ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[maxintensity]

Wow GFS backing off big time on any hint of a strong ridge with staying power. NE, NE, NE, NE. Let the trend begin.

[fci]

I agree with ConvergenceZone. Some of us here like the excitement severe weather, in this case, a hurricane brings. I believe there is nothing wrong with that.

With all due respect to the three of you, I think that being disappointed that storms are not hitting the CONUS and that the "thrill of the excitement" is missing; is miss-guided.

I am one of the first ones to roll my eyes when people become too "politically correct" on subjects like "fish" when The Islands get affected and sighs of relief when a storm misses someones location but causes destruction elsewhere. Sometimes I end up pointing that out on the board with explanations that people don't want death and destruction and that they are simply speaking off the cuff. Surely a storm that hits The Islands is not a "fish" but those from the CONUS who make the statement are thinking of where they live and are not intentionally wishing harm on others or are blowing off our friends in The Islands.

But, in the case of publicly lamenting the fact that storms keep missing the CONUS and are recurving; I think that sentiment is better left unsaid. And this comes from one who usually rails against being too politically correct.

There are a lot of enthusiasts here who love to follow, track and sometimes; experience, Hurricanes.
There are also a lot of people who are here because they are fearful of the destruction and financial loss (or ruin) that a storm can cause. They are here to get the best information possible on what is happening and what might happen. This aids in preparation in case a storm is actually headed their way.
The second group of people DON'T want to be struck by a Hurricane for the aforementioned reasons.
I am one of those people who, when I was a kid; loved getting hit by a storm.
Now that I am a homeowner and an adult who has been victimized by storms, the thought is not so appealing.
So, when I see someone blatantly unhappy and disappointed at the lack of landfalling storms, it is disconcerting to read.
It is insensitive to those mature folks who just don't like to lose their property and possessions to a Hurricane.

So, that is why I asked the question of why someone would publicly post what rainstorm posted and why I am put off by your agreement with the statement and the agreement also of CZ.

I spoke my piece and wish there were a bit more sensitivity by those who look at this as a big game.

I'll not clog up the 95L conversation with any more comment on this issue.

[Kohlecane]

im sorry but i want a westward storm

[meriland23]

Just read this about invest 95l on wordpress
This is a system that definitely will need to be watched closely as a ridge of high pressure will strengthen as Katia pulls to the north and northeast later this week. This would mean that 95L would likely remain on a general westward track right into the Caribbean by the weekend.

Is this the one that the models were depicting a few days ago, behind Katia? I was kind of figuring we would have to watch out for anything potentially developing behind Katia.

Yes it is, right now it is SW of the v islands

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Remains at 60%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[meriland23]

00z model guidance

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Interesting to note that while the majority of the models have align passing the system northeast of the Caribbean, the Euro continues to move the system into the Caribbean...Let's see tomorrow if the Euro continues its tendency or starts changing as the other models are doing.



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[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest TAFB Surface Forecast (72 hours)



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[caribepr]

Watchin' and waitin'...again

[maxintensity]

Euro is the only model that must be taken seriously when it is an outlier. When your the best model by a mile you tend to be an outlier. Other models eventually catch on to the solution but your by yourself leading the pack for awhile until they figure it out. Euro showing gangbuster ridging at hour 144. Impossible for anything to go out to sea with that in place.

[USTropics]

Euro has stronger ridging but also struggles to really do anything with 95L. There is an extremely weak reflection noticed at 96 hours passing through the Windward Islands:

[Fego]

00Z ECM moves 95L accross Hispaniola.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[meriland23]

This one looks so much more ominous, mainly cause even if it is destined for a curvature, it looks to me to be MUCH more south than katia.

[xironman]

Euro not bullish on development, 120 south of PR 168 about to go into CA.

[Fego]

True is that just brush southern Hispaniola. My bad.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[meriland23]

Euro not bullish on development, 120 south of PR 168 about to go into CA.

http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/1079/0 ... 0mbslp.gif

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/4043 ... mbslpv.gif

I don't see it, did it dissipate or something?

[USTropics]

Actually I don't think that low seen at 168 hours is associated with 95L. Looks like it's still south of Hispaniola/Southeastern tip of Cuba (what's left anyways):

[meriland23]

In any case, worry about the track and don't even pay attention to the wind speed probabilities. Cause when models are wrong about that, they are SO wrong. They are much much more accurate on tracking. Look at Katia now, I paid a lot of attention and I don't remember 1 model within the last week predicted a Cat 4. They thought just like a day or two ago she would be 110 mph at max.

[maxintensity]

If it stays weak and heads west it might eventually find a favorable environment in the western caribbean and then all bets are off. Worse case scenario is this stays a wave and heads west.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[meriland23]

according to euro, she will be rubbing up on cuba, still heading wnw at 192-216.