ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Maria is generally moving towards the SE CONUS and looks to stay just offshore, it seems odd that 96L would move NE towards the NGOM at the same time Maria is moving NW towards the same general area? IMO 96L goes into Mexico, just makes sense.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
12Z UKMET... final position is just east of Tampico, Mexico
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 19.5N 93.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2011 19.5N 93.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2011 20.2N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2011 20.5N 92.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.09.2011 21.0N 92.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2011 21.7N 92.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2011 22.7N 93.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2011 23.6N 93.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2011 24.7N 93.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2011 24.8N 94.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2011 24.3N 95.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2011 23.5N 95.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2011 22.6N 96.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2011 22.0N 97.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 19.5N 93.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2011 19.5N 93.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2011 20.2N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2011 20.5N 92.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.09.2011 21.0N 92.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2011 21.7N 92.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2011 22.7N 93.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2011 23.6N 93.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2011 24.7N 93.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2011 24.8N 94.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2011 24.3N 95.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2011 23.5N 95.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2011 22.6N 96.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2011 22.0N 97.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 071810
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 12 20110907
180030 2220N 09001W 9699 00361 //// +216 //// 020014 014 023 003 01
180100 2218N 09002W 9700 00360 //// +218 //// 008015 015 021 004 01
180130 2217N 09003W 9698 00362 //// +217 //// 004015 016 021 004 01
180200 2216N 09004W 9700 00361 //// +218 //// 006015 015 018 002 01
180230 2214N 09005W 9700 00360 //// +216 //// 006017 018 017 002 01
180300 2213N 09006W 9699 00361 //// +219 //// 000017 017 017 001 01
180330 2211N 09007W 9699 00362 //// +220 //// 001017 017 017 003 01
180400 2210N 09008W 9699 00362 //// +220 //// 358016 016 020 001 01
180430 2209N 09009W 9704 00356 //// +222 //// 356015 015 020 001 01
180500 2207N 09010W 9703 00357 //// +223 //// 005014 014 020 000 01
180530 2206N 09011W 9698 00362 //// +226 //// 007010 012 018 002 01
180600 2205N 09012W 9696 00365 //// +223 //// 008009 013 022 001 01
180630 2203N 09013W 9709 00353 //// +224 //// 337008 010 014 002 01
180700 2202N 09014W 9691 00369 //// +225 //// 341007 008 013 001 01
180730 2201N 09015W 9701 00359 //// +228 //// 344007 007 009 001 01
180800 2200N 09017W 9702 00359 //// +225 //// 346008 008 011 001 01
180830 2159N 09018W 9694 00366 //// +225 //// 351007 007 010 001 01
180900 2158N 09019W 9705 00355 //// +228 //// 353006 006 006 002 01
180930 2157N 09020W 9701 00359 //// +232 //// 016003 004 008 001 01
181000 2156N 09022W 9695 00363 //// +235 //// 035004 004 014 001 01
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 12 20110907
180030 2220N 09001W 9699 00361 //// +216 //// 020014 014 023 003 01
180100 2218N 09002W 9700 00360 //// +218 //// 008015 015 021 004 01
180130 2217N 09003W 9698 00362 //// +217 //// 004015 016 021 004 01
180200 2216N 09004W 9700 00361 //// +218 //// 006015 015 018 002 01
180230 2214N 09005W 9700 00360 //// +216 //// 006017 018 017 002 01
180300 2213N 09006W 9699 00361 //// +219 //// 000017 017 017 001 01
180330 2211N 09007W 9699 00362 //// +220 //// 001017 017 017 003 01
180400 2210N 09008W 9699 00362 //// +220 //// 358016 016 020 001 01
180430 2209N 09009W 9704 00356 //// +222 //// 356015 015 020 001 01
180500 2207N 09010W 9703 00357 //// +223 //// 005014 014 020 000 01
180530 2206N 09011W 9698 00362 //// +226 //// 007010 012 018 002 01
180600 2205N 09012W 9696 00365 //// +223 //// 008009 013 022 001 01
180630 2203N 09013W 9709 00353 //// +224 //// 337008 010 014 002 01
180700 2202N 09014W 9691 00369 //// +225 //// 341007 008 013 001 01
180730 2201N 09015W 9701 00359 //// +228 //// 344007 007 009 001 01
180800 2200N 09017W 9702 00359 //// +225 //// 346008 008 011 001 01
180830 2159N 09018W 9694 00366 //// +225 //// 351007 007 010 001 01
180900 2158N 09019W 9705 00355 //// +228 //// 353006 006 006 002 01
180930 2157N 09020W 9701 00359 //// +232 //// 016003 004 008 001 01
181000 2156N 09022W 9695 00363 //// +235 //// 035004 004 014 001 01
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
come on Nate come to Texas.....EURO more north pulling out of the BOC....

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
he will be eating a lot of dry air if he does...but hey if it slings some rain up this I am grateful...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 071820
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 13 20110907
181030 2155N 09023W 9705 00354 //// +233 //// 044004 004 016 000 01
181100 2154N 09024W 9701 00358 //// +230 //// 073003 003 016 001 01
181130 2153N 09025W 9694 00364 //// +234 //// 091003 004 016 002 01
181200 2152N 09027W 9701 00357 //// +235 //// 103003 004 017 002 01
181230 2150N 09028W 9700 00358 //// +233 //// 102004 004 017 001 01
181300 2149N 09029W 9703 00355 //// +236 //// 123005 005 016 002 01
181330 2148N 09030W 9696 00362 //// +237 //// 140004 004 017 001 01
181400 2147N 09032W 9693 00364 //// +235 //// 150003 004 010 002 01
181430 2146N 09033W 9700 00357 //// +235 //// 187003 004 011 002 01
181500 2145N 09034W 9697 00359 //// +233 //// 148003 004 011 002 01
181530 2144N 09035W 9702 00355 //// +230 //// 127005 006 014 001 01
181600 2143N 09037W 9700 00356 //// +225 //// 114006 006 016 001 01
181630 2142N 09038W 9701 00356 //// +225 //// 107006 006 016 004 01
181700 2141N 09039W 9696 00359 //// +225 //// 106005 005 019 004 01
181730 2140N 09040W 9699 00356 //// +224 //// 107005 005 018 004 01
181800 2139N 09042W 9699 00356 //// +225 //// 118005 005 022 002 01
181830 2138N 09043W 9700 00354 //// +224 //// 118005 006 018 004 01
181900 2137N 09044W 9699 00354 //// +226 //// 121007 007 016 004 01
181930 2135N 09045W 9699 00354 //// +225 //// 113007 007 017 001 01
182000 2134N 09047W 9699 00354 //// +225 //// 112008 008 018 002 01
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 13 20110907
181030 2155N 09023W 9705 00354 //// +233 //// 044004 004 016 000 01
181100 2154N 09024W 9701 00358 //// +230 //// 073003 003 016 001 01
181130 2153N 09025W 9694 00364 //// +234 //// 091003 004 016 002 01
181200 2152N 09027W 9701 00357 //// +235 //// 103003 004 017 002 01
181230 2150N 09028W 9700 00358 //// +233 //// 102004 004 017 001 01
181300 2149N 09029W 9703 00355 //// +236 //// 123005 005 016 002 01
181330 2148N 09030W 9696 00362 //// +237 //// 140004 004 017 001 01
181400 2147N 09032W 9693 00364 //// +235 //// 150003 004 010 002 01
181430 2146N 09033W 9700 00357 //// +235 //// 187003 004 011 002 01
181500 2145N 09034W 9697 00359 //// +233 //// 148003 004 011 002 01
181530 2144N 09035W 9702 00355 //// +230 //// 127005 006 014 001 01
181600 2143N 09037W 9700 00356 //// +225 //// 114006 006 016 001 01
181630 2142N 09038W 9701 00356 //// +225 //// 107006 006 016 004 01
181700 2141N 09039W 9696 00359 //// +225 //// 106005 005 019 004 01
181730 2140N 09040W 9699 00356 //// +224 //// 107005 005 018 004 01
181800 2139N 09042W 9699 00356 //// +225 //// 118005 005 022 002 01
181830 2138N 09043W 9700 00354 //// +224 //// 118005 006 018 004 01
181900 2137N 09044W 9699 00354 //// +226 //// 121007 007 016 004 01
181930 2135N 09045W 9699 00354 //// +225 //// 113007 007 017 001 01
182000 2134N 09047W 9699 00354 //// +225 //// 112008 008 018 002 01
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
clfenwi wrote:12Z Euro 120h
[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/18/090712euro120h.gif/][http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/3365/090712euro120h.gifurl]
close but the ridge it building right on top of him....man I need just a few more 100 miles...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Blown Away wrote:Maria is generally moving towards the SE CONUS and looks to stay just offshore, it seems odd that 96L would move NE towards the NGOM at the same time Maria is moving NW towards the same general area? IMO 96L goes into Mexico, just makes sense.
not only does it makes sense but that's what usually happens. as always it will be interesting to see future runs but it's pretty tough to argue with precedent, especially if a center develops way down at a super low latitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon

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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 071830
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 14 20110907
182030 2133N 09048W 9700 00351 //// +226 //// 112009 010 019 002 01
182100 2132N 09049W 9699 00353 //// +227 //// 109010 011 018 004 01
182130 2131N 09050W 9700 00351 //// +227 //// 110011 012 017 005 01
182200 2130N 09052W 9699 00352 //// +225 //// 109011 012 021 003 01
182230 2129N 09053W 9701 00349 //// +226 //// 118012 012 021 004 01
182300 2128N 09054W 9700 00350 //// +225 //// 116012 012 021 003 01
182330 2127N 09055W 9699 00350 //// +228 //// 117012 013 020 004 01
182400 2126N 09057W 9701 00348 //// +231 //// 120014 014 018 001 01
182430 2125N 09058W 9697 00351 //// +235 //// 124014 015 017 001 01
182500 2123N 09059W 9705 00343 //// +235 //// 126015 015 009 004 01
182530 2122N 09100W 9693 00354 //// +235 //// 129016 017 014 000 01
182600 2121N 09102W 9705 00344 //// +235 //// 131017 017 007 000 01
182630 2120N 09103W 9699 00348 //// +236 //// 135017 018 005 001 01
182700 2119N 09104W 9701 00345 //// +237 //// 139017 017 016 001 01
182730 2118N 09105W 9697 00349 //// +240 //// 136018 018 019 000 01
182800 2117N 09106W 9696 00349 //// +237 //// 132018 019 016 003 01
182830 2116N 09108W 9702 00343 //// +235 //// 130019 019 017 001 01
182900 2115N 09109W 9709 00336 //// +236 //// 126017 019 016 001 01
182930 2114N 09110W 9700 00345 //// +240 //// 123017 018 016 000 01
183000 2113N 09111W 9704 00341 //// +241 //// 133017 018 018 001 01
$$
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 14 20110907
182030 2133N 09048W 9700 00351 //// +226 //// 112009 010 019 002 01
182100 2132N 09049W 9699 00353 //// +227 //// 109010 011 018 004 01
182130 2131N 09050W 9700 00351 //// +227 //// 110011 012 017 005 01
182200 2130N 09052W 9699 00352 //// +225 //// 109011 012 021 003 01
182230 2129N 09053W 9701 00349 //// +226 //// 118012 012 021 004 01
182300 2128N 09054W 9700 00350 //// +225 //// 116012 012 021 003 01
182330 2127N 09055W 9699 00350 //// +228 //// 117012 013 020 004 01
182400 2126N 09057W 9701 00348 //// +231 //// 120014 014 018 001 01
182430 2125N 09058W 9697 00351 //// +235 //// 124014 015 017 001 01
182500 2123N 09059W 9705 00343 //// +235 //// 126015 015 009 004 01
182530 2122N 09100W 9693 00354 //// +235 //// 129016 017 014 000 01
182600 2121N 09102W 9705 00344 //// +235 //// 131017 017 007 000 01
182630 2120N 09103W 9699 00348 //// +236 //// 135017 018 005 001 01
182700 2119N 09104W 9701 00345 //// +237 //// 139017 017 016 001 01
182730 2118N 09105W 9697 00349 //// +240 //// 136018 018 019 000 01
182800 2117N 09106W 9696 00349 //// +237 //// 132018 019 016 003 01
182830 2116N 09108W 9702 00343 //// +235 //// 130019 019 017 001 01
182900 2115N 09109W 9709 00336 //// +236 //// 126017 019 016 001 01
182930 2114N 09110W 9700 00345 //// +240 //// 123017 018 016 000 01
183000 2113N 09111W 9704 00341 //// +241 //// 133017 018 018 001 01
$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Euro looks alot more reasonable. I never bought into this system making it to the northern gulf coast.
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- Jevo
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12z Euro +120 has 96L sharing some margaritas with the GFS in Old Mexico
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:Euro looks alot more reasonable. I never bought into this system making it to the northern gulf coast.
never say never... it's early September and plenty of time for change.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
That vortex which was down near 19.7N/92W earlier is gone. Shot off to the northeast and is dissipating. Rotation persists west of there but I don't think we'll have a TD for another 24 hrs at least. Good chance of a TS by Friday. It's encouraging that the new Euro made a major shift westward to Mexico in good agreement with the GFS. Don't need a hurricane in New Orleans or MS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 071840
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 15 20110907
183030 2112N 09113W 9691 00351 //// +240 //// 137017 018 018 001 01
183100 2111N 09114W 9634 00404 //// +235 //// 137017 017 017 001 01
183130 2110N 09115W 9698 00345 //// +239 //// 137017 018 017 000 01
183200 2108N 09116W 9701 00340 //// +241 //// 141018 018 021 000 01
183230 2107N 09117W 9704 00337 //// +242 //// 144019 021 023 000 01
183300 2106N 09119W 9693 00347 //// +241 //// 146020 021 023 001 01
183330 2105N 09120W 9698 00342 //// +240 //// 145020 021 023 000 01
183400 2104N 09121W 9700 00340 //// +240 //// 146021 022 025 001 01
183430 2103N 09122W 9687 00350 //// +241 //// 149022 024 026 000 01
183500 2102N 09123W 9703 00336 //// +242 //// 146023 025 026 000 01
183530 2101N 09125W 9700 00338 //// +240 //// 147023 024 027 000 01
183600 2100N 09126W 9701 00335 //// +240 //// 147023 023 025 001 01
183630 2059N 09127W 9698 00338 //// +240 //// 146024 024 026 000 01
183700 2058N 09128W 9704 00332 //// +240 //// 146024 026 025 001 01
183730 2057N 09129W 9695 00339 //// +240 //// 145025 025 027 000 01
183800 2056N 09131W 9703 00332 //// +240 //// 143024 025 027 000 01
183830 2055N 09132W 9707 00326 //// +240 //// 143025 026 027 000 01
183900 2054N 09133W 9701 00331 //// +240 //// 147027 028 028 001 01
183930 2053N 09134W 9701 00331 //// +240 //// 147027 029 029 000 01
184000 2052N 09135W 9699 00333 //// +240 //// 148027 028 028 002 01
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 15 20110907
183030 2112N 09113W 9691 00351 //// +240 //// 137017 018 018 001 01
183100 2111N 09114W 9634 00404 //// +235 //// 137017 017 017 001 01
183130 2110N 09115W 9698 00345 //// +239 //// 137017 018 017 000 01
183200 2108N 09116W 9701 00340 //// +241 //// 141018 018 021 000 01
183230 2107N 09117W 9704 00337 //// +242 //// 144019 021 023 000 01
183300 2106N 09119W 9693 00347 //// +241 //// 146020 021 023 001 01
183330 2105N 09120W 9698 00342 //// +240 //// 145020 021 023 000 01
183400 2104N 09121W 9700 00340 //// +240 //// 146021 022 025 001 01
183430 2103N 09122W 9687 00350 //// +241 //// 149022 024 026 000 01
183500 2102N 09123W 9703 00336 //// +242 //// 146023 025 026 000 01
183530 2101N 09125W 9700 00338 //// +240 //// 147023 024 027 000 01
183600 2100N 09126W 9701 00335 //// +240 //// 147023 023 025 001 01
183630 2059N 09127W 9698 00338 //// +240 //// 146024 024 026 000 01
183700 2058N 09128W 9704 00332 //// +240 //// 146024 026 025 001 01
183730 2057N 09129W 9695 00339 //// +240 //// 145025 025 027 000 01
183800 2056N 09131W 9703 00332 //// +240 //// 143024 025 027 000 01
183830 2055N 09132W 9707 00326 //// +240 //// 143025 026 027 000 01
183900 2054N 09133W 9701 00331 //// +240 //// 147027 028 028 001 01
183930 2053N 09134W 9701 00331 //// +240 //// 147027 029 029 000 01
184000 2052N 09135W 9699 00333 //// +240 //// 148027 028 028 002 01
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