ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#781 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:27 pm

12Z Euro, 120 hours, a weak system north of hispaniola (Euro has shifted north).

Looks like it is on a recurve track....following the NHC track closely.

Gustywind · #782 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:27 pm

07/1745 UTC 12.8N 43.2W T2.5/2.5 14L
07/1145 UTC 12.3N 41.0W T2.0/2.0 14L

#783 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:32 pm

Euro is out and has shifted east, so consensus is growing between GFS and ECMWF

Has it north of Hispaniola at 120 hours, but weak.

#784 Postby **JPmia** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:35 pm

looks like the models are agreeing on Maria getting to 70W and then making the turn.

#785 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:35 pm

12z EURO 144hr

slowly redeveloping over Turks and Caicos

#786 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:35 pm

Hmmm nevermind...Euro is tracking in WNW through SE Bahamas towards Southern FL with building ridge (exiting trough in the Northeastern United States) at 144 hours :eek:

HurricaneWarning92 · #787 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:37 pm

Story of the season... once again... :roll:

#788 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:37 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 14, 2011090718, , BEST, 0, 132N, 431W, 45, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

#789 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:38 pm

EURO 168hr

slowly on the upswing

Gustywind · #790 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Some very strong ridging to the NNW of it right now... would be surprised to see much north component for the next 24 to 36 hours.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF

So Aric what is your best guess for the path? Do you tkink that given the upper levels pattern that the Leewards could "escape" from this possible threat? Thanks for input

we appreciate daily.
Gustywind

#791 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:38 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote::uarrow: Story of the season... once again...

I erased that...check again. It's approaching SE Florida at 168 hours...but it is weak. A deep system would undoubtedly recurve you would think, even this one looks like it may turn NW east of Florida again with the weakness lingering.

HurricaneWarning92 · #792 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote::uarrow: Story of the season... once again...

I erased that...check again. It's approaching SE Florida at 168 hours...but it is weak. A deep system would undoubtedly recurve you would think.

ah i see now. Spoke too soon... heads for us.. :eek:

.... but weak, you are right.

Aric Dunn · #793 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:43 pm

looks just like the last run just a little closer to Florida this time.

#794 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:looks just like the last run just a little closer to Florida this time.

Seems to be more ridging though, as it bends back WNW a little once north of Hispaniola. That is a little different.

#795 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:47 pm

Looks like it turns east of Florida again...192 hours. Similar to Irene with this track.

It shift right some at the end from the 00Z away from Florida.

#796 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:48 pm

192hr

weakness saves Florida again

HurricaneWarning92 · #797 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:49 pm

Now thats the story of the season... :lol:

Aric Dunn · #798 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:looks just like the last run just a little closer to Florida this time.

Seems to be more ridging though, as it bends back WNW a little once north of Hispaniola. That is a little different.

12z ends up being about 50 miles SSE of 00z at 192 hours... its about 12 hours slower though this run for closest approach to Florida.

00z 192 hrs
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

12z 192hrs
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

#799 Postby **Caribwxgirl** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:57 pm

Given the disparity with some of the models and the variation in forecast strength...this may just be one that will have us guessing until the last minute or looking back and asking "how in the world did it end up there"

#800 Postby **Caribwxgirl** » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Caribwxgirl wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Low level center is shooting out ahead of the convection now due to the strong low level flow. you can see the LLC riding just south of the 13N line and seems since it has become detached the last few hours is heading basically due west. The appearance from this morning seemed to show a 280 to 285 heading but it now appears that it was the convection building to the north then being blown off while the LLC has been heading nearly due west. doing a long loop from late last night it is likely the center reformed in the last burst of convection early this morning and since has starting out running the convection. this is also why the models seem to indicate keeping the system weak. The ridging to the north is quite strong all the way to about 65W ( at the moment).

loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html

http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1893/rgbl.jpg

So how do you think that will affect the next advisory?

probably wont change anything this advisory but if it continues to out run convection and stay on a more westerly shift then gradual track shifts are likely and intensity would come down if it gets too far out ahead of the convection.

Guess its a wait and see then.

ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Re:

Re: Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Who is online