ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

I'm not sure this is going to be the big one of the season, none of the models (globals, regionals, tropicals) are making this the most intense storm of the season so far, not even a major hurricane I think. I believe it bears watching as it may affect land but we have to see the models for another couple of days to come to a conclusion about intensity.

[Vortex]

18Z GFDL would put alot of folks in harms way...well see if the trend continues with tonights runs. No one model of choice yet as there hasnt been much consistancy in the longer range...





http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[rainstorm]

looks similar to katia. very weak in the islands then heads to where katia is now.

[SeminoleWind]

i wouldn't focus to much on the long range GFS. especially one run that shows recurve so far out as we have seen many times this season things do and will change.
but i will admit 95L gives me a uneasy feeling for some reason.

[Vortex]

IR improving and deep convection just to the NW of the LLC and drawing closer...

[SapphireSea]

Models at this point are still out to lunch. Its going to be a day or two until they show remotely good solutions. I think this storm will intensify a bit faster than forecast by the models.

[rainstorm]

one thing is all the models show 95L will remain very weak which is odd considering its the peak of the season. i suspect its due to alot of shear katia will produce.

[expat2carib]

I agree. It will take the models 2 days to figure this one out.

[BigA]

Just want to remind myself and everyone else that in this stage in pre-Katia's life, many models had it recurving around 50-60 west, rather than 70-72 west which it will reach. This far out, there is no way of knowing with great accuracy where 95L will go.

But I would agree that given the general troughiness that has dominated this year, no landfall is more likely than landfall.

Still, if it doesn't develop for a while, it could be a low rider, at which case it would feel less of an east coast trough's effects. Like I said, still too early to say with any certainty.

[surfer_dude]

Seems like some in here are upset that tropical storms aren't making landfall this year but can we ignore the whining and get on to something fact based?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Best Track

AL, 95, 2011090600, , BEST, 0, 100N, 314W, 25, 1009, LO,

[cycloneye]

Comparing the 00z Best Track position of 10.0N-31.4W to the position that Katia was in the area.

TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

...NEW TROPICAL STORM MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 31.7W


It means 95L is more south of where Katia was at this point.

[fci]

Models at this point are still out to lunch. Its going to be a day or two until they show remotely good solutions. I think this storm will intensify a bit faster than forecast by the models.

Depending on where you live, this is several days from any good model solutions.

[surfer_dude]

Im not talking about everyone and i surely don't mean to stifle the discussion, just maybe some of these members should reread vbhoutex's announcement viewtopic.php?f=37&t=108211

As expected the parade of trofs continues. Very hard for any cv storm to make the trek all the way across with no significant ridge to drive these storms westward.

yea, the models show fantsy ridges that evaporate. i sure hope next season this 3 year pattern reverses.

i hope next season we have a bermuda high. that trough has been there for 3 years. irene barely snuck in.

[ConvergenceZone]

to be fair, as rainstorm stated, when the NHC stated that particular pattern change, the models were showing the ridge preventing any recurves...they go by what the models show and I don't think it is fair or correct to state that the NHC was giving the public bogus info or that they don't know what they are talking about....they are usually right on point most of the time...ok..back to the topic

Let's see what the next runs show....IMO, it's going to be until end of this week until we know for sure....right now models are guessing and are not that reliable this far out yet...we all know the GFS likes to turn storms too quickly...remember the GFS had Katia curving east of Bermuda on its first runs....while it still did recurve, it did it west of Bermuda

I understand your point, but they said it with such confidence that the validity seemed unquestionable to me, so I thought they were seeing something other than model runs. ....They didn't use the terms "could" or "might" or anything like that...Anyway, we'll see what happens.

But if they are just looking at what the models are showing, they should know about the poor accuracy of the models 7 to 10 days down the road. I mean, one should never look at what the models are depicting 7 to 10 days out, because we know their accuracy is going to be horrible. We've seen that time and time again this year. One run, the GFS shows a ridge protecting the USA, the next run, the ridge is further east etc.......

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models. For the first time SHIP makes 95L a hurricane.

Code: Select all

 
WHXX01 KWBC 060057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC TUE SEP 6 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110906 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110906  0000   110906  1200   110907  0000   110907  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.0N  31.4W   10.5N  34.2W   11.3N  37.6W   12.7N  41.6W
BAMD    10.0N  31.4W   10.7N  33.5W   11.8N  36.0W   13.1N  38.9W
BAMM    10.0N  31.4W   10.9N  33.7W   12.1N  36.5W   13.5N  39.7W
LBAR    10.0N  31.4W   10.6N  33.3W   11.3N  35.8W   11.9N  38.8W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          36KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110908  0000   110909  0000   110910  0000   110911  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.3N  46.1W   16.9N  54.9W   18.7N  62.2W   20.2N  67.6W
BAMD    14.7N  42.0W   17.2N  47.3W   19.2N  50.7W   19.5N  52.6W
BAMM    15.1N  43.2W   17.8N  50.2W   20.3N  56.5W   23.1N  61.4W
LBAR    12.7N  41.9W   14.1N  48.2W   16.2N  53.0W   12.9N  54.3W
SHIP        49KTS          54KTS          58KTS          66KTS
DSHP        49KTS          54KTS          58KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.0N LONCUR =  31.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =   9.8N LONM12 =  30.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =   9.5N LONM24 =  28.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


Saved image.

[Caribwxgirl]

based on nothing other than a poor guess i see this slow to develop ......aiming toward jamaica then curvin up thru cuba..

Did you not see my post that I hoped this would go out to sea and not be a Gilbert like storm in my area!!!! Take it back lol

[SFLcane]

With those models trends this thing might even stay north of PR.

[cycloneye]

With those models trends this thing might even stay north of PR.

I would like to see GFDL trend away from us after those two in a row runs of landfalls in PR.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I want to see what the Euro 00Z has. If it shows the system passing at a fairly low latitude as it did in its past 12Z run, or if it joins the GFS and the Bams...

Too bad it comes out very late after 2 AM...