ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Off topic and for those who are interrested...
Meteo-France Guadeloupe reported (due to Katia) yesterday at 6PM average waves of 4meters 60 with a higher wave reaching 7meters 90 .

[cpdaman]

Off topic and for those who are interrested...
Meteo-France Guadeloupe reported (due to Katia) yesterday at 6PM average waves of 4meters 60 with a higher wave reaching 7meters 90 .

i mean 4 meters is like 13 feet and 7 meters is like 24 feet. this is standard for cat 2 storms. dangerous yes but standard not that you were saying anything different.

[cpdaman]

Anyone notice that Lee isn't following the NCH forecast track by a WIDE bit? comments?

A different track would certainly change the pattern for Katia, no?

i mean this looks WAY off..... thoughts?

Katia is following right along the NHC forecast points. Turn them on in this loop and you will see this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

After 8 years here I realize that storms ALWAYS follow along the NHC's forecasted path... because they update it once every 6 hours

GREAT point!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

WHILE KATIA HAS HAD A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE INFRARED REPRESENTATION OF THE EYE HAS COME AND GONE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC
WERE A UNANIMOUS T5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KATIA HAS TURNED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
310/10 KT. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST CYCLES...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS
PACKAGE. FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND AGREES ON MAINTAINING KATIA ON A HEADING OF 310 DEGREES WITH
SOME DECELERATION. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS THERE WAS EARLIER. ACTUALLY...THE GFS...ECWMF...AND
UKMET MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND HAVE THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WITHIN 200 N MI OF EACH OTHER BY DAY 5. THIS CONFIGURATION
SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS CYCLE.

THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY APPARENT NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR THIS ARE
RELATIVELY WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND LOWER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH...ESPECIALLY FROM DAYS
3 THROUGH 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF
THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE VALUES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE
MODELS...AND INDICATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. EVEN IF KATIA DOES
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 22.7N 60.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 23.7N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 25.0N 63.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 26.1N 64.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 27.1N 66.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 31.5N 71.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

...THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

[Hogweed]

NAM 18Z+84



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Saved image.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looks like NHC has bought into the right hook.

[cpdaman]

still some spread in the euro ensembles that would indicate a slow more sw track is an option

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PNA120.gif

but over all a pretty large shift from 0z ens. for the fri 12z period...about 250 miles NNE it would seem

[fci]

So when all is said and done and the angst of the models, people harassing those who said "fish" and JB talking CONUS; it looks like climatology wins out and a recurving "fish".
Look back to page 1.
Yes, yes, yes...keep vigilance until it is for sure... But it looks good for a typical recurve.

[SouthernBreeze]

still some spread in the euro ensembles that would indicate a slow more sw track is an option

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PNA120.gif

remote linking doesn't work from there - but you can copy & paste URL into a new browser window or tab to view

[sponger]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047

Swell from Katia on its way to the East Coast!

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though this will more than likely curve away from the US, still kinda scary seeing the outer part of the cone now touching the outer banks.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[hurricaneCW]

So when all is said and done and the angst of the models, people harassing those who said "fish" and JB talking CONUS; it looks like climatology wins out and a recurving "fish".
Look back to page 1.
Yes, yes, yes...keep vigilance until it is for sure... But it looks good for a typical recurve.

It's not a typical recurve, a typical recurve is usually no further west than 60-65W, especially considering how far north Katia already is and how far west it's still going to come in early September is far from typical. And this "premature fish" is still expected to be damaging when it comes to rip currents, beach erosion, and high surf.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view of last visible image of the day.

[Maritimer71]

When looking at the ensemble models, it pretty much shows a ninety degree turn away from the US...

Can that happen? Has it ever happened like that before?

I would love for it to do that... but what are the odds? Really?

[CrazyC83]

How is the setup here different from Irene? That big ridge still seems to be there...

[UpTheCreek]

Well, I'm outta the cone by about 20 miles. Time to winterize my generator, it's had a workout! On second thought, maybe I'll wait on that a few weeks.

[xironman]

The trough coming in is more pronounced and the westerlies are starting to rock look at the 72 hr NAM @ 500 mb (just using the NAM to upset 57), with those winds where would you go if you were a hurricane? Irene always had a nose peaking towards NC.



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[meriland23]

Whats up guys, whats the new scoop? I see she not only went to a cat one, but a cat two! WOW. What is her long range track looking like?