ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Ridge completely collapses at 168 hours and heading NNW into the Bahamas (Emily redux it looks like)

yeah its gone...destroyed by the Death Star... so you go from 144hr to 24hrs later to no ridging....odd

[SFLcane]

Now is a TD...invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al142011.ren

[ROCK]

at least by 168hr that cut off low is finally moving out..had one last year about this time also...

[Aric Dunn]

well now there is a new pickle with this run.. the land interaction.. its hard to tell if the euro even still has a established system.. but its a 168 hours out. but up to 120 hours is quite reasonable even to 144 hours. it should begin recurve/turn at some point after 144 hours given the trough placement.. that part was a given.

[LarryWx]

trof trof trof and more trofs...ready for some cool air in the comings weeks perhaps.

Yep, the 12Z Euro, just like the 12Z GFS, appears to want to delay establishing sig. ridging along the US east coast vs. its earlier runs. Prior to the 12Z runs, these two models had previously suggested strong ridging getting established near 9/15.

[Aric Dunn]

Now is a TD...invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al142011.ren

00z models will have a better handle on position and for motion and speed so we should see some more consensus in the next 3 days...

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro recurves this along 75W and there's no east coast ridging to stop it.

[ROCK]

yep Larry....adios...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro recurves this along 75W and there's no east coast ridging to stop it.

True, but if somehow it manages to get a little further west into the Western Caribbean south of Cuba (if significant development is delayed until then), it could turn north a little farther west which would put Florida or the EGOM at risk.

But given the fact it looks to be organizing quite rapidly, could take more of a GFS track

[cycloneye]

NRL has it as TD 14.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

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14L.FOURTEEN
13L.LEE
12L.KATIA
 


[Aric Dunn]

12Z Euro recurves this along 75W and there's no east coast ridging to stop it.

True, but if somehow it manages to get a little further west into the Western Caribbean south of Cuba (if significant development is delayed until then), it could turn north a little farther west which would put Florida or the EGOM at risk.

yeah the 00z run does that. its also very far out.. even the euro could not see katia that far out. but gfs has the same strength system......... just weaker ridging.. different set up...

[ROCK]

12Z Euro recurves this along 75W and there's no east coast ridging to stop it.

True, but if somehow it manages to get a little further west into the Western Caribbean south of Cuba (if significant development is delayed until then), it could turn north a little farther west which would put Florida or the EGOM at risk.

I would still like to see some more runs before I jump on the EURO or any other model for that matter. Even at 192-240hr that is long range for the EURO....if it was showing this in the 144hr then yeah I would bite on it...

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro recurves this along 75W and there's no east coast ridging to stop it.

True, but if somehow it manages to get a little further west into the Western Caribbean south of Cuba (if significant development is delayed until then), it could turn north a little farther west which would put Florida or the EGOM at risk.

Makes sense. This run is soooooo diferent from the 0Z Euro at this point. The 0Z Euro had a very impressive blocking 1035 mb sfc high over the NE US taking its time in moving after that.

[gatorcane]

Yeah it looks like the 00Z Euro recurves it into Southern Florida, so the turn happens further west.....as ROCK mentioned, we are talking 192 hours+ here, 00Z Euro could trend back west tonight.

But the GFS is much further east on the track than the Euro. It did nail Katia's track so we will see. But the GFS does tend to overdo weaknesses too much. Maybe it is not handling the weakness that will be left behind by Katia properly.

[LarryWx]

But given the fact it looks to be organizing quite rapidly, could take more of a GFS track

Maybe, but keep in mind that the GFS initialized ~275 miles WNW of the Euro and the Euro looks accurate vs. actual position. So, it still may behave more like the Euro than the GFS based on much better init.

[gatorcane]

Another thing about the 12Z Euro is that that a strong Bermuda High ridge suddenly goes poof in 24 hours between 144 and 168 hours. Does not seem realistic.

The 00Z gradually weaknened the ridge over the course of a couple of days which seems more reasonable.

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Euro recurves this along 75W and there's no east coast ridging to stop it.

True, but if somehow it manages to get a little further west into the Western Caribbean south of Cuba (if significant development is delayed until then), it could turn north a little farther west which would put Florida or the EGOM at risk.

Makes sense. This run is soooooo diferent from the 0Z Euro at this point. The 0Z Euro had a very impressive blocking 1035 mb sfc high over the NE US taking its time in moving after that.

yes the 00z run after 168 hours had a more progressive trough which let the trough in the 12z run to pass by and kept it on the wnw heading to the NW carrib. but remember how many run to run consistency issues we just had with the euro for Katia after 144 to 168 hours.. from 12z to 00z it was flip flopping from trough to ridge. but up to the 120 hours the euro was very good and again the 120 to 144 hours difference with the 00z and 12z is very small its after where things change. . and so given the current set up the euro seems the most reasonable..

biggest difference up to 120 hours is the the gulf system this run is much stronger than the 00z run which might be the reason for the stronger trough this run

[BigA]

For what its worth, 240 Euro shows it moving due north, not NE out to sea. Actually looks to come pretty close to Hatteras, though not as a particularly strong system.

[ROCK]

Larry I think the HIGH is still there but is only around 1025MB which is huge...probably wont influence track until maybe the TD? is further up the coast. EC threat for real this time? I know JB will be slobbering at the bit on this guy....

[cycloneye]

While you talk about the euro,here are the 18z Tropical Models for TD 14.

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TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC TUE SEP 6 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE FOURTEEN (AL142011) 20110906 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110906  1800   110907  0600   110907  1800   110908  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.5N  35.8W   12.8N  40.0W   14.2N  44.7W   15.1N  49.7W
BAMD    11.5N  35.8W   12.4N  38.3W   13.5N  41.1W   14.5N  43.8W
BAMM    11.5N  35.8W   12.4N  38.5W   13.5N  41.7W   14.6N  44.9W
LBAR    11.5N  35.8W   12.2N  38.6W   12.9N  41.9W   13.6N  45.3W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          43KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          39KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110908  1800   110909  1800   110910  1800   110911  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.7N  54.2W   15.9N  61.9W   16.3N  66.6W   17.8N  69.4W
BAMD    15.5N  46.4W   17.5N  51.5W   20.0N  56.2W   22.7N  59.7W
BAMM    15.6N  48.1W   17.9N  54.6W   21.0N  60.7W   23.8N  65.0W
LBAR    14.3N  48.7W   16.7N  54.9W   20.8N  62.2W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        46KTS          52KTS          61KTS          68KTS
DSHP        46KTS          52KTS          61KTS          68KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.5N LONCUR =  35.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  10.6N LONM12 =  32.5W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   9.9N LONM24 =  30.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM