ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

clfenwi · #2601 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:56 am

One recon mission scheduled for Tuesday along with a G-IV research flight.

NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 05 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-097
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 06/17Z
B. AFXXX 0112A KATIA
C. 06/1415Z
D. 27.5N 66.5W
E. 06/1615Z-06/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL 07/17Z FIX
3. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSIONS
FOR HURRICANE KATIA TAKING OFF 06/11Z AND 07/11Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
VJH

crimi481 · #2602 Postby **crimi481** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:58 am

Katia missing next forecast point - about 50 miles south of it?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

westwind · #2603 Postby **westwind** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:59 am

best looking hurricane in the atlantic by a long way this year and the only one to have maintained an eye for more than a couple of hours. How strong do you guys think it will get? cat 5?

#2604 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:01 am

Does anyone know when a Recon mission is scheduled for Katia? I know she is not threatnening land for the time being, but wondering when NHC will have Recon fly in to her to investigate.

westwind · #2605 Postby **westwind** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:02 am

northjaxpro wrote:Does anyone know when a Recon mission is scheduled for Katia? I know she is not threatnening land for the time being, but wondering when NHC will have Recon fly in to her to investigate.

possible mission at 17z tomorrow check the recon thread.

#2606 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:03 am

The 965mb pressure seems too low IMO given its size and the buoy data yesterday. I would guess it is closer to 950mb.

SouthernBreeze · #2607 Postby **SouthernBreeze** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:04 am

OuterBanker wrote:Thank God that Katia will be a fish. She will probably kick up some waves as she passes well off shore and maybe cause some beach erosion. But she will be far enough away that we probably won't even see the clouds from her. I really don't think anyone on the east coast could take a second strike right now. And with any luck, it will be the last threat of this year. Lee's rains do concern me, hopefully the areas that received excessive rains from Irene will not see much from Lee.

Maybe more on the way, with 95L, who knows?

Time_Zone · #2608 Postby **Time_Zone** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:12 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The 965mb pressure seems too low IMO given its size and the buoy data yesterday. I would guess it is closer to 950mb.

Agreed, I wouldnt be surprised if Katia was a strong category 3 right now given its presentation it seems to be well on its way to becoming stronger then forcasted.

#2609 Postby **O Town** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:21 am

Yep, it looks to be a bit south of forecast. Wobble?

LINK

bobbisboy · #2610 Postby **bobbisboy** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:22 am

crimi481 wrote:Katia missing next forecast point - about 50 miles south of it?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Just so, and without some stair-stepping soon she'll miss the next point as well..

wobble or slightly more southerly track... we'll see

#2611 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:24 am

Wow Katia looks amazing this morning. I had a feeling this one was going to be a mammoth system and sure is living up to these expectations.

As many have said, fortunately she looks to be a fish.

#2612 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:27 am

Katia is really going to town. I understand why the NHC said she was a cat 2 at 11 AM because the deep convection around the eye was narrow and didn't fully circle it. However, that has now changed:

In my opinion she is now a major hurricane and if this trend continues I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory issued calling her such. This is not a professional forecast.

Battlebrick · #2613 Postby **Battlebrick** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:28 am

red CDO around the eye now.. nice.

#2614 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:34 am

so glad we still don't have recon scheduled for another 24 hours...#nothingtoseehere

Cranica · #2615 Postby **Cranica** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:38 am

She looks a lot like Isabel, check out the low clouds in the eye.

#2616 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:44 am

Impressive mini vortices inside the eye.

#2617 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:13 am

The eye continues to contract as she continues to strengthen.

#2618 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:29 am

CIMSS ADT numbers suggest she is now a major:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2011 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 24:28:51 N Lon : 63:10:42 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 956.8mb/104.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 39 km

Center Temp : +12.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

clfenwi · #2619 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:33 am

A couple of shots from the 12Z GFS. Has Katia perfectly splitting Bermuda and the east coast, then turning right a bit south of Nova Scotia

#2620 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:36 am

SSD numbers are even higher!
Latest advanced Dvorak from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... L-list.txt:
2011SEP05 154500 6.1 945.3/ -0.1 /117.4 6.1 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.64 -71.59 EYE 34 IR 24.53 63.20 COMBO

Pressure estimate (blue) of 945 mb, winds (red) at 117 kt, 135 mph or category four and raw T-numbers (orange) suggesting a borderline cat. 4/5.
Of course we have to be cautious with those raw numbers, they might be way off.

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