ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[painkillerr]

whether it passes south, through or north of Puerto Rico depends on the strength of the ridge post Katia and the timing of that happening, forward speed and center location. Of course jokers such as center reformations as was the case of H. Irene. Since we are not sure where the center is you reslly have to draw a big cone of uncertainty at this point.

Also you don't need a major to wreck Puerto Rico or the Leewards. 100 mph with lots of water will suffice. Sooooooo, bears watching.

I agree. And keep in mind, we don't have a turnpike between PR and Florida. We gotta "suck it up"!

[Blown Away]

Saved Image. 12Z BAMS & TVCN.

[SFLcane]

Looks to ride into the weakness between southeast U.S and bermuda as most cape verde storms have done this season. No persistent high pressure over the eastern USA and the western Atlantic since what 2008 as someone else mentioned earlier.

[gatorcane]

Still a little early to be sure, but looks like a recurve away from the CONUS, again based on what the models are showing.

Keep in mind most Cape Verde systems recurve.

[SFLcane]

Still a little early to be sure, but looks like a recurve away from the CONUS, again based on what the models are showing.

Keep in mind most Cape Verde systems recurve.

Indeed! Kinda puts in perspective in my opinion how the large-scale steering patterns were so unique during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. The norm is for a mid-level trough near the eastern coast of the United States taking most storms out to sea before they could make landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Still a little early to be sure, but looks like a recurve away from the CONUS, again based on what the models are showing.

Keep in mind most Cape Verde systems recurve.

Indeed! Kinda puts in perspective how unique the 2004 and 2005 seasons were. The norm is for a mid-level trough near the eastern coast of the United States taking most storms out to sea before they could make landfall.

Dont be to quick to think the models are handling the weakness. there are already signs that the ridge is filling it quickly behind katia. if you look at the motion of the disturbance approaching the lesser antilies it moving due west. although shallow it give a pretty good indication of the flow in that area. Also the Euro takes the system all the way to western carribean. all signs i can see point towards the ridging filling in ( either long enough or more semi present ) to keep 95L/TD in the carribean. but of course only time will tell

[Nimbus]

The low level circulation is elongated east to west. If that persists it may hinder rapid development and keep the track south a little. None of the recurving storms so far this year left a strong high pressure ridge in their wake along the east coast.

Aric it does look as though Lee messed up the upper air pattern somewhat leaving a temporary weakness further west. Historically it is fairly common for one system to recurve, then a ridge builds in before the next system arrives. The combined effects of Lee and Katia could cause a change in the upper air pattern so its worth modeling.

So maybe we see some ridging over the northwest Atlantic at least for a few days after Katia and Lee exit. As 95L gets further west though I wouldn't be surprised if the trough migrates back east off the CONUS.

I've got a feeling 95L is going to be a real challenge to forecast. NHC did a superb job with Katia hope they have as much luck with 95L.

[Jimsot]

..............There are also a lot of people who are here because they are fearful of the destruction and financial loss (or ruin) that a storm can cause. They are here to get the best information possible on what is happening and what might happen. This aids in preparation in case a storm is actually headed their way.
The second group of people DON'T want to be struck by a Hurricane for the aforementioned reasons.
I am one of those people who, when I was a kid; loved getting hit by a storm.
Now that I am a homeowner and an adult who has been victimized by storms, the thought is not so appealing.
So, when I see someone blatantly unhappy and disappointed at the lack of landfalling storms, it is disconcerting to read.
It is insensitive to those mature folks who just don't like to lose their property and possessions to a Hurricane.

I fully agree with the quoted part of this post. Maybe we can start another thread on this subject.

Yes, I'm new here, yes, I'm not in the weather business, but I've seen first hand the damage that's cost both money and lives. A cat. 3 hitting Houston/Galveston isn't a fantasy, but when it hits, it's as real as it gets. Back during Alicia (1983) I saw a 60 year old man die due to the collateral damage caused by the hurricane. He wasn't killed during the hurricane, wasn't swept away by the storm surge, not hit by lightning. A couple of days after the storm, he was clearing out the trees when he had a massive heart attack and died. Folks, people die, and if every storm became a fish storm in the mid Atlantic, that would be fine by me.

I've seen the actual devastation caused by Claudette, Alicia, Allison1, Chantal, Jerry, Allison2, Rita, and Ike. Stuff I'll never forget, because after the weather moved through, I was smack dab in the middle of the damage.

I know its easy to get excited about storms so I give people lots of slack. I have been through two now Omar in 2008 and Earl last year. We built our house with Hurricane activity in mind as everyone does here. I am on here all 'season' because it is a great place for solid information from professionals and top amateurs. All I can say to you enthusiasts come on down and help me clean up after the next CAT3 close encounter, and enjoy no electricity, and no warm showers for a week or so, than you will be a real enthusiast!

[HurricaneWarning92]

Not all models are showing a definite recurve...

[HurricaneFan]

I should also be a Caribbean runner till about Jamaica when it should begin to turn into a weakness left by the low in the BOC after it moves NE.

Can you please make a cone out of the models regarding track?,you've done a great job with the wave that became Irene with this.

[tolakram]

Lets keep this conversation about 95L model runs and save the general discussion for the 95L general discussion thread. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111794

[cycloneye]

Looks like a TD.

[gatorcane]

Yeah Aric we will have to wait and see.

Looking at the SAT images this morning, it looks like it is gaining less lattitude than Katia was gaining, so will see. If it takes longer to develop like the Euro suggests, could take a more southerly track. The way it gets to the United States would probably be a track through the Caribbean and then a turn to the North somewhere in the NW Caribbean or South of Cuba. It does appear that if it ends up north of the islands, it would recurve but still a couple of days too early to know for sure.

I just don't know if there will be enough ridging to get it to the NW Caribbean area though....right now looks like probably not.

[LarryWx]

well a recurve would be likely since that trough is rather persistent just farther to the west now instead of just off the east coast its sitting over the ohio valley. so somewhere along the central to to eastern gulf. I dont see this going north of the islands. the ridging should build in quite strong behind katia. it could come quite close to PR and Hispaniola however. Thats my present thinking.

As I'm sure you know but in case others don't, it's a new ballgame starting ~9/15 if the latest runs of the Euro/GFS are close to being correct with strong hints of persistent US east coast/NW ATL ridging getting established then, the likes of which really have yet to be seen this summer. The fact that we're in a La Nina makes this all the more believable. Just because ridging there has been pretty rare this summer does by no means mean it won't occur in a persistent nature this time. More ofthen than not, especially in a La Nina, this occurs at least a couple of times a hurricane season. This is especially the case when a strong surface high comes down from Canada as the models are saying is likely to occur next week.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z ECMWF shows a track through the Caribbean but as a weaker system. As long as it stays weak, I could see that happening since the models generally show enough ridging to keep this going west if it is not a deep system.

The rest of the models look like they are taking a developing system through or near the NE Leewards than a turn to the north or northwest after that.

So right now, the ECMWF is on the left-hand side of the guidance. But considering it is arguably the best model, can't rule it out.

The 12Z ECMWF will be interesting to see.

That would be the way to get a hit on the CONUS though -- weak system until the Central/NW Carib where it deepens into a hurricane, then a turn to the north into the east coast weakness.

Not out of the question but cannot rule out this possibility.

[clfenwi]

Couple of shots from 12Z GFS

48h



72h

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS 96h

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS 120h

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS 144h

[rainstorm]

more of the same, no ridging. i hope it can get out of the way fast.