Another Gulf storm? - (Is invest 96L)

[Air Force Met]

Do yall think it could come to Texas?

Not a chance. It either gets picked up by the trof (EURO solution) or misses the trof and gets tucked under the ridge (GFS solution). I see little in teh way of rain chances for at least the next 10 days.

Lot's of dry air though to wring out every little bit of moisture though. Should be a really bad fall for wildfires.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I can't remember ever seeing this much dry air in the gulf in early september. And the black on the wv imagery, wow. Wonder if this will be like Lee, a hybrid type subtropical storm with most of the weather to its east? The track looks pretty cut and dry either NNE or west if slow and weak? Hope the trough is strong enough to pull it NE and not just enough to pull it north so it has a chance to come to SE LA. We dont need more rain here this weekend.

[Sabanic]

We could do without more here also. 12" this weekend!!

[underthwx]

THE UPPER LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO
RETROGRADE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY......

thats not good for already saturated ground...whens it gonna end?..too much for some..not enough or none for others...(sorry if im off topic)



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[lonelymike]

WITH CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE FLOW DEPICTED BY
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN
CANADA ENTERING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...ALONG WITH INCREASING
BAROCLINICITY AND AN ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA TO ASSIST IN CUTTING OFF THE CONUS FROM THE PRIMARY
BELT OF THE WESTERLIES...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ENTERING THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SHOULD BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT AND RECENT PRIOR GUIDANCE SHOW RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE PRIMARY FEATURES OVER THE CONUS...INCLUDING CONSOLIDATING
BROAD AND MAINLY WEAK UPPER LOWS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/CALIFORNIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND A SEPARATE UPPER
LOW OVER OR NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT DEPICTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BY MOST GUIDANCE. THE MAIN
AREAS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE EASTERN LOW...WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z DGEX MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL OR
HYBRID LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALLOWING IT TO MOVE ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
00-06Z GFS...SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PRIOR GFS
RUNS ALONG WITH MANY 00-06Z GEFS MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF. THUS...THIS SCENARIO DESERVES SOME MERIT. FOR
NOW...WILL RELY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY
WHICH INCLUDES COORDINATION FROM THE NHC THAT SHOWS A LOW EVOLVING
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD BUT NOT
ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SOLUTION
SPREAD INCREASES QUITE A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA BY DAYS
6/7...WITH TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BECOMING EVIDENT AS A
LARGE/DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF JAMES
BAY...THAT SHOULD INCLUDE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7. THUS...MODEL
PREFERENCES SWITCH TO THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO ADDRESS THESE DIFFERENCES.

HPC thoughts this AM

[tailgater]

Latest run of the NAM through 69 hrs. has it pushing west toward central Mexico.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... _thick.gif

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks lonely mike. Noticed they mentioned hybrid as well. Could be another lopsided ugly Lee type system. Sounds like right now, at least, that most areas that were affected by Lee will not get much from this.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

tailgater, I am officially done with the NAM. For a brief moment I actually thought it could right with Lee missing the trough and doing a loop in the gulf and coming back to LA as a hurricane. Was it and I off on that! Now I've come back to my senses and look at it for entertainment only.

[lonelymike]

Thanks lonely mike. Noticed they mentioned hybrid as well. Could be another lopsided ugly Lee type system. Sounds like right now, at least, that most areas that were affected by Lee will not get much from this.

Sure hope not Cyclone. With all the dry air in the Gulf looks like a hybrid non tropical storm might be best bet. Beautiful fall day in NW Fla

[lostsole]

But will it Rain in Texas, you now it has been very dry there and those people I think want rain. *LOL*

[tobol.7uno]

tailgater, I am officially done with the NAM. For a brief moment I actually thought it could right with Lee missing the trough and doing a loop in the gulf and coming back to LA as a hurricane. Was it and I off on that! Now I've come back to my senses and look at it for entertainment only.

Don't jump on NAM too much, it got the time-frame right for developing Lee, it just was not sure where. The other models were no charm with Lee either. It is very difficult to forecast a system that has not developed because they don't know where it will develop or even if it will develop!

[tobol.7uno]

But will it Rain in Texas, you now it has been very dry there and those people I think want rain. *LOL*

Texas has not been included in any pf the solutions, for the models that develop it, they move it west into Mexico.

[tobol.7uno]

Finally my last reply here... When will we see an Invest? We will get a better idea of its track then.

[lonelymike]

I'm sure Rock and Ivan will be in here later whipping up the crowd with competing models....Ivan wants one more storm into Pensacola before he is deployed to some exotic locale in Afgiraq while Rock is desperate for anything that will relieve him of showering in treated sewage

[tobol.7uno]

I'm sure Rock and Ivan will be in here later whipping up the crowd with competing models....Ivan wants one more storm into Pensacola before he is deployed to some exotic locale in Afgiraq while Rock is desperate for anything that will relieve him of showering in treated sewage

Although I would like to see a storm in Florida, I would rather have it go to Texas, they need it sooo bad.

[clfenwi]

Recon penciled in for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon , if needed.

NOUS42 KNHC 061515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 06 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-098
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE KATIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/1700Z
B. AFXXX 0212A KATIA
C. 07/1330Z
D. 30.5N 66.5W
E. 07/1630Z TO 07/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 07/1500Z
D. 20.5N 92.0W
E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A SECOND MISSION
INTO THE SUSPECT AREA AT 08/1800Z. 4. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION FOR HURRICANE
KATIA TAKING OFF AT 07/1100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cycloneye]

That is the best sign that invest is around the corner later today.

[Dean4Storms]

It is getting its act together quickly down there this am. Think the ECMWF has it pegged. Better keep an eye on it here in the Panhandle.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"]It is getting its act together quickly down there this am. Think the ECMWF has it pegged. Better keep an eye on it here in the Panhandle.[/quote]



Hey Dean...wouldn't this be more of a West Coast of Florida concern if it rides up that front?

Also, turned out to be a very interesting weekend here in the Panhandle didn't it? I was a little surprised...I didn't really expect to see much impact at all but yesterday was wild and wooly...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

tailgater, I am officially done with the NAM. For a brief moment I actually thought it could right with Lee missing the trough and doing a loop in the gulf and coming back to LA as a hurricane. Was it and I off on that! Now I've come back to my senses and look at it for entertainment only.

Don't jump on NAM too much, it got the time-frame right for developing Lee, it just was not sure where. The other models were no charm with Lee either. It is very difficult to forecast a system that has not developed because they don't know where it will develop or even if it will develop!

tobol, was not talking about the initial development. Was talking about the fact that once Lee was already inland the NAM was moving him south back into the gulf and doing a loop, bringing him back to LA as a hurricane.