ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

96hr going thru the central islands....smidge north this run

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


something to note is the BOC storm...if that guy launches east 95L will follow...IMO...

[LarryWx]

again this run the ridging fills in behind katia and 95l/ TD racing westward about to cross through central antilies. heading appears ( but difficult to tell for sure ) to be about 275 to 285

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Yeah looks like it is racing westward and staying generally weak again, so may stay west or west-northwest for a while...I am guessing the Euro is picking up on the shear out ahead of the system that it will encounter in the next 48-72 hours?

I have to go with the Euro right now considering how good of job it has done with these Cape Verde systems this season.

The UKMET is also very far west it looks like.

The UKMET has little credibility these days based on recent performance with both Irene and Katia and taking its left bias into account. However, the Euro, the king of relatively accurate models, is a whole diferent story.

[gatorcane]

Check out the trough over the Eastern CONUS, looks like it is elongating and retrograding west on this 12Z Euro run? Strange

Ridging over the Western Atlantic seems to be pushing it westwards.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

96hr going thru the central islands....smidge north this run

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


something to note is the BOC storm...if that guy launches east 95L will follow...IMO...

King Euro insists in a southern track. Should be interesting to see the official track and how much deference the NHC gives to that model.

[Aric Dunn]

again this run the ridging fills in behind katia and 95l/ TD racing westward about to cross through central antilies. heading appears ( but difficult to tell for sure ) to be about 275 to 285

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Yeah looks like it is racing westward and staying generally weak again, so may stay west or west-northwest for a while...I am guessing the Euro is picking up on the shear out ahead of the system that it will encounter in the next 48-72 hours? If that is the case we have a new ball-game here.

I have to go with the Euro right now considering how good of job it has done with these Cape Verde systems this season.

The UKMET is also very far west it looks like.

what I think your missing is the GFS which is the most right also has a weak system the whole time for instance the euro at 72 hours has 1010 mb and the gfs has a 1008 ... hardly able to say that a stronger system would go more right. The Euro at least does not send a tropical system through a large 500mb ridge. The other models are under doing the initial ridging.

Also the cmc only has at best a 1005 mb Nogaps is similar..

[Aric Dunn]

Check out the trough over the Eastern CONUS, looks like it is elongating and retrograding west on this 12Z Euro run? Strange

Ridging over the Western Atlantic seems to be pushing it westwards.

well it has been mentioned in quite a few NWS forecast discussions that the trough/ cut off low is supposed to retrograde westward.

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


120hr under PR....weak....BOC friend destroying SLA...should punch a good hole into the ridge for 95 to follow...

though decent enough ridging under our BOC friend...maybe not...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

06/1745 UTC 11.3N 36.2W T2.0/2.0 95L

[gatorcane]

Wow the 12Z Euro has much stronger ridging over the Bahamas and Bermuda at 144 hours....

Even if this system strengthened should stay west or westnorthwest.

[South Texas Storms]

Maybe it gets into the GOM on this run?

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al142011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109061830
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Gustywind]

Loop. 95L progresses westward...

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif

right under DR....oh man.... not another "whats land going to do to intensity storm"....ugh

[SFLcane]

Hostile conditions are waiting if the ECM is correct.

edit...trof waiting to scoop it up. 168hrs.

[Gustywind]

Given NRL site we could have TD 14...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... p&TYPE=vis

[Hurricaneman]

With this possibly being td14, do you think this is developing a little faster than modeled

[gatorcane]

Ridge completely collapses at 168 hours and heading NNW into the Bahamas (Emily redux it looks like)

[ROCK]

Hostile conditions are waiting if the ECM is correct.

the run is not finished? might be hostile now but what at 216hr?....

[SFLcane]

trof trof trof and more trofs...ready for some cool air in the comings weeks perhaps.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow the 12Z Euro has much stronger ridging over the Bahamas and Bermuda at 144 hours....

Even if this system strengthened should stay west or westnorthwest.

exactly even with the last runs of the euro there was slightly weaker ridging over the western atlanitc and still kept it on westerly track. vs the other models which have basically the same strength system yet turning it 295 starting now into a quite large ridge. the other models are to fast with the system and to slow with the ridging wedging in behind katia and the NE islands. so considering the present strength of the ridging matching with the euro initialization vs the other models that have a weakness farther east.. I am leaning towards the Euro ( which did very well with both irene and katia. )