ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

dwsqos2 · #2641 Postby **dwsqos2** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 2:06 pm

Katia is starting to look less symmetric; cloud tops have warmed, and the eye is cooler; how depressing. We can barely squeeze out a major hurricane on September 5th.

#2642 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 2:15 pm

I think she has peaked at 1700UTC/1pm EDT as a strong cat.3/weak cat. 4 with winds of 130 to 135 mph and a central pressure of something in the 940s.
Kinda sad that the phase intensification took place directly after the advisory package was issued. If the current weakening continues, the NHC might take this trend into account with the 5pm advisories.

#2643 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 2:18 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:I think she has peaked at 1700UTC/1pm EDT as a strong cat.3/weak cat. 4 with winds of 130 to 135 mph and a central pressure of something in the 940s.
Kinda sad that the phase intensification took place directly after the advisory package was issued. If the current weakening continues, the NHC might take this trend into account with the 5pm advisories.

That is why Recon is needed to sample the real data of what is going on with the intensity. Unfortunely, no plane is flying today.

#2644 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 2:22 pm

I think the NHC is of the mindset that fuel costs money.. Why send a plane into a storm that will not endanger life or property....... A pretty storm to watch but ultimately destined for

#2645 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:19 pm

euro moved west

+96, that is a pretty close call for no one to be paying attention to it...

rainstorm · #2646 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:23 pm

i thought it might. dont be shocked if it moves a bit more west the next several runs.

#2647 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:26 pm

if it moves anymore west...that is basically a landfall on the outerbanks right? they definitely don't need another close call

#2648 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011

...KATIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 63.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATIA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST
OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BERMUDA...THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SWELLS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KATIA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE
INFRARED PRESENTATION IS LAGGING A BIT AND SHOWS A THINNING OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
RAISED TO 100 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER...BUT WITH THE CONVECTION LACKING SYMMETRY AND A COOLING EYE
IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES...I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO RAISE THE INTENSITY
ANY HIGHER.

THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS ABOUT 310/10 KT...AND KATIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS NEARLY STRAIGHT TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
FAIRLY SHARP RE-CURVATURE IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS AROUND DAY
3...AND THEY ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES THE
CENTER ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST. AS
WAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS STILL GREATER-THAN-NORMAL
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF
AGREEMENT ON WHEN KATIA WILL BE SCOOPED UP BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SPED
UP A BIT AND THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...SO THE UNCERTAINTY HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NEW
FORECAST IS A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 96-HOUR POINT TOWARD
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND STILL LIES NEAR THE
UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE. ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST WITH KATIA EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY LESS
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
ADDITION...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...AND THIS COULD ALSO LIMIT STRENGTHENING.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS IS SHOWING KATIA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY
5...BUT SINCE IT IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS IT IS PROBABLY
SHOWING THIS A LITTLE TOO SOON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 25.2N 63.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.1N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 27.3N 66.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 28.5N 67.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 29.7N 69.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 33.5N 70.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 42.0N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

#2649 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:38 pm

ECMWF model indicates that Katia will cross the North Sea next week (Monday - Tuesday) as a powerful extratropical storm. So perhaps we will see some remnants of her power over here.

#2650 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:39 pm

Becomes second major hurricane of 2011 season

...KATIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 63.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

#2651 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:15 pm

Hm, I think peak intensity has been missed for today, but another round is possible tomorrow.

#2652 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:16 pm

from the 5PM NHC discussion...guess the NHC is not buying into the euro for now

The 12-hour smoothed motion is about 310/10 kt...and Katia is
expected to continue on its nearly straight track for the next 48
hours as it moves around a central Atlantic mid-level anticyclone.
Fairly sharp re-curvature is shown by most of the models around day
3...and they are tightly clustered with a track that takes the
center almost midway between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast. As
was the case earlier today...there is still greater-than-normal
spread in the guidance at 96 and 120 hours due to a lack of
agreement on when Katia will be scooped up by strong mid-latitude
westerlies to the north. However...the ECMWF and UKMET have sped
up a bit and the GFS has slowed down...so the uncertainty has
decreased somewhat. The most significant change to the new
forecast is a slight northwestward shift of the 96-hour point toward
the multi-model consensus.

#2653 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:25 pm

Perfect storm, gonna split the EC/Bermuda uprights!

Epsilon_Fan · #2654 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:28 pm

looks like Katia lost her symmetry and the northeastern semicircle is a bit eroded... is this thing running into shear?

jabman98 · #2655 Postby **jabman98** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:43 pm

CronkPSU wrote:euro moved west

+96, that is a pretty close call for no one to be paying attention to it...

I'm in Houston and Katia isn't going to hit us here, but even so, the weather guy on the nightly news didn't mention Katia at all. When Irene was a hurricane, it was covered every weather segment. People really don't seem to be paying attention to Katia. Katia isn't making much news.

hurricanebuoy · #2656 Postby **hurricanebuoy** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:57 pm

HenkL wrote:ECMWF model indicates that Katia will cross the North Sea next week (Monday - Tuesday) as a powerful extratropical storm. So perhaps we will see some remnants of her power over here.

Off topic but used to live in Assen. That would make the Wadden Zee pretty frothy.

meriland23 · #2657 Postby **meriland23** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:59 pm

what cha coin katia lol. Anyone notice that wave in the atlantic that has a high chance of becoming a td? Wonder where this one will head.

toto · #2658 Postby **toto** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:12 pm

rainstorm wrote:
i thought it might. dont be shocked if it moves a bit more west the next several runs.

This is interesting.

Do you have a link to the Euro model ?

.

toto · #2659 Postby **toto** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:16 pm

jabman98 wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:euro moved west

+96, that is a pretty close call for no one to be paying attention to it...

I'm in Houston and Katia isn't going to hit us here, but even so, the weather guy on the nightly news didn't mention Katia at all. When Irene was a hurricane, it was covered every weather segment. People really don't seem to be paying attention to Katia. Katia isn't making much news.

I've noticed that too... the lack of coverage of Katia on the Weather Channel...
even when they say they will cover Katia after the commercial break... when
they come back from break, they don't... weird.

.

SouthernBreeze · #2660 Postby **SouthernBreeze** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:22 pm

meriland23 wrote:what cha coin katia lol. Anyone notice that wave in the atlantic that has a high chance of becoming a td? Wonder where this one will head.

keep an eye on it in 95L Models - looks like towards the Antilles for now

This is NOT a forecast, just an observation!

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