Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1029 PM AST SUN SEP 4 2011

...EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE KATIA WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE LOCAL
PASSAGES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...

.LONG PERIOD...MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

AMZ710-051030-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0124.000000T0000Z-110906T0400Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1029 PM AST SUN SEP 4 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST
MONDAY NIGHT...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST
MONDAY NIGHT.

* WAVES: SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST MON SEP 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE KATIA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH OF KATIA WILL INVADE THE AREA
UNTIL MOISTURE SWEEPS IN ON THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ON THURSDAY.
THIS MOISTURE MAY PERSIST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. EACH OF THESE WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE KATIA WAS ABOUT 460 NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
OR 430 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS AT 5 AM AST AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS
WILL PLACE PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THE VERY
FRINGE OF ITS WIND FIELD CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK WEST NORTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS OVER THE TOP OF A COL JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST.

ALTHOUGH LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE AIR IS DRIER HERE THAN THE
LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS...IT IS STILL COMING IN ON THE SAN JUAN
SOUNDER WITH A RESPECTABLE 1.6 INCHES. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE
MIMIC PRODUCT WHICH SHOWS MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING INTO THE HURRICANE JUST SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. NAM AND WRF SOLUTIONS VARIED SLIGHTLY...BUT
PRINCIPALLY IN WHICH DIRECTION THE SURFACE AIR FLOW WOULD BE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WOULD AFFECT THE EXACT POSITION
OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE NOT GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
TODAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. HAVE USED
THE NAM TO LOCATE GOOD CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF AND ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SOME SEA BREEZES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ISLAND
SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION TO BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES BETWEEN
05/15-17Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CONVECTION SPREADING BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH FROM THERE IN THE MID AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY COASTAL
LOCATIONS SHOW THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE UNDER
TODAY`S THUNDERSTORMS AND IS EXPECTED IN ISOLATED AREAS.

THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT ON
THURSDAY. BUT EXPECT THE WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BECAUSE OF THE FRAGMENTATION OF THE WAVE THAT THE
GFS IS SHOWING...BUT STILL CONSIDER THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST AREA WIDE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE BASIS OF THE ECMWF. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS
SHOWS A TUTT NOSING INTO THE AREA BY LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AND THIS
SHOULD HOLD CONVECTION DOWN A LITTLE.

IN THE LONGER RANGE THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT ANOTHER LOW FORMING
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA LATE IN THE TEN DAY PERIOD. AND THE
TROPICAL WAVES THAT FORM IN THE MEANTIME MIGHT HAVE HAD A BETTER
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WERE IT NOT FOR THE TUTT LOW AT UPPER LEVELS
PROVIDING A MODICUM OF SHEAR. THESE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 05/17Z. AFT 05/17Z...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN SHRA
AND TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ...TJBQ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH
ABOUT 05/23Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE
SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOWED WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC WITHIN 150
MILES OF PUERTO RICO WOULD BE TOPPING OUT AROUND 05/00Z. ACTUAL BUOY
READINGS AT BUOY 41043 PEAKED SHARPLY AT 05/04Z AT 11.6 FEET WHILE
THE NEAR SHORE CARI-COOS BUOY PEAKED AT 6.6 FEET AT 05/00Z. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHY THEY PEAKED SO SOON OR SO SHARPLY GIVEN THE WIND
FIELD SURMISED TO BE AROUND HURRICANE KATIA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST THE WAVES CAN REACH AT THIS TIME. WILL
RECONSIDER THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z TODAY AFTER
FURTHER BUOY READINGS COME IN...BUT MAY HAVE TO DROP IT. WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC ZONES 710...712 AND
741...FOR RESIDUAL 7 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA...BUT EXPECT
THAT THEY WILL ALL BE GONE BY TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET FOR THE THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 30 30 30 20
STT 88 78 89 80 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

We will have to watch the progress of invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic because is in a low latitude position that could mean a threat to the Caribbean islands.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 95L by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/

Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic Designated Invest 95L Needs To Be Monitored:
I’m also keeping close tabs on a tropical wave, now designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center, that is located in the eastern Atlantic about 500 miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Some development of this disturbance is possible this week, however, the global model guidance indicates that development will wait until it is in the Caribbean in 6 to 8 days or so. It looks like that this disturbance will have plenty of moist air to work with and environmental conditions are favorable for development.

This is a system that definitely will need to be watched closely as a ridge of high pressure will strengthen as Katia pulls to the north and northeast later this week. This would mean that 95L would likely remain on a general westward track right into the Caribbean by the weekend. All of our Crown Weather friends in the Lesser Antilles should keep a close eye on 95L as it may be affecting you in about 6 to 8 days from now.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of 95L.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west at 15 mph. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to drop to the low range tomorrow, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in two or so days. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday; given the storm's rather impressive organization and spin apparent on recent satellite loops, I'd put these odds at 40%. The NOGAPS model predicts 95L will develop by Saturday, a few hundred miles north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but this storm could just as easily pass directly through the Lesser Antilles on Saturday or Sunday, and develop into a tropical storm much sooner. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands this weekend, pay attention to 95L.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO goes up to 60%.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST MON SEP 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND
IT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND...MORE ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...
STILL EXPECT LIGHT AND SOMETIMES VARIABLE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WITH A CONTINUATION OF SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER BRIEF DRYING EARLY
WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL DIURNAL AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BRINGING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FA.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR DISTURBANCE
95L DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
MAY HAVE A FUTURE NEAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 5 DAYS OR
SO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW PASSING L/LVL CLDS AND SHRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS BTW PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE KATIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
LOCAL PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SEAS RETURNING TO
MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY
EXPECT WINDS OF 13 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
AMZ710 UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT AND FOR AMZ712 AND 741 UNTIL 6
PM AST THIS EVENING. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS SEVERAL OTHER SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 90 / 20 30 20 20
STT 79 88 79 89 / 20 20 30 30

[Macrocane]

Yesterday temperatures in Central America:
-Warmer than normal highs in Belize and Costa Rica, near normal in the resto of the region.
-Near normal lows were registered in all the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.8°C (51.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.5°C (56.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F) The day before it registered 16°C (61°F)the coolest since May 23
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.6°C (54.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.9°C (89.4°F) Warmest since June 29
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (97°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Here is what Dr Knabb of TWC says about 95L.

Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Expert, The Weather Channel

Sep 5, 2011 5:01 pm ET

ATLANTIC BASIN

* A well-defined tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, with a closed circulation apparently forming along with increasing thunderstorm activity. A depression appears likely to form within the next couple of days as the system moves westward. It could reach the Leeward Islands by this weekend, but it is too soon to determine what other land areas might eventually be affected.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1011 PM AST MON SEP 5 2011

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND PERSISTED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVED SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST...UNDER THE INFLUENCE A WEAK
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD WIND FIELD
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE KATIA. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THURSDAY...EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BRINGING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST TUE SEP 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AND
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND
IT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SECOND...MORE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOVEMENT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE REGIONAL
AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL
COMBINE AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LATER ON SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA WILL HELP GENERATE DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.

A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 49 W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE NAM
MODEL DEVELOP THIS WAVE...AT THIS MOMENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE.
THEREFORE EXPECT SOME SHOWER...THUNDERSTORM AND CLOUD COVERAGE TO
INCREASE BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

A MORE ORGANIZE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 35W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 06/17Z. AFT 06/17Z...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN SHRA
AND TSRA...AFFECTING TJMZ...TJBQ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ THROUGH
ABOUT 06/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE
SURFACE.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE KATIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 30 20 20 10
STT 89 79 90 80 / 20 30 30 40

[Macrocane]

Yesterday (September 5, 2011) temperatures in Central America:
-Cooler than normal lows were registered in Costa Rica and Panama, warmer than normal in Guatemala and near normal lows in the rest of the region.
-El Salvador experienced cooler than normal highs, they were near normal in the other countries.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 27°C (81°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.3°C (50.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.7°C (56.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.7°C (71.1°F) Coolest since August 2
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.7°C (42.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.2°C (54.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 30.6°C (87.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25°C (77°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34°C (93°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.2°C (81.0°F) Coolest since August 1
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F) Warmest since August 5
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO. Almost a TD.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY BE FORMING. ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE INITIATED LATER TODAY
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN GRADUALLY IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST 15 MPH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 3N
TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT SURROUNDS THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER
MAY BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE LOW CENTER.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST TUE SEP 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MAJOR HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL WEAKEN AS ITS
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WEST TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERWARDS...A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW RESULTED ONCE
AGAIN IN STRONG SEA BREEZE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION PRODUCED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF MOCA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO
AREA. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...WITH PWAT FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 2.2 INCHES. THIS
WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32/33W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALL INTERESTS IN PR AND USVI ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR IN SHRA/TSRA...AND OVR
OR NEAR TJSJ...TJMZ...TJBQ...TJPS AT LEAST TIL 06/22Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZES IN
SOME AREAS. AFT 06/22Z...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL LOCAL PASSAGES
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOATING AND SURF ZONE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 20 20 70 70
STT 79 89 79 89 / 20 30 70 70

[lester]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al142011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109061830
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED
WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE LEADING TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON A DEVELOPING
TREND...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PATH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...
FOLLOWING THE LGEM MODEL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS
IT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED AND WE DID NOT HAVE A WELL
DEFINED CENTER BEFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS
THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CYCLONE VERY FAST ON
A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THESE
TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BIASED A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE
ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 11.8N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.9N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.5N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 16.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 17.0N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 19.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 38.1W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

11 PM Track.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
AGENCIES ARE 2.0...WHICH DO NOT SUPPORT NAMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. NORMALLY WE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS LOCATION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT CALL FOR MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THE REASONS FOR THIS ARE
NOT CLEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT IS ONE OF FEW MODELS TO DO SO. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
QUITE CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HURRICANE FORECAST
IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...MODELS. THIS IS ALSO THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...BUT A SMOOTHED
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAYS 2-3...HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE RIGHT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFS
AMONG THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND THE ECMWF AND HWRF
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR OR A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 12.0N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.6N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 14.0N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 14.6N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 16.7N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 19.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




5 AM Track.