LarryWx wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:well a recurve would be likely since that trough is rather persistent just farther to the west now instead of just off the east coast its sitting over the ohio valley. so somewhere along the central to to eastern gulf. I dont see this going north of the islands. the ridging should build in quite strong behind katia. it could come quite close to PR and Hispaniola however. Thats my present thinking.
As I'm sure you know but in case others don't, it's a new ballgame starting ~9/15 if the latest runs of the Euro/GFS are close to being correct with strong hints of persistent US east coast/NW ATL ridging getting established then, the likes of which really have yet to be seen this summer. The fact that we're in a La Nina makes this all the more believable. Just because ridging there has been pretty rare this summer does by no means mean it won't occur in a persistent nature this time. More ofthen than not, especially in a La Nina, this occurs at least a couple of times a hurricane season. This is especially the case when a strong surface high comes down from Canada as the models are saying is likely to occur next week.
Agree and the 0z EURO showed this as well....also might add the BOC area gets buries into MX in the 0z as well.....
also will add it doesnt look like a TD to me.....really broad area with an elongated low level cyclonic turning....still has some ways to go IMO...I think it will get there though...
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