ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

I can not even tell which is which, there are two of them past 200 hours.

[USTropics]

Looks like at 240 hours, 95L is on the northwestern tip of Cuba:

[DAY_1_RESPONDER]

..............There are also a lot of people who are here because they are fearful of the destruction and financial loss (or ruin) that a storm can cause. They are here to get the best information possible on what is happening and what might happen. This aids in preparation in case a storm is actually headed their way.
The second group of people DON'T want to be struck by a Hurricane for the aforementioned reasons.
I am one of those people who, when I was a kid; loved getting hit by a storm.
Now that I am a homeowner and an adult who has been victimized by storms, the thought is not so appealing.
So, when I see someone blatantly unhappy and disappointed at the lack of landfalling storms, it is disconcerting to read.
It is insensitive to those mature folks who just don't like to lose their property and possessions to a Hurricane.

I fully agree with the quoted part of this post. Maybe we can start another thread on this subject.

Yes, I'm new here, yes, I'm not in the weather business, but I've seen first hand the damage that's cost both money and lives. A cat. 3 hitting Houston/Galveston isn't a fantasy, but when it hits, it's as real as it gets. Back during Alicia (1983) I saw a 60 year old man die due to the collateral damage caused by the hurricane. He wasn't killed during the hurricane, wasn't swept away by the storm surge, not hit by lightning. A couple of days after the storm, he was clearing out the trees when he had a massive heart attack and died. Folks, people die, and if every storm became a fish storm in the mid Atlantic, that would be fine by me.

I've seen the actual devastation caused by Claudette, Alicia, Allison1, Chantal, Jerry, Allison2, Rita, and Ike. Stuff I'll never forget, because after the weather moved through, I was smack dab in the middle of the damage.

[xironman]

Actually I don't think that low seen at 168 hours is associated with 95L. Looks like it's still south of Hispaniola/Southeastern tip of Cuba (what's left anyways):

You're right, should have look at the 850's. Interesting spot @240

[USTropics]

First visible satellite image of the day. While it's lost some of the stronger convection over night, still looking good with some nice curved banding and deepening cloud tops on the eastern side:

[cpdaman]

well lets see if the euro caves to the gfss day 5/6solution like w katia

[weatherwindow]

Luis(cycloneye) and all Borinquenos, 95L has the real possibility of being San Felipe III....for the uninitiated the storm know as the Great Okeechobee hurricane, which landfell Florida on 9/16/1928, first devastated Puerto Rico on 9/13. As is the custom, it was named for the saints day on which it fell, the feast of San Felipe. This hurricane is known as San Felipe II because another significant hurricane befell Puerto Rico on 9/13/1876. San Felipe II roared ashore near Guayama on the southeast coast and tracked diagonally across the island exiting near Aguadilla. Winds were measured by anemometer in San Juan at 160mph(fastest one minute). This was the first measured category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. 312 were killed and the damages were in the hundreds of millions. Its subsequent landfall in Florida needs no discussion and ranks as the 2nd deadliest US storm with an estimated 2500 deaths.So if future Maria should landfall Puerto Rico on 9/13 it becomes San Felipe III.....rich

[cpdaman]

seems the euro shows inc low level flow causing the llc to run ahead of the mlc about a day or so from now. develop tuesday or poss wait another 5 days...seems a possibility. i.e llc when inc. speed will b runnin into shear out ahead and euro says centers will get displacd

[USTropics]

I've been comparing the GFS/Euro 00z model runs and through 96 hours the overall upper air pattern is quite similar. It appears the major difference is the initialization point. The GFS initializes the LLC on the northwestern side of the convection, whereas the Euro initializes the LLC on the southeastern side of the convection. You can really see this at 24 hours:

00z GFS


00z Euro


Given the current satellite presentation, NHC/NRL coordinates, and this 850mb vorticity chart below, the Euro initialization point appears more accurate.

[USTropics]

GFS 06z is running, 95L is a bit more south in this run, with ridging also extending a bit more westward compared to the 00z:

102 hours

[USTropics]

After scraping the Leeward Islands, 95L begins heading in a more NW direction. In the long range, it's comparable to the 00z, but in the short term a bit more southerly direction with more of an impact on the Leewards:

150 hours

[rainstorm]

thats one heck of a trough. i imagine it recurves around 70w

[USTropics]

Starting to head NNE. Sitting pretty much on top of Bermuda at 174 hours:

[rainstorm]

katia and 95L will cool off the waters. amazing pattern persistence since 2008.

[Nimbus]

USTropics wrote:

Looks like at 240 hours, 95L is on the northwestern tip of Cuba:

We haven't seen a strong ridge in that position all summer but patterns do change.

Invest 95 is a little further south than Katia so the potential for trouble could begin early in the islands.
Its getting later in the season so the likelihood of 95L spinning up into a hurricane east of the Caribbean is higher.

The persistent TUTT off the east coast that turned Katia would pull 95L up towards Florida if it was south of Cuba. I had thought Katia might encounter stronger mid Atlantic ridging back when she was at this longitude but she missed the Hebert box by two degrees.

[Gustywind]

From SSD

06/0600 UTC 10.2N 32.5W T1.5/1.5 95L
05/2345 UTC 10.3N 31.2W T1.5/1.5 95L

[USTropics]

In case anyone missed this yesterday, it's a snippet from the HPC discussion:

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/05 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z/05 ECMWF WAS CLOSE TO THE
09Z/05 NHC FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE KATIA WELL OFF THE EAST
COAST...WITH THE 00Z/05 GFS MUCH FASTER RECURVING THE SYSTEM. THE
CIRCULATION OF KATIA IS LARGE ENOUGH THAT ITS POSITION WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY BEAR ON THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPSTREAM FLOW OVER
THE CONTINENT...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF LEE AND THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT CAPTURED THE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CORRELATES WELL WITH BOTH THE 00Z/05 ECENS
MEAN AND THE GEFS MEAN FROM THAT MODEL CYCLE...AFFORDING MORE
REALISTIC PRESSURE GRADIENTS THAN ANY GIVEN BLEND OF THE MEANS.

[cycloneye]

Luis(cycloneye) and all Borinquenos, 95L has the real possibility of being San Felipe III....for the uninitiated the storm know as the Great Okeechobee hurricane, which landfell Florida on 9/16/1928, first devastated Puerto Rico on 9/13. As is the custom, it was named for the saints day on which it fell, the feast of San Felipe. This hurricane is known as San Felipe II because another significant hurricane befell Puerto Rico on 9/13/1876. San Felipe II roared ashore near Guayama on the southeast coast and tracked diagonally across the island exiting near Aguadilla. Winds were measured by anemometer in San Juan at 160mph(fastest one minute). This was the first measured category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. 312 were killed and the damages were in the hundreds of millions. Its subsequent landfall in Florida needs no discussion and ranks as the 2nd deadliest US storm with an estimated 2500 deaths.So if future Maria should landfall Puerto Rico on 9/13 it becomes San Felipe III.....rich

That is a well done abstract of what occured with that historic landfall here. Let's hope that we dont see another cat 5 making landfall anywhere. Let's see what happens with this present scenario,but I agree with Marcocane,that this wont be a major before reaching the Lesser Antilles,if it tracks that way.But then comes that saying "Never say never in the tropics".

[Gustywind]

Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Expert, The Weather Channel

Sep 6, 2011 5:02 am ET


* A well-defined tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, with a closed circulation apparently forming along with increasing thunderstorm activity. A depression appears likely to form within the next couple of days as the system moves westward. It could reach the Leeward Islands by this weekend, but it is too soon to determine what other land areas might eventually be affected.

[LarryWx]

From SSD

06/0600 UTC 10.2N 32.5W T1.5/1.5 95L
05/2345 UTC 10.3N 31.2W T1.5/1.5 95L

IF 95L is truly only close to 32.5W as of 6Z, then I could say with certainty that the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs are initializing 95L quite a bit too far west...about 4 degrees. That 4 deg. may be quite crucial as both the GFS and Euro runs of the last few cycles are insisting on a pretty strong and persistent ridging pattern setting up along the U.S. east coast around 9/15, which, if accurate, would be a major pattern change. This means that a slower, more easterly position of 95L vs. the last two gfs runs may mean it would actually miss that trough that takes it well east of the US and instead get trapped underneath the building ridge around midmonth. IF that were to occur, 95L would likely make a move toward FL or some other portion of the SE US soon afterward. So, this is why what appear to be too far west gfs initializations may mean that the latest 95L recurves on the gfs may verify to be incorrect.

Even if 95L were not to be trapped or not to still exist, that new ridging pattern starting around midmonth would be a rather ominous sign for increased risk of a SE US TC landfall based on history. Persistent and nearly stationary relatively high pressure in that position makes it quite conducive for low pressure to exist and strengthen underneath as well as move toward the SE US if there is not already an existing TC.