ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rainstorm]

i didnt say nate moving into mexico means maria hits anything. the only way maria is a threat is for nate to move west. should nate head north or northeast maria has no chance. lets face it, with or without nate ridging, based on the seasonal trend will be absent.

as we can see at 120 a strong trough is once again forming on the east coast.

[Frank2]

Yes, we'll end up with a cold winter here in Florida if these strong EC troughs are part of a long term weather pattern - we'll see, but per the other posts at least at this moment it does appear that Maria will be another recurving system...

At this moment, anyway...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

Low level center is shooting out ahead of the convection now due to the strong low level flow. you can see the LLC riding just south of the 13N line and seems since it has become detached the last few hours is heading basically due west. The appearance from this morning seemed to show a 280 to 285 heading but it now appears that it was the convection building to the north then being blown off while the LLC has been heading nearly due west. doing a long loop from late last night it is likely the center reformed in the last burst of convection early this morning and since has starting out running the convection. this is also why the models seem to indicate keeping the system weak. The ridging to the north is quite strong all the way to about 65W ( at the moment).


floater loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

atlantic view
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS 120h

Maria moves northerly through that ridge then because the mean steering level wind at that location has too much southerly component to keep it down. Why? Because the 500 mb heights are a little higher to its east and the sfc high is also centered to its east. That all translates into mainly rather light southerly winds through much of the steering column, which leads to slow northerly motion.

[Caribwxgirl]

Low level center is shooting out ahead of the convection now due to the strong low level flow. you can see the LLC riding just south of the 13N line and seems since it has become detached the last few hours is heading basically due west. The appearance from this morning seemed to show a 280 to 285 heading but it now appears that it was the convection building to the north then being blown off while the LLC has been heading nearly due west. doing a long loop from late last night it is likely the center reformed in the last burst of convection early this morning and since has starting out running the convection. this is also why the models seem to indicate keeping the system weak. The ridging to the north is quite strong all the way to about 65W ( at the moment).


loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html


http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1893/rgbl.jpg

So how do you think that will affect the next advisory?

[Fego]

I found odd, that in this run, GFS literally makes Maria jump to the North just when is over 60 west.

At 63 hrs:



At 66 hrs:

[Aric Dunn]

Low level center is shooting out ahead of the convection now due to the strong low level flow. you can see the LLC riding just south of the 13N line and seems since it has become detached the last few hours is heading basically due west. The appearance from this morning seemed to show a 280 to 285 heading but it now appears that it was the convection building to the north then being blown off while the LLC has been heading nearly due west. doing a long loop from late last night it is likely the center reformed in the last burst of convection early this morning and since has starting out running the convection. this is also why the models seem to indicate keeping the system weak. The ridging to the north is quite strong all the way to about 65W ( at the moment).


loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html


http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1893/rgbl.jpg

So how do you think that will affect the next advisory?

probably wont change anything this advisory but if it continues to out run convection and stay on a more westerly shift then gradual track shifts are likely and intensity would come down if it gets too far out ahead of the convection.

[cycloneye]

Results for San Juan, Puerto Rico (18.45N, 66W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.5N, 65.2W or about 89.1 miles (143.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 91.5 hours (Sunday, September 11 at 6:30AM AST).

[Aric Dunn]

I found odd, that in this run, GFS literally makes Maria jump to the North just when is over 60 west.

At 63 hrs:

[img]http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/4974/mariagfs12z63hrs.gif[/ig]

At 66 hrs:

[img]http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/5766/mariagfs12z66hrs.gif[/ig]

yeah mentioned it a few min ago that it just wants to take it through what seems like well pronounced ridge to the north. we shall see...

[cycloneye]

For the record.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

CONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS AND A RECENT ONE WITH STRONGER WINDS...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A CURVED BAND TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR
LGEM DEVELOPS THE CYCLONE TOO MUCH. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IS
THE GFDL AND IT ONLY INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ONLY.

MARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF
THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...KEEP MARIA ON
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
ONCE MARIA REACHES THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
WHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE GFS ON THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF ON THE
SOUTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.0N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.5N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 17.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 20.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[SFLcane]

i didnt say nate moving into mexico means maria hits anything. the only way maria is a threat is for nate to move west. should nate head north or northeast maria has no chance. lets face it, with or without nate ridging, based on the seasonal trend will be absent.

as we can see at 120 a strong trough is once again forming on the east coast.

What else is new this season. Regardless i just dont see how maria can continue much further westward with the weakness being left behind by katia.

[msbee]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 63.0W or about 8.6 miles (13.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 78.3 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:18PM AST).

[cycloneye]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 63.0W or about 8.6 miles (13.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 78.3 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:18PM AST).

Barbara, one mile away at 11 AM from the 5 AM one. But seriously, we have to prepare for this as they say no hurricane,but you never know if it gains more intensity than what the forecast says.

[caribepr]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 63.0W or about 8.6 miles (13.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 78.3 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:18PM AST).

Ouch. Hate it when it says that! And pretty certain it will change, but as ever...we know what to expect! ANYTHING!

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS at 144h



Loop

[Jimsot]

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 63.0W or about 8.6 miles (13.9 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 78.3 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:18PM AST).

Ouch. Hate it when it says that! And pretty certain it will change, but as ever...we know what to expect! ANYTHING!

Results for Anguilla (18.2N, 63.08W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.2N, 63.1W or about 1.4 miles (2.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 78.6 hours (Saturday, September 10 at 5:36PM AST).

I win! Yikes!

[rainstorm]

i didnt say nate moving into mexico means maria hits anything. the only way maria is a threat is for nate to move west. should nate head north or northeast maria has no chance. lets face it, with or without nate ridging, based on the seasonal trend will be absent.

as we can see at 120 a strong trough is once again forming on the east coast.

What else is new this season. Regardless i just dont see how maria can continue much further westward with the weakness being left behind by katia.

euro may be onto something. maria's LLC appears to be ejecting from its convection which could mean it heads west as an open wave.

[Aric Dunn]

i didnt say nate moving into mexico means maria hits anything. the only way maria is a threat is for nate to move west. should nate head north or northeast maria has no chance. lets face it, with or without nate ridging, based on the seasonal trend will be absent.

as we can see at 120 a strong trough is once again forming on the east coast.

What else is new this season. Regardless i just dont see how maria can continue much further westward with the weakness being left behind by katia.

euro may be onto something. maria's LLC appears to be ejecting from its convection which could mean it heads west as an open wave.

its unlikely to open up to a wave unless convection stops developing. However the Euro is still the only model that really has the synoptic set up initialized at least more accurately.

[dwsqos2]

euro may be onto something. maria's LLC appears to be ejecting from its convection which could mean it heads west as an open wave.

I think that the European heatwave may have something to do with it.

[Blown Away]

its unlikely to open up to a wave unless convection stops developing. However the Euro is still the only model that really has the synoptic set up initialized at least more accurately.

The same EURO has 96L moving NE into the NGOM and it doesn't appear that will verify. IMO the GFS is king model!