ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

So we have Nate now??

Unofficially now,but the 4 PM CDT hour will have the first official advisory.

[HurrMark]

Surprising...doesn't look like a tropical system at all (although the rotation looks better in the last hour or so)...looks more frontal in nature. Of course, there have been plenty of "ugly"-looking storms in the past that were upgraded, and if the NHC feels it qualifies as a TS, it should do so...looks like a Mexican threat right now more than anything else.

[Air Force Met]

We have west winds found by recon!

Finding west winds were never going to be a problem. There is most certainly a closed low. That's not the issue. The issues are 1) Is it tropical enough and 2) Is it organized enough.

Frankly...only the NHC will determine that and to be honest...that can vary between forecasters. One person sitting the desk may think it doesn't meet the definition then their relief does. 96L is very subjective right now...and the "matter of opinion" is something the NHC will have to address (which is one of the reasons we have had so many jump straight to TS).

[maxintensity]

This is not even a fair fight anymore. GFS punked out euro once again. It's getting ugly now.

[Air Force Met]

So we have Nate now??

Unofficially now,but the 4 PM CDT hour will have the first official advisory.

OK...I'm really shocked. I will be interested to see who is writing the 1st advisory and I will listen to the conference call to listen to the reasoning behind this. Must be the high winds they found.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 071930
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1930 UTC WED SEP 7 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NATE (AL152011) 20110907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110907 1800 110908 0600 110908 1800 110909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 92.5W 20.0N 92.6W 19.5N 92.9W 19.1N 93.2W
BAMD 20.2N 92.5W 19.9N 92.9W 19.5N 93.6W 19.3N 94.3W
BAMM 20.2N 92.5W 19.8N 92.7W 19.2N 93.4W 18.7N 94.2W
LBAR 20.2N 92.5W 20.3N 92.6W 21.2N 93.0W 22.4N 93.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS 59KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 54KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110909 1800 110910 1800 110911 1800 110912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.7N 93.4W 18.6N 94.8W 18.5N 98.5W 19.6N 104.9W
BAMD 19.1N 95.0W 19.2N 96.7W 19.4N 99.9W 20.4N 104.7W
BAMM 18.2N 94.8W 17.5N 96.7W 16.9N 100.8W 17.8N 107.5W
LBAR 24.3N 92.7W 29.6N 88.7W 37.5N 79.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 65KTS 52KTS 44KTS
DSHP 62KTS 65KTS 52KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 92.5W DIRCUR = 110DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 20.5N LONM12 = 93.3W DIRM12 = 103DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 93.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM

[bigdan35]

Good ole Joe

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Son of Lee threat to central Gulf coast late in weekend, Maria may be a problem for areas affected by Irene, at least to the Bahamas






http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[South Texas Storms]

So we have Nate now??

Unofficially now,but the 4 PM CDT hour will have the first official advisory.

OK...I'm really shocked. I will be interested to see who is writing the 1st advisory and I will listen to the conference call to listen to the reasoning behind this. Must be the high winds they found.

AFM, please tell me that at least deep south TX has a chance to get some rain from this?

[bigdan35]

wasn't the gulf suppose to shut down after the 7th








http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[South Texas Storms]

Did they run the 18z tropical models again with the new location of Nate?

[cycloneye]

Did they run the 18z tropical models again with the new location of Nate?

Yes, location and strengh.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, please tell me that at least deep south TX has a chance to get some rain from this?

Perhaps a little...but I don't think the EURO is right...never have. There is a LOT of dry air camped over the Gulf and I just don't see it modifying quick enough.

[South Texas Storms]

Thank you Luis. I wasn't sure as I didn't see the 18z model image posted here.

[cycloneye]

New graphic with now storm 15.



Saved image.

[jes]

I'm completely confused ---- are you saying the GFS track is correct and Nate is going to Mexico?

[South Texas Storms]

AFM, please tell me that at least deep south TX has a chance to get some rain from this?

Perhaps a little...but I don't think the EURO is right...never have. There is a LOT of dry air camped over the Gulf and I just don't see it modifying quick enough.

I only have a little hope for this one giving us some relief. Do you think the WGOM is shutting down after this system?

[Jevo]

We have west winds found by recon!

Finding west winds were never going to be a problem. There is most certainly a closed low. That's not the issue. The issues are 1) Is it tropical enough and 2) Is it organized enough.

Frankly...only the NHC will determine that and to be honest...that can vary between forecasters. One person sitting the desk may think it doesn't meet the definition then their relief does. 96L is very subjective right now...and the "matter of opinion" is something the NHC will have to address (which is one of the reasons we have had so many jump straight to TS).

AFM Decoded

Avila/Pasch = Yes
Stewart/Bevin/Landsea= No

The rest are a toss up

[ROCK]

This is not even a fair fight anymore. GFS punked out euro once again. It's getting ugly now.

Hmmm lets see.....the GFS never saw Don and Arlene in the carib...only a few sprinklers....the GFS totally tanked on the Irene sending it into NGOM, FL like 15 runs in a row..... Regardless of what 96L does the GFS has had far more issues this year after its upgrade.

[South Texas Storms]

This is not even a fair fight anymore. GFS punked out euro once again. It's getting ugly now.

Hmmm lets see.....the GFS never saw Don and Arlene in the carib...only a few sprinklers....the GFS totally tanked on the Irene sending it into NGOM, FL like 15 runs in a row..... Regardless of what 96L does the GFS has had far more issues this year after its upgrade.

Rock, you think the 12z Euro is right? You still have hope for this system?

[bigdan35]

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http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/