio valley.

what seems to matter more is HOW fast the NE trough (approaching NEW england Now) gets out and ESP. / HOW long High pressure can bridge the gap between ontatrio and NW atlantic.

YESTERDAY 12z euro and LAST nite's showed this high bridging gap from tue midnite 'ish thru late fri nite (thus long westerly/wnw motion) TODAYS 12z euro showed this bridging HP from tue nite to wed midnite only (less w/wnw motion)

[xironman]

i wouldnt say that yet hr 96 is scary for the carolinas

recurve syndrome in effect this aft

euro out thru 72 hrs...noticeable more NW (by about 150 miles on day 2) and ditto day 3.

if you think thats scary, look at what the 0z had. And 12z ukmet should have everyone breathing a sigh of relief.

Through 120 hours ecmwf is headed out to sea.

The Euro has been deadly this year inside of 120, and if you look at the 6hr intervals that is as close as as the storm gets. Starting to feel a lot better about this one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cpdaman]

well tonite's euro will be huge for NC folk IMO because if it shows the bridging high (which develops late tues) breaking down again by thurs am...(weakeness opening up over east coas) then this consistency will increase confidence in a MISS.

some of the best mets i listen to are saying the pattern on the euro and the gfs GREATLY supports a sharp recurve....these are people i have listened to for years with great track records. I think tonite's 0z euro will be a carbon copy of today's and that a consensus will build.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone notice that Lee isn't following the NCH forecast track by a WIDE bit? comments?

A different track would certainly change the pattern for Katia, no?

i mean this looks WAY off..... thoughts?

Katia is following right along the NHC forecast points. Turn them on in this loop and you will see this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[bobbisboy]

Was talking about LEE's track, NOT Katia's and how that MIGHT impact
Katia's track down the road. LEE's track isn't even close. He's off in
another direction

[SouthDadeFish]

Was talking about LEE's track, NOT Katia's and how that MIGHT impact
Katia's track down the road. LEE's track isn't even close. He's off in
another direction

Oh sorry, I didn't read closely enough, I just assumed you were talking about Katia since this is the Katia thread. Lee does seem to be moving NW of the forecast points, but I still think there will be a large enough weakness in the ridge to allow Katia to recurve. Even though he is moving west of the points, he is moving North, and therefore should still get picked up by the trough. This is just my opinion though and not a professional forecast.

[Jevo]

Anyone notice that Lee isn't following the NCH forecast track by a WIDE bit? comments?

A different track would certainly change the pattern for Katia, no?

i mean this looks WAY off..... thoughts?

Katia is following right along the NHC forecast points. Turn them on in this loop and you will see this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

After 8 years here I realize that storms ALWAYS follow along the NHC's forecasted path... because they update it once every 6 hours

[bobbisboy]

Take a look at LEE then, cuz he's busting the 6 hour point. I mention it here because the
affect that track may ultimately have on the track of Katia.