ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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meriland23
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#621 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:58 pm

h48
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#622 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:05 pm

Looking at this, it is more slower and to the south around hour sixty
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#623 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:07 pm

h72
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#624 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:13 pm

Image
h 96
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#625 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:15 pm

That is a good bit further south this time running into the islands it looks like and weaker.
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#626 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:16 pm

I notice the remnants of katia? are MUCH further NE than 18z
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Steve H.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#627 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:18 pm

You would think more ridging in the void that Katia leaves.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#628 Postby Wthrman13 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:19 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
kirium wrote:

Could you explain to me, as I'm new, as to what the "euro" is? sorry, I know it's a newbie question, but trying to follow along.


The Euro is a weather computer model (some consider it to be the most accurate medium range model (4-6 days out)).



Statistically, the ECMWF does tend to outperform the GFS (the "Global Forecasting System" model, which is the U.S.'s operational global model). There are many reasons for this, some of them political. However, for any given case, the GFS can perform better than the ECMWF.
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#629 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:20 pm

This is what I mean by that

This is 18z for 9/11/11 at 18z
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this is 0z for 9/11/11 18z
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Notice the difference
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#630 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:23 pm

h135
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#631 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:23 pm

at hour 132 a 1020 high is parked right above her
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#632 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:24 pm

Though 95L continues to move north. A suspect solution IMO.
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#633 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:31 pm

Image

h159
Last edited by meriland23 on Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#634 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:31 pm

hrs 138-156 barely moves much.
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#635 Postby SeminoleWind » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm

hr 168 still not moving much?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal168.gif
Last edited by SeminoleWind on Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#636 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:33 pm

Steve H. wrote:Though 95L continues to move north. A suspect solution IMO.


You're right, unless there is like a mid level weakness, but these things never go through a ridge like that, so I believe although the GFS may be showing everything else correctly, the storm movement itself is erroneous

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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#637 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:34 pm

I believe someone posted on a previous thread that the GFS was depicting a (very)upper level weakness it is a few pages back I believe.
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#638 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:35 pm

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Re: ATL: FOURTEEN - Models

#639 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:38 pm

Thanks for the posting Meriland23! TIME TO HIT THE SHEETS.
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#640 Postby meriland23 » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:39 pm

this one appears to be far slower than z18. At the same time, 0z on the 14th at 18z is nearest to the carolinas, where on the 14th at 18z now is nearest to NY and NJ
Last edited by meriland23 on Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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