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I am generally excluding the models that go southwest into the Pacific as I see these solutions very unlikely.
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jeff wrote:Whatever the track do not bring us any wind in TX. I stopped forecasting rain a month ago...it just is not going to rain...but do NOT let the winds blow. It is like California and the Santa Ana's here with Lee and the damage has been done. I greatly fear the fall cold fronts, we are going to burn and burn badly.
BigA wrote:Yep, looks like it is starting to spin up. Will be interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow morning, and what recon finds. My gut says west into Mexico, but not sure at all on that.
BigA wrote:GFS ensembles from the 18Z run: totally different from the operational run
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I do not understand why ensembles often all vary so much from the operational. Aren't they like the operational, but with slightly different initial conditions? I would expect some to be quite different, but not all different in one direction.
DIwestender wrote:Am I wrong or did the latest GFS run head this straight into Mexico again? I am new at this so hoping one of you might check and confirm. Thanks!
South Texas Storms wrote:Please be right please be right please be right.![]()
I hope to wake up to some promising news for once. CMC and Euro better be good to Texas tonight.![]()
Rock, you cantake over the late night model riegns for me tonight bro.
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